Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce ready to be 3rd-best TE?

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce immediately looked like a high-upside “move” TE when he was drafted in 2013, but we didn’t get to witness his brilliance until a year later as he needed microfracture surgery to repair and injury that was much more severe than initially thought. Kelce showed no ill-effects of the injury, though, in a truly dominant 2014 season, leading the Chiefs passing attack with 67 receptions for 862 yards and five touchdowns with some jaw-dropping plays mixed in.

Heading into the 2015 season, Kelce is coming off of a first season in which he had just two games with less than three receptions, and this is despite the fact that the Chiefs eased him into things in his first season because of the major injury he had to recover from.

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Kelce told Cleveland’s 92.3 The Fan, via Pro Football Talk’s Josh Alper, “My knee still wasn’t full strength last year which is why I’m excited about this year. Now I get the time to take a full offseason, get my legs ready, get my upper body and my explosiveness back that I know I had. I didn’t really feel that comfortable on the field, but we made it work.”

Per Kelce, the Chiefs didn’t feel uncomfortable with unleashing him until later in the season, and this explains why his rate statistics blow his counting stats out of the water. 67 catches for 862 yard and five TD is always impressive, especially since he easily beat “No. 1 receiver” Dwayne Bowe in all of those categories last year, but it doesn’t come close to being a true testament to Kelce’s ability to posterize defenders or explode past them.

According to Advanced Football Analytics, Kelce led all tight ends in EPA per game, WPA per game, and catch rate. Second in yards per target with 10.0 YPT, Kelce caught a whopping 77.1% of everything thrown at him despite averaging a healthy 12.9 yards per reception. And yes, he averaged 0.3 yards per catch more than Bowe, which shows you just how good he is at making plays at the position.

Nobody in their right mind will argue that he’s better than Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, since those are clearly the top two TEs in the league (in reverse order). But Kelce played so well last season that he could easily be the NFL’s third-best tight end next season. Not only is he incredibly efficient and capable of making plays on his own, but he’s also proven to be a quality blocker and will have an expanded role in that facet of the game next year with Anthony Fasano gone.

A clear three-down TE who can play just about anywhere on the field, Kelce was flat-out monstrous after the catch. Per Pro Football Focus, the 25-year-old Cincinnati product put up a nasty 7.5 yards after the catch per reception with only Luke Willson (less than half of the target) having more. By the way, he also forced a ridiculous 17 missed tackles to show off his strength and agility (fourth in this stat, per PFF), and he would have had more if given more than just 83 targets.

It’s insane to think that Travis Kelce needed only 83 targets to put up 67 receptions for over 800 yards, and that’s the most remarkable thing about his numbers last season. He was sixth among players at the position in receptions and fifth in receiving yards despite the fact that he was targeted the least among all TEs in the top ten for receptions last season.

Kelce was the clear star of the Chiefs subpar passing attack last season, and he should be one of the NFL’s brightest stars at any position next season. It’s clear that a TE who is 6’5″, 260 pounds and can run a 4.61 forty is a special talent, and he’s a very well-rounded player, too. Not only is he well-rounded in the sense that he is a physical and gifted run blocker, but he also wins in so many different ways as a receive.

Versatile, Kelce can play in-line or in the slot, and he’s also shown that he can make plays after the catch or function as a more a safety valve, as evidenced by his position-high catch rate. He’s not quite the specimen Gronkowski is (or the blocker), and he might not be as natural at pass-catching at Graham. But the fact that Kelce, who needed to be eased in after microfracture surgery which normally saps out most of a player’s athletic ability and agility, was able to force 17 missed tackles on just 67 catches last season is astounding.

The Kansas City Chiefs were wise to take things slowly with Kelce, because the health of a likely elite player is more important than the instant benefits this player would bring. Therefore, the Chiefs should be praised both for the prudent manner with which they handled the injury, as well as their foresight in drafting him and understanding how special of a player he is. Kelce has all the tools, and the “mini-Gronk” comparisons are apt, even if they are rather unimaginative.

Dec 14, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) waits in the tunnel to be introduced before the game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 31-13. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Based on the sick, league-leading stats Kelce put up as a rookie, as well as his physical tools and the fact that he’ll be healthier and more prepared next season, he should emerge as a true blue-chip player for a Chiefs offense that has a true No. 1 receiver in Jeremy Maclin. Both Maclin and Kelce are explosive weapons who can help carry the accurate Smith, who will surely rely on the trio of Jamaal Charles, Maclin, and Kelce in lieu of downfield passes.

At this point in time, I think it’s too soon to say that Kelce is the third-best tight end in the NFL, but I will be shocked if he isn’t the third-best player at this valuable position by the time the 2015 is over. The numbers, storyline, tape, and measurables all back him up, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s as high as No. 2 on the list of best TEs in the league.

I don’t think he’ll unseat Graham for the spot behind Gronk, but Kelce is one of those players who seems to have limitless potential. After all, he’s only played for one season and is just 25. Those gaudy rate stats will go down with his decreased role, but he’ll undoubtedly have an even more profound impact on the entire offense.

Next: Should Chiefs target Hundley?

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