Philadelphia Eagles: What is Marcus Mariota Worth?

Beauty, it is said, is in the eye of the beholder.

Okay. So for the sake of discussion let’s say beauty is Marcus Mariota. And the beholder is, say, Chip Kelly.

What’s the right price (and how much is too much) for the Philadelphia Eagles to pay to get Chip his beauty?

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We can attack this question from a number of angles:

Just how good is Marcus Mariota, anyway?
Where might he be taken in the draft?
What can the Eagles afford to lose?

Also… probably more angles. But at some point you just have to say, ‘that’s all the angles I wanna cover.’ Three is my limit.

Naturally, I am going start with #2:

Where might Mariota get drafted?

Well, I wrote several weeks ago that Marcus Mariota would slip and slide and tumble his way all the way down into Chip’s lap at #20. I’m going to stand by that because, well, I’m stubborn. And because Mariota’s Pro Day last week relieve any of the concerns teams have about his ability to step into the NFL and perform immediately. And, mostly, because I still believe it to be true. Mariota will fall on draft day.

Or perhaps I should say: Mariota would fall on draft day. Because, you see, the Eagles might not let him fall.

So the question persists: Where might he be taken in the draft?

Common wisdom says that #2 is the first pressure point, what with Jameis Winston potentially having been taken first by the Buccaneers and with a quarterback-needy team on the clock in the form of the Tennessee Titans.

What would the Eagles have to do to get this pick?

Simple answer? Too much.

More complex answer? Enough to cripple both the team’s future and the confidence of a young quarterback for whom you’ve just leveraged your entire foundation as a franchise.

The Titans have all the bargaining power here. They’re sitting pretty. If they truly believe Mariota is a franchise quarterback, they simply listen to offers until they’re on the clock and, unless someone blows their minds in a Saints-get-Ricky-Williams sort of situation, they draft him.

If they aren’t convinced that Mariota is the game-changer for them… no one else has to know that.

And in the meantime, they can float rumors left and right about teams looking to slide up into that slot to drive up competition among potential trade partners.

These rumors are already floating around. Look, CBS’ Jason La Canfora wrote a whole article about the teams that could take Mariota at #2.

Oh. And the Titans have the added advantage of knowing that any team desirous of moving up for the pick must (ostensibly) believe that Mariota is a franchise quarterback. And if the price for #2 is high? The price for a franchise quarterback at #2? Much higher.

Jan 12, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) leaves the field following his loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-20 in the 2015 CFP National Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

When the Washington Redskins traded up to #2 to get RGIII in 2012 they traded three #1 picks and a #2 pick.

That’s a lot.

But that’s not the half of it. Because the Redskins were trading up from #6. The Eagles sit at #20.

So if we break out our handy dandy NFL draft pick trade value chart we see that the #2 pick is worth 2600 points.

The #6 pick is worth a still hefty 1600 points. The Redskins also threw in their second pick (520 points) and two more first rounders. Assuming those were going to be mid-round picks… that’s another 2000 points.

The Redskins traded 4,120 points worth of draft value to move up to #2 in 2012. Let’s call that ballpark market value when you’re trading up to grab a player that you believe is a franchise quarterback.

The Eagles pick at #20: Worth a mere 850 points. If we add in their second pick this year the total is 1,230. We could throw in the Eagles’ #1 pick next year and the following year. We’re at 3,230. We could close the gap by throwing in a third this year and a third next year and a second in 2017.

Three 1’s. Two 2’s. Two 3’s.

Too much.

Chip Kelly said last week that the Eagles would never mortgage their future to get one player. That trade? That trade is like buying high in a sellers market when the bank won’t… I know nothing about mortgages. Point is it would be awful for the future of the team.

Could the Eagles soften the blow by adding players to the trade in place of picks? Possibly.

Having secured Kiko Alonso in a trade and retaining the services of DeMeco Ryans, inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks could be dealt. He is cheap and has played very well in three seasons in the NFL. He’s going to cost a lot more money after next year and dealing him now would be wise if the Eagles don’t believe they’ll have the money available to keep him in Philly.

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Would the Titans be interested in Sam Bradford? Possibly. But there’s some thought out there that their love for Bradford is the reason that the Eagles went out of their way to acquire him.

That notion is absurd. The Titans, were that the case, would essentially be able to hold the Eagles hostage:

“Listen. We know that’s not your quarterback. So here how this is gonna go… you slide those first round picks over to us and you do it quietly. No sudden moves. Fletcher Cox? We’re gonna go ahead and take him. And if everything goes smoothly and you follow all our instructions… we’ll take Bradford off your hands for you.”

It’s a position into which no team would be foolish enough to put themselves. Chip Kelly obviously believes in Bradford enough that, if no trade occurs, he can be the guy.

I also don’t buy that the Titans are anxious to start their rebuild with a veteran QB with two major knee injuries under his belt and a $13M paycheck on the books when they have a cheap and intriguing quarterback on their own roster in Zach Mettenberger.

No matter what the scenario, the Eagles would be wise to refrain from any bargaining for the #2 overall pick. The price is way out of the range of what’s affordable.

The Redskins will take Marcus Mariota at #4 if he is available. So goes the rumor. I don’t believe it for a second. The Redskins have invested too much in RGIII to give up just yet. And they have watched a scrambling quarterback get hurt too much in these last few years to be willing to spend so much to grab another one. They would have, at that point, four top picks and a second pick invested in one position… and still not have a player that fits the kind of offense they seem intent to run.

