Randall Cobb 2015 Free Agent Profile

The Green Bay Packers had the league’s MVP running the show on offense with the hard-nosed Eddie Lacy and underrated pass blocking to support him, but Aaron Rodgers’s main weapons were his two wide receivers, which formed the best duo of the 2014 season. According to Pro Football Focus, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson had the two highest WR ratings in the NFL, as Rodgers had a 134.3 QB Rating when throwing it to Cobb and a 128.2 rating when targeting Nelson, who is his favorite.

Although Nelson had 151 targets to Cobb’s 127 to maintain his status as the team’s No. 1 receiver, Cobb was nearly as impressive as the unquestioned top-ten wideout. He was one of the league’s best safety valves, showing off his versatility by lining up in the slot, the outside, and in the backfield, establishing himself as a damaging threat in any role the Packers gave him pre and post-snap.

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Per Advanced Football Analytics, only Kenny Stills, who had the advantage of just 82 targets and less attention, had a higher catch rate among qualifiers last season than Cobb. The Packers No. 2 wideout hauled in 71.7% of all passes thrown at him, just ahead of other standouts such as Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr. (the three other players with a catch rate of at least 70%).

Cobb has stated his desire to remain with the Packers ahead of his impending free agency, but there’s a good chance he won’t get his wish. I think it’s extremely important for the Packers to do what they can to keep him around, because even though they have Rodgers and depth at receiver, they shouldn’t lose a true star like Cobb.

If they let him go this offseason, then they would be limited as a passing attack, and Cobb was a big reason for their ability to compete with the Seattle Seahawks defense. Against teams with top outside corners, Cobb is extremely important, because it’s difficult to cover someone that quick and agile one-on-one. As we saw in the game against the Dallas Cowboys, he supplements his YAC ability with ball skills, toughness, and sharp and smart route-running. He’s a clean receiver who is more than just an explosive guy, as evidenced by his catch rate.

The Packers have needs around their roster and could still build their secondary, but the fact of the matter is that they are a much more complete team than they were last season. After all, that’s how they went from a one-and-done playoff team into a squad that was a miracle comeback away from facing a team they beat earlier in the season in the Super Bowl. If they can add better run defenders at linebacker and replace Tramon Williams with a better corner, then the Pack would be scary.

These ideas cost money, and that’s money that would be spent on Cobb in order to keep him around. However, keeping Cobb is worth it, because you can’t underestimate how much a team’s strength, such as the Packers pass defense, compensates for a team’s weaknesses. Without Randall Cobb, the Packers would have to ask a lot from Davante Adams in the midst of tough coverage on Nelson, since it’s clear to me that Cobb’s work underneath and after the catch take a lot of stress off of Nelson. Adams is good, but it’s risky for a Super Bowl contender to let one of its five most important players go.

There’s no way to project how much money Cobb is looking for or if the Packers will be stingy with him, but it’s clear that Cobb would be a massive catch if he hits the free agent market. Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Maclin, and Dez Bryant are among the other big-name impending free agents at wide receiver, but they have even less of a chance at hitting the open market than Cobb. Thomas and Bryant are better, but if the Packers don’t re-sign Cobb, he would be the best free agent available.

The fact that he led all receivers in WR Rating shows you just how valuable Cobb was on the elite Packers offense, and he was arguably one of the best ten receivers in the NFL last season based on his 70+% catch rate and 10.1 yards per attempt, which was tied with Nelson for fourth in the NFL.

His versatility, explosiveness, and ability to both move the chains and function as a playmaking threat make him just as valuable as Nelson to the Packers.Traditional shutdown CBs can shut down Nelson, but players as quick as Cobb are nearly impossible to cover one-on-one. Case in point? He never caught less than three passes in a game last season, so he was never rendered a complete non-factor.

What kind of money could Cobb fetch from the Packers or any other team? Well, per Over The Cap, Nelson is the eighth-highest paid receiver per year after signing his extension before the season, while former Packer Greg Jennings earns $9 million per year- he’s a prime restructure candidate– after signing his free agent deal a few years ago upon joining the rival Minnesota Vikings.

Nelson’s deal was seen as team-friendly, and Cobb would have to take less per year as the No. 2 receiver in the offense if he chooses to re-sign with Green Bay. It’s unknown if he has the skill-set to consistently function as a No. 1 receiver on the outside, but explosive offenses like the Packers don’t care about the No. 1 or 2 designation; they care more about playmaking ability and results, especially since these teams generally already have a true No. 1 guy.

Cobb is most attractive to a contender, so, no matter what, he probably would make less than Nelson, though he has a great chance to make more if he hits the open market. This is especially true is all of the other top options at the position are re-signed or franchised, thus making Cobb all the more valuable due to a shortage of supply.

Dec 21, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Green Bay Packers defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-3. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, I can’t see Ted Thompson letting Cobb go, because it would be an unnecessarily risky move for the Green Bay Packers, even if Rodgers is so good that he can handle the loss by moving forward with Nelson and the young guys on O.

I would be shocked if Rodgers doesn’t lobby hard for the Packers to keep the star wideout around, as Cobb has proven to be a red zone threat and huge performer.

Rodgers’s injury was the team’s biggest loss among many in the PackIRs season of 2013, but the offense looked a lot less effective without Cobb drawing mis-matches. The Packers got a glimpse of life without him, and I don’t think it’s wise to break up an elite WR duo with the Packers extremely close to the big prize.

Maybe more importantly, the Packers must look at the landscape in the NFC and realize that they’ll need to be as explosive as possible on offense in order to compete with the Seattle Seahawks, especially the Seahawks, as Cobb and the New England Patriots showed, are only vulnerable to those WRs blessed with shakes and short-area quickness who don’t need time to get open (Nelson is a guy who needs a little bit of time to break loose). Cobb is one of the best WRs with this playing style, and the Packers have to understand his value under that scope.

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