2015 NFL Draft: Buyer Beware of First Round Running Backs

Amongst other labels, the 2015 NFL Draft is being hailed as the return of the star-caliber running back prospect. Both Melvin Gordon of the Wisconsin Badgers and Todd Gurley of the Georgia Bulldogs consensus first-round prospects.

While there’s limitless reason to believe in Gordon and Gurley as players, selecting a running back breeds a response of just two words: buyer beware.

Since 2009, a grand total of seven running backs have been drafted in the first round. Not a single one was selected on Day 1 of the 2013 or 2014 NFL Drafts.

That surprising trend exists for a reason.

In 2010, three running backs were taken in the first round. Just one was taken on Day 1 in 2011, and it took until pick No. 28 for Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram to come off the board.

In 2012, another three came off the board, including Trent Richardson at No. 3 overall.

Melvin Gordon is a phenomenal talent, but drafting either he or Todd Gurley should depend entirely on the supporting cast that’s currently available. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Of the seven running backs taken in the first round since 2009, only Ingram and Doug Martin are expected to be No. 1 on a depth chart in 2015. Ryan Mathews and C.J. Spiller have the talent to be started, but they’ve both been injury-prone.

Martin also fell victim to the injury bug, which puts his top-billing status in question for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Richardson, meanwhile, is headed to the Oakland Raiders to compete for a starting job.

Thus far, Richardson has a career average of 3.3 yards per carry.

Collectively, that seven-man group has a grand total of four 1,000-yard seasons. Martin and Spiller did it in 2012, and Mathews pulled it off in 2011 and 2013.

In 2014, nine of the Top 10 players in rushing yards were selected outside of the first round in the NFL Draft. Of the 13 players to rush for at least 1,000 yards, only Marshawn Lynch—a distant 2007 NFL Draft alum—was a first-round draft pick.

That’s not exactly what one would expect from of a group of first-rounders.

Recently, one thing has become perfectly clear: elite running backs are rarely found in the first round.

In 2014, nine of the Top 10 players in rushing yards were selected outside of the first round in the NFL Draft. Of the 13 players to rush for at least 1,000 yards in 2014, only Marshawn Lynch—a distant 2007 NFL Draft alum—was a first-round draft pick.

While the talent pool is deep and intriguing in 2015, taking a running back in Round 1 of the NFL Draft should be viewed as it is: a legitimate risk. Running backs are invaluable, but they’ve also proven to be better investments when selected in the later rounds.

The logic is simple and sound: unless a team already has an excellent offensive line, taking a running back in Round 1 is a dangerous move.

Gordon and Gurley are both intriguing talents, but adding a running back depends entirely on what a team can provide them with from Day 1. Unless a team has an offensive line in place that can create holes to hit, taking a running back is not worth the risk.

Come Thursday, April 30, it’s buyer beware for teams with a first-round draft pick and a running back on their wish list.

Next: How might the 2015 NFL Draft play out?

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