What’s more likely is that these rumors are coming from a team like Jacksonville that wants in on the Mariota sweepstakes. If the world believes he’ll go at #4… people might come knocking on their door at #3.

Realistically, the next spot to look at is the Jets at #6. It’s the first place I believe Mariota has a legitimate chance to be taken.

The price tag for pick #6, as we mentioned before, is 1,600 points. Just about double the value of the Eagles pick at #20. But both the Eagles and Rams have hinted at the fact that the Cleveland Browns offered the #19 pick for Sam Bradford. Those rumors were confirmed by ESPN’s Adam Caplan. If the Eagles saw Mariota slip to #6 with the Jets on the clock and the Jets were looking to move the pick, the move would be pretty simple:

Trade Bradford to Cleveland for #19 and then package #19 and #20 (worth 1,725 points) for #6 (worth 1,600 points). Because they hold the leverage, the Jets might be able to squeeze another pick or a player away from the Eagles in a swap like that… but the terms are reasonable. The values add up.

The Eagles could get Marcus Mariota for a non-future-mortaging price at #6. It’s feasible.

If Mariota slips beyond #6 it could be quite a little draft-day-tumble. He could be available for the Eagles in a very palatable deal anywhere in the teens. Or they could just be patient and let him keep falling.

But assuming that they aren’t prepared to do that, let’s quickly look at angle #1: Just how good is Marcus Mariota?

Well, this is all about perspective, really. Beauty is to Marcus as beholder is to Chip. You remember.

Feb 21, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota throws a pass during the 2015 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

For the Eagles? Marcus Mariota could be very good. He’s a tremendous athlete with the ability to run the kind of tempo that Chip Kelly desires. He is a gifted and experienced director of a zone-read running game and makes smart decisions about when to pull the ball down and run. And when he runs? He’s really fast. And avoids the big hits.

He has massive holes in his tape both because of shortcomings and an un-NFL-like scheme at Oregon. Because of scheme, we really don’t get to see what Mariota looks like running through progressions and finding the second, third, or fourth receiver available on a given play. Because of lack of polish, we do get to see Mariota missing throws to open receivers much more often than we’d like to see in a top-1o pick.

In Philadelphia, Mariota can start early. Because there’s no other place in the NFL where he’d be asked to do quite so much of what he’s already been doing in college. And because Kelly knows Mariota and knows better than any other NFL coach what he can and can’t be asked to do right away.

From there? With a good line? And a good running attack? Sky’s the limit.

But, even with the friendly scheme in Philadelphia, the sky is far from a foregone conclusion for Mariota. He is not Andrew Luck. The concerns about his accuracy and his demeanor (is he too quiet, not alpha enough to be an NFL quarterback) are very real concerns. There are more obvious questions about his game than there were for a number of highly touted quarterbacks that haven’t fared well in recent years: RGIII being the primest of examples.

And those concerns, despite Kelly’s desire to assemble an all-Oregon team in Philadelphia, should absolutely limit any offer the Eagles might make to move up for Mariota.

Which brings us to angle #3: What can the Eagles afford to lose?

Sep 21, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly runs off the field waving to the crowd after the game Washington Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey G. Pittenger-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles have holes. Every team does. But for a team that has realistic goals of competing for a division title in 2015, some of the Eagles’ holes are rather massive.

There is no one alongside Malcolm Jenkins that has proven they can play safety at the NFL level.

The cornerback spot opposite free agent acquisition Byron Maxwell is up for grabs:

Walter Thurmond was added to compete with Brandon Boykin for the spot. The loser of that battle would likely play inside at nickel corner. But Thurmond has had trouble staying on the field. If he’s not healthy, Boykin would probably have to move back inside where he’s played his whole career. And the outside corner would be available to guys like Nolan Carroll and Jaylen Watkins… who couldn’t win the job last year in the worst secondary in the league.

Jeremy Maclin’s absence leaves a hole at WR. Jordan Matthews will produce out of the slot. But a set of outside receivers consisting of a fresh-off-of-a-miserable-2014 Riley Cooper and an almost-entirely-unproven Josh Huff hardly sounds promising.

With so many needs, and having already traded away a 2016 second-round pick in the Bradford deal, can the Eagles consider trading future considerations for a chance at Mariota?

What can they pay?

Bradford is certainly a price the Eagles can pay: Mark Sanchez is a veteran security net that has proven he can win in Chip Kelly’s offense and, of course, Mariota would be the long-term solution at quarterback.

Kendricks is a price the Eagles can pay. He and Fletcher Cox are both scheduled to make a lot of money next year and Cox is the better player. With Alonso available to play Kendricks’ position, he is a trade-chip that makes sense.

The #20 pick is certainly a price that can be paid. If Mariota were there at #20 no one could possibly fault the Eagles for taking him. So clearly there’s no harm in trading that pick for the ability to draft him.

And that’s it.

Bradford (or the potential pick that Bradford might yield,) Kendricks, and this year’s #1.

For my money, anything beyond that pushes dangerously close to mortgaging the future territory.

That’s something Chip has said this team won’t do.

And this might be the craziest thing I’ve written… but I believe him.

Next: Big Trade for Mariota?

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