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Green Bay Packers: NFL Draft Strategy and Analysis

By Keegan Matheson

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With the 2015 NFL draft later this month, the Green Bay Packers have done well to leave themselves with a roster void of many desperate needs. Leading up to the draft in Chicago, I’ll be releasing an eight-part series detailing the 10-year draft history of Green Bay Packers’ general manager Ted Thompson, which began last week with a look at the quarterback position.

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The benefit of Thompson’s lengthy tenure with the Packers is that his previous classes can be looked at to develop his prototypes and tendencies at each position. In part one of this series, I highlighted that the five quarterbacks drafted by Thompson do not stray from the physical measurements of 6’2″, 220 pounds to 6’3″, 233 pounds, noting that his most recent “project” pick of B.J. Coleman could cause him to seek out a higher-floor prospect late in this NFL Draft.

Next up is the running back position, where the Packers already boast a strong combination of Eddie Lacy and James Starks atop their depth chart. James Starks is entering the final year of his contract, however, and with Lacy’s hard running style and history of concussions, Green Bay can still benefit from quality depth.

In March, I discussed the choice Green Bay may be facing at the position. Will they look to replace DuJuan Harris‘ role with a small and quick scat-back type, or will they add another back capable of featuring in a prominent, bell cow role should he need to? Undrafted free agent Rajion Neal, signed in 2014, will factor into this competition, as well, but this series will focus solely on the players selected between Rounds one and seven.

First, let’s look to the past:

Running back:  7 selections   —   Average of 0.7 selected per draft

  • 2007:  Brandon Jackson, Round 2 (63)  –  5’10”, 210 pounds  (4.54)
  • 2007:  DeShawn Wynn, Round 7 (228)  –  5’11, 232 pounds  (4.48)
  • 2009:  Quinn Johnson (FB), Round 5 (145)  –  6’0″, 250 pounds  (4.82)
  • 2010:   James Starks, Round 6 (193)  –  6’1″, 203 pounds  (4.50)
  • 2011:   Alex Green, Round 3 (96)  –  6’0″, 220 pounds  (4.45)
  • 2013:  Eddie Lacy, Round 2 (61)  –  5’11”, 231 pounds  (4.55)
  • 2014:  Johnathan Franklin, Round 4 (125)  –  5’10”, 205 pounds  (4.49)

Jan 11, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy (27) runs the ball in the 2014 NFC Divisional playoff football game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Prototype:

The running backs drafted by Thompson do not provide a set of dots that draw a straight line to a physical prototype for the Packers, but the team has found more success with backs who profile as decisive, punishing runners. While Thompson may be tempted to add a player with “something different” to a backfield already featuring Starks and Lacy, these seven names show that he has had little luck doing so.

Franklin was his latest attempt to add more of a speed and receiving threat to the backfield, but an unfortunate neck injury forced him into early retirement. 2011’s selection of the talented Hawaii back Alex Green brought excitement based on his great physical skills, but Green ran in a pass-happy spread offense with the Rainbow Warriors that often let him run 6-8 yards before seeing his first defender.

Ted Thompson‘s best moves at running back have clearly been the acquisitions of his current runners, but their bodies do not match up side by side. Due to this, I’ll suggest that his prototypical running back should be classified by style, not by physical measurements like it can be at other positions.

Both Lacy and Starks come with speed above 4.50 seconds in the 40 yard dash, but it is their ability to be quicker than fast that gives them success in Green Bay’s scheme. By shifting their weight side to side, they are able to maintain forward momentum and bowl over would-be tacklers. With Lacy’s low centre of gravity mixed with a powerful dropped shoulder, and Starks’ downward-tilting slam at impact, both profile as a fall-forward running back. They may not hit the home run often, but when four yards are given to them, they get at least five.  That is the Green Bay prototype at starting running back.

Aug 30, 2014; Columbia, MO, USA; South Dakota State Jackrabbits running back Zach Zenner (31) is tackled by Missouri Tigers safety Braylon Webb (9) during the second half at Faurot Field. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Impact on 2015 NFL Draft

Green Bay has some work to do on the other side of the ball before running back should even enter the conversation. The position likely won’t be touched until rounds 6-7, or through undrafted free agency.  Although John Kuhn is expected to return to the Packers, don’t forget about the fullback and H-back positions either, which feature heavily in Green Bay. Below is a list of players that could fit this Thompson mold in the mid-to-late rounds and beyond.

David Johnson:  6’1″, 224 pounds (4.50)  –  The Northern Iowa product could leave the board before Green Bay feels a need to address tailback. Johnson is a fall-forward back fitting the height, weight and speed parameters from above, and has flashed the ability to put his foot in the ground for a powerful one-cut run.

David Cobb:  5’11”, 229 pounds (4.81)  –  His 40-yard dash time shouldn’t be given too much weight, as he pulled up with an injury late. If Cobb can survive with NFL-level speed coming at him, this straight-ahead thumper has the potential of a starting-calibre chain mover. Like Lacy and Starks, his calling card is winning the extra yard.

Zach Zenner:  5’11”, 223 pounds (4.60)  –  This South Dakota State star is an underrated one-cut producer that could surprise late in this draft. Scouts have given him plus ratings in pass protection, and his ability to hit holes hard and dominate with a nasty stiff arm is exciting on tape. If Green Bay sticks to the pistol formation, a player like Zenner could replace John Kuhn if needed.

Matt Jones:  6’2″, 231 pounds (4.61)  –  Jones, out of Florida, profiles as a plodding grinder at the next level, which isn’t a bad thing. Like Lacy and Starks, Jones tilts his shoulders well at the point of contact and is rarely, if ever, pushed backwards. Like Zenner, he is a quality pass protector.

Jalston Fowler:  5’11”, 254 pounds (4.94)  –  Fowlers represents a potential “fullback of the future”.  That may be the last time you ever read that term! He doesn’t road-grate as much as I’d like, but he did well at identifying blockers and paving the way for some talented Alabama backs. His plus ratings in receiving and special teams could make him valuable as a late pick.

Josh Robinson: 5’8″, 217 pounds (4.70)  –  The Mississippi State bowling ball is built extremely low to the ground, but brings receiving potential to the table as well. He’s another back that pounds forward with some short-area wiggle past the line of scrimmage.

Marcus Murphy:  5’8″, 198 pounds (4.61)  –  Murphy, out of Missouri, plays much quicker than his 4.61-second 40-yard dash suggests. In Murphy, Green Bay would have an option if they chose to seek a running back in the mold of DuJuan Harris, who is now with the Minnesota Vikings. Murphy could contribute against slower linebackers in the passing game, and challenge for return duties on an NFL roster.

Overview:

Should Green Bay choose to address the position, the above names represent a small sample of possible candidates both in terms of physical makeup and playing style. Much like the quarterback position, Thompson has a low batting average, but his one hit has been a home run.

Aaron Rodgers and Lacy combine to produce one of the league’s most talented backfields, and have the potential to do so for several seasons. With the nature on the NFL, however, and the uncertainty of James Starks’ return, the Packers may look to get out ahead of the game by adding yet another pawn to Rodgers’ chess set.

Next: Packers draft history and analysis: Quarterback

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