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Green Bay Packers already massive winners after Randall Cobb deal

By Kevin Parvizi

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When free agency is all said and done, most of us like to recap the craziness by naming people early winners and losers before the players hit the field, and the Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team” is a perfect example of why these designations are generally taken with a grain of salt. And yet even before free agency itself has opened, the Green Bay Packers look like big winners after somehow managing to keep Randall Cobb off of the open market.

As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported yesterday, Cobb will make $40 million over the next four seasons as the team’s “Z” and slot receiver to Jordy Nelson, who actually makes less money per year after taking a team-friendly contract in 2014. But the fact that Cobb is making more money per year doesn’t do justice to the gesture he made by taking less money to stay with the Packers, since he could have easily made more money on the open market. With cap-wealthy teams like the Oakland Raiders set to pursue him, he could have easily made $11 million.

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No matter what Cobb chose, he was going to leave free agency as a winner. He would either make big bucks from a bad team like the Raiders or stick around in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers‘s No.2 receiver. Since many believed the Packers would never give him more money than Nelson, the fact that he’s able to stay in Green Bay at $10 million per season makes him a winner.

Cobb has a chance to compete for championships over the next four seasons, and he could definitely put up some more monster numbers with Rodgers after he caught 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. He’s also just 24, which means that he’ll be 28 when he hits the free agent market for a second time, thus ensuring that he’ll be in a position to nab a second big payday in his career.

It’s easy to sit there and say that the “smart” choice was for Cobb to pick the Packers, but nobody really knew if the Packers were willing to pay him enough money. $10 million is certainly a fair price for Cobb, who had to be willing to take a little less money to remain on a contender.

So how did the Packers win this deal? While they are down $10 million per season, they also get to keep one of the NFL’s best receivers, and Cobb is clearly one of the team’s most important players. We saw how much his injury in 2013 hurt this team, as it gave the Packers less options on offense. Cobb is one of the most versatile players in the league, and he showed it by lining up out wide, in the slot, and even in the backfield last season.

One of the best receivers in the league at finding open space, Cobb is extremely difficult to cover, because he’s quick, he averages at least 14 yards per reception, and he can make defenses pay after the catch. Moreover, he isn’t your average 5’10”, 192-pound receiver who plays the slot, as he consistently racks up touchdown receptions. Cobb fights for the ball, and that adds to the many areas in which he wins.

Per Pro Football Focus, the two wide receivers with the best QB Ratings when thrown at were Cobb and Nelson, and Cobb was actually first in the league with a 134.3 WR Rating (Nelson’s was 128.2). That shows you just how valuable he is to the Packers offense, because he and Nelson work in tandem. Nelson needs more time to get open on the outside, and both he and Cobb clear out space for each other by operating in different areas.

Of course, Nelson can play the slot when needed, as, per PFF, he was targeted 30 times when in the slot. However, Cobb is one of the best players in the NFL when lined up inside, as he had 106 targets from the slot, and his ability to dominate inside or outside allows the Packers to give defenses many different looks. Cobb is a jack-of-all-trades who can burn defenses before and after the catch, and, as we saw against the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs, he’s turned into an excellent route-runner.

Dec 28, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) during warmups prior to the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 30-20. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

According to Advanced Football Analytics, Randall Cobb caught 71.6% of everything thrown at him, and his career catch rate is above 73%. It’s rare to find someone with his playmaking ability who can consistently move the chains as well as he does, and while Rodgers certainly plays a big part in that, Cobb is a unique talent in his own right.

Nelson is the guy the Packers like to feed deep, but Cobb has shown that he can use his long speed to break some plays loose if they don’t respect his ability to go over the top of a defense.

At $10 million per season, Cobb makes a little bit more money than Nelson per year and matches Brandon Marshall in the salary department at the wide receiver position.

I’d say that’s a fair price for both sides, especially since Cobb will be just 25 when the season opens, meaning that he’ll only continue to improve in the finer points of the game (hand usage, drops, route-running) as he goes through his contract.

The Green Bay Packers have locked up one of the game’s most versatile receivers through the prime of his career, and Cobb is one of those rare talents who can either move the chains or a break off a big gain. He gets the money he was looking for from the Packers, and he doesn’t have to suffer through a losing season for at least another four years.

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