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New England Patriots, Shane Vereen split seems inevitable

By Kevin Parvizi

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It’s difficult to project what the New England Patriots will do with their impending free agents, because aside from the guaranteed retaining of star safety Devin McCourty (either through a new contract or, more likely, the franchise tag to elongate the negotiation period and ensure his stay on the roster), everything else is up in the air. Contract talks with Darrelle Revis will ultimately decide how much cap flexibility the Patriots will have to keep their own guys, because, realistically, it’s hard to see them being notable players in free agency this year if they keep Revis.

Restructures with veterans Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo could also be in the cards, and cap savings from those two contracts could allow the Patriots to keep some of their other impending free agents. Ace kicker Stephen Gostkowski will most likely be re-signed, but Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Dan Connolly, and Akeem Ayers are notable free agents with unknown futures.

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Much of the focus has been on the two running backs, since Ridley has shown he can be a feature back in this league and was playing well before suffering a season-ending injury last year. Meanwhile, Vereen was one of the stars of the Super Bowl, and his explosiveness in the passing game makes him a valuable wrinkle in an offense.

Given the Patriots cap concerns, it will be hard enough for them to keep Vereen, and it’s starting to seem like it won’t be possible for the team to keep him under contract this offseason. The Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe reported yesterday that Vereen is looking for a whopping $5 million per year on his next contract, and this would put him just outside the top ten among running back contracts per year.

That’s obviously a ridiculous demand that won’t be met on the free agent market, since Vereen missed 11 games in 2012 and 2013 before playing a full slate of games last year. He’s never had 150 touches in a season or 100 carries, so he’s a pass-catching back with decent-but-not-great rushing ability who fits in as a valuable third-down contributor.

It’s far more likely for Vereen to make $3.5 million per year, which is exactly the type of money both San Diego Chargers RB Donald Brown and Philadelphia Eagles standout scat back Darren Sproles make on the three-year contracts they signed in free agency last year. There’s simply no justification for Vereen making more than either of them, because while he’s younger than Sproles, he doesn’t have as much of a track record. And while he’s more explosive and talented than Brown, the former Indianapolis Colts committee back is a more consistent player on the ground.

The Patriots can’t afford to keep players who are dead-set on hitting the open market, since the sad reality is that stacked contenders like the Pats, Denver Broncos, and Seattle Seahawks (as we saw last year with Michael Bennett) are forced to keep players who will take hometown discounts. With Revis and McCourty as clear priorities, the Patriots don’t have much room to navigate financially, and, if it comes down to it, I’m guessing they’d rather have Ridley.

While Vereen is a phenomenal pass-catcher with plenty of upside on passing downs due to his YAC ability and the fact that he had 52 receptions last year, Ridley is more important to this organization. Sure, Ridley has fumbling issues, but he’s their most consistent rusher and gives the team key balance. As we have seen ever since he emerged in 2012, the Patriots are better off when he’s used as a workhorse, since he can wear defenses out between the tackles or break off nice chunks of yardage when bouncing outside after finding a crease.

With an average of 4.1 yards per carry last season, Vereen has shown that he can be an adequate rusher, but, with his injury history in mind, teams would definitely prefer him in the passing game. While the Patriots surely love his versatility and ability to split out wide as a pass-catcher to create mis-matches against linebackers with his speed and quickness, he’s more of a luxury player for a team with a quarterback like Tom Brady who can use almost anyone to create a mis-match.

Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots running back Shane Vereen (34) against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I find it interesting to note that Shane Vereen was drafted higher than Ridley in the 2011 class, and he’d be an excellent addition for a team like the New York Giants, since he can operate as a safety valve or playmaker in the passing game and has useful rushing ability.

After all, he did notch 4.7 yards per carry back in 2013, so while he is a limited rusher who shouldn’t be asked to carry the ball ten times per game, he can give you something different on five or so carries.

Vereen knows he can easily make more than what the Patriots are willing to give him, simply because the Pats don’t know if they can afford to make a competitive offer. Every year, contenders have to pick and choose which key players leave, and Vereen make sense as a casualty this year.

Simply put, the expected cost won’t match up with the value he’ll bring to the team over the value someone else can bring to the table. If someone like James White can develop on passing downs, then the Patriots won’t miss Vereen as much, though his versatility certainly did bring something fresh to the table on offense.

The New England Patriots didn’t keep Danny Woodhead a few years ago, possibly because of the upside Vereen showed in 2012, and it seems like they won’t slap more value on Vereen.

He won’t get his $5 million, but the fact that he wants that much means he’s looking to start a bidding war to see just how much teams value his upside as a pass-catcher. He should make Sproles money, but he can’t expect more than that. Of course, nobody can blame him for seeing what’s out there, since his value is at a high after his Super Bowl performance.

Next: Where do the Patriots rank among the best franchises in history?

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