Philadelphia Eagles can stay put and get Marcus Mariota

You’ll find a thousand articles arguing that Chip Kelly should trade up to make Oregon’s Marcus Mariota a Philadelphia Eagle. And a thousand arguing that he’d be a fool to do that. And another thousand debating whether or not he will. How about this: Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles can stay right where they are and draft Marcus Mariota with 20th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

It may seem preposterous to think that a guy currently being discussed as a potential #1 overall pick and who plays the single most valuable position in sports would ever drop to the Eagles at #20. We do this to ourselves every year:

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“Will Jerry Jones trade up to get Johnny Manziel?”

“If he falls past Cleveland at #4 he will.”

“Wow the Cowboys pick is coming up and Manziel is still falling! Jerry is gonna get his guy.”

“Unbelievable! He fell all the way to the Cowboys. How lucky are they?!”

“Wait. Zack Martin isn’t Johnny Manziel.”

Okay. I admit that Marcus Mariota isn’t Johnny Manziel (Heisman aside.) But are you familiar with Aaron Rodgers?

The #24 pick back in 2005 was considered a possible #1 overall pick all the way up until the morning of the Draft. Why did he fall? A combination of the 49ers choosing to go with Alex Smith, a bunch of teams not feeling like they needed a QB, and a few whispers about Mr. Discount Double-Check being merely a system quarterback.

Geno Smith: Another example of a guy who, three months out, looked like a certain top 10 pick.

Teddy Bridgewater: A top 5 pick right up until that fateful Pro Day a year ago.

It happens all the time.

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Now, it would be foolish to make the argument that because other quarterbacks have fallen in the Draft so will Marcus Mariota. After-all, so many quarterbacks are rumored to go high… and they go high. But here’s why Marcus Mariota has more in common with the guys I’ve just mentioned than he does with those quarterbacks:

1. Mariota is a system quarterback. There is much debate about whether he can be more, but there’s no question that, at this moment, you can’t load up the tape and watch Marcus Mariota perform in a pro style offense. He rarely threw from a crowded pocket. He rarely threw into a crowd. There’s simply not a lot of tape showing off his anticipation as a thrower.

Perhaps teams will come away from the pre-draft process believing he’ll develop. Perhaps they won’t. But the fact remains, as ESPN Todd McShay pointed out, “He just doesn’t have the experience.”

2. Mariota’s personality is already being questioned. It was June of last year when Buzz Bissinger’s now infamous report came out asserting that Nick Foles was too mild-mannered to be a premiere QB in the NFL. “No fire,” Bissinger wrote. “Like if you punched him in the stomach, he might apologize to you,” an NFL scout said. “I just don’t know if he’s that alpha male that you’re looking for. This kid’s a kind of fly on the wall kind of guy.” Bissinger on Foles? No. An anonymous NFL scout on Marcus Mariota.

These questions never get answered until a player has played in the league. But the questions, most certainly, effect draft stock.

Jan 12, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) runs the ball against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2015 CFP National Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Ohio State won 42-20. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Teams get comfortable with the idea of taking a certain player or one of a few players that they’re fairly sure will be available to them. They spend their resources scouting and analyzing that small group.

When a player starts to tumble on draft day… teams are more inclined to stick with their board and take the player they’ve come to know well than to make a spur of the moment game-changing decision. No matter what Kevin Costner’s “Draft Day” might have us believe. Championships are won in the middle rounds of the draft; Jobs are lost in the first round.

Add to that the modern idea that a first round quarterback is expected to contribute immediately… and teams will shy away from a player, like Mariota, that has to learn to play in an NFL system. That has to learn how to call plays out loud. And learn how to stand in the pocket. And learn how to huddle. Things the PAC-12 star never did. Teams will love Mariota’s talent, but ultimately decide it’s too big a risk in the first round.

So there he’ll be. At #20. And Chip Kelly will think, “Who needs to huddle?”

You’ll hear it asked a thousand times between now and Draft Day… “What do the Eagles need to do to get Marcus Mariota?” The answer? Hand in a card.

Next: Is it Mariota worth trading up for?

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