Chicago Bears: Is Marcus Mariota the Answer?

The NFL Draft is on the horizon, with only a few weeks between now and commissioner Roger Goodell announcing the first pick of the draft in Chicago. With the draft in close proximity, comes the onslaught of gossip in the rumor mill. According to Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole, the Chicago Bears have shown interest in trading up for Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Last week, Adam Schefter of ESPN said on ESPN 1000 that the Bears were on Mariota’s list of pre-draft visits. It’s clear that general manager Ryan Pace is showing some interest in the highly-touted quarterback, but nobody is really sure how much. What will he want (or need) to give up to have a chance of snagging Mariota?

The answer is simple: stay put. Not because I think Mariota will trickle down to the Bears at No. 7, but because he’s not worth Pace’s time. Mariota is an intriguing prospect, having thrown for over 10,000 yards with 105 touchdown to complement a mind-blowingly low 15 interceptions during his three years for the Ducks.

He has also shown great running proficiency for a quarterback, rushing for over 700 yards and averaging at least five yards per carry each year. Mariota took home the Heisman Trophy last season, among other numerous awards, and has shown that he maintains a high quarterback IQ. So, with all of that said, why does this idea sound like an oncoming car crash waiting to happen?

Three main factors come into play: The Bears’ current QB situation, the price to pay for a shot at Mariota and the translation of his game to the NFL. Let’s start with the former.

January 1, 2015; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) against the Florida State Seminoles in the 2015 Rose Bowl college football game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears currently have Jay Cutler at the quarterback helm. He isn’t the best at the league in his position–and is going into the 2015 season on a short leash– but he certainly isn’t the worst, and certainly isn’t enough of a problem that there needs a complete and immediate positional overhaul.

He threw for 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, along with 3,812 yards last season, which really isn’t all that bad. The 12 fumbles he let up in 2014 are not attractive one bit, but it’s not like the Bears have Jamarcus Russell or someone of that standard starting at quarterback.

Cutler isn’t the answer for the Bears; he’s not going to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to Chicago. But, right now, he is much, much better than Mariota. If anything–at the very least–the Bears draft Mariota without trading down to develop behind Cutler, but I doubt that is a realistic scenario. Plus, Cutler’s inflated contract is one that few teams will want to be fiscally responsible for down the road if the Bears are looking to move him.

Secondly, to move up five spots for the second pick, the Tennessee Titans will probably ask for this year’s first rounder and a future first or second rounder at the absolute minimum–and likely Cutler as well. Recent history shows that this strategy has ultimately led to failure.

In 2012, the Washington Redskins traded three first-round picks and a second rounder to move up four spots (from No. 6 to No. 2) to draft Robert Griffin III. Aside from his rookie season, Griffin can arguably be deemed a bust for his draft position. Even for a guy who had a very high ceiling, giving up three first-round picks is almost unheard of to move up four spots. For Pace to do the same or similar would be downright stupid.

Lastly, the question of whether a guy from Oregon’s quick-paced spread offense can translate his game to that of the NFL’s is ever-looming. The spread offense focuses less on reading a play and more on getting a throw off quickly. It also emphasizes breaking plays quickly if the quarterback sees no receivers to throw to–something that some in the NFL scouting world feel is a big no-no for an NFL prospect.

As mentioned above about typical spread quarterbacks, Mariota also has a very small sample size when it comes to his ability to stay in the pocket long enough to let a play develop. It’s a problem that many dual-threat quarterbacks have coming out of the college game, and a problem that will not serve well against NFL defenses.

Many feel that the best quarterbacks are those who can throw the ball well and run a 4.5 40-yard time, but that’s simply not true at all. The best quarterbacks of this era – Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees – are all pocket passers with very little mobility. If Mariota can display some sort of consistent pocket presence, it will definitely boost his chances of achieving more success on the next level.

The problem with guys who rely on their legs too much is that they are at a higher risk of injury. Looking back at Griffin, he has essentially lost all confidence in his ability to run the ball–something that he seemed to work much in his favor his rookie year–as a result of multiple injuries sustained from just that: running the ball. Without his legs, Griffin looks like a much different quarterback (and not in a good way.)

The same scenario applies to Mariota. What if gets injured? What if he tears an ACL halfway through the season? Will he be the same ever again? This question is always big with dual-threat quarterbacks, and while Mariota is probably not as armed-and-ready with his legs than Griffin, the risk of injury is much higher with a Mariota-type quarterback.

The Bears should just wait until somebody better falls into their hands, whether it be via the draft or elsewhere. The only reason a team should draft a signal caller in the first round is if they are truly desperate for answers. Marcus Mariota is going to be a good and well-respected