What are the Jacksonville Jaguars getting in Julius Thomas?

The Jacksonville Jaguars signed former Denver Broncos’ tight end Julius Thomas on the first day of NFL free agency. The six-foot-four inch, 250 pound pass receiver inked a five-year contract with Jacksonville worth an average of $9.2 million a year with $24 million guaranteed according to NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport. The question now becomes what type of returns can the Jacksonville Jaguars expect to see from this investment?

The 26-year old Thomas is a very accomplished red zone target, catching 12 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. In fact, Thomas is the first tight end in NFL history to accomplish this feat. Unquestionably, Thomas provides instant credibility to a Jaguars’ offense that according to teamrankings.com ranked dead last in red zone touchdown percentage in 2013, and 31st in this category last year.

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Thomas obviously breathes life into a rather dormant position for the Jaguars. Current Jaguars’ tight end Marcedes Lewis is on the wrong side of 30 and had his least productive year since his rookie season in 2006. Jacksonville’s other tight end Clay Harbor is a career backup that has never recorded more than 300 yards and three touchdowns in any of his five seasons as a pro.

As far as I can see, it looks like Thomas is just scratching the surface of his football abilities. Thomas was a former college basketball player that was drafted in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL draft after playing just one season of college football at Portland State University. Furthermore, Thomas only played in a total of five games during his first two years with the Broncos. Although Thomas is a two-time Pro Bowler, the Jacksonville Jaguars are getting a raw talent that has only three full years of football playing experience under his belt.

While there is plenty of upside in the signing of Julius Thomas, he does come with his share of negatives as well. Thomas has been dogged by ankle injuries early in his career as his progress was derailed in 2011 and 2012 because of various ankle ailments. In 2014, Thomas suffered a severe left ankle sprain during Denver’s November 16th contest against St. Louis. In the four games that Thomas played following this setback, he was held out of the end zone in every game.

Thomas’ pesky ankle problems limited his playing time and effectiveness in his last game in Denver as the Broncos came up short against Indianapolis in the divisional playoff round. Thomas registered seven catches for 53 yards against the Colts, but 32 of those yards came on one pass play early in the first quarter. In addition to his well-chronicled health concerns, Thomas is known as a fairly weak blocker. His presence on the field may do little to help Jacksonville’s 21st ranked rushing attack, or the league high 71 sacks that the Jags allowed in 2014.

It is also fairly safe to assume that Thomas will not produce the same robust numbers that he did while playing for the prolific Broncos’ offense. Former Broncos’ teammate Eric Decker saw his numbers dip after he signed on with the New York Jets in 2014. This past season, Decker amassed 326 fewer receiving yards and six fewer touchdowns than he did in 2013 when NFL legend Peyton Manning was throwing him the football.

In order to pry Thomas away from a winning team like Denver, I think Jacksonville had no choice but to overpay for him. Julius Thomas has his flaws, but I think this signing was a nice step in the right direction for the Jacksonville Jaguars. In my opinion, Thomas is a major upgrade at the tight end position and will serve as a great addition to a young receiving core if he can stay healthy.

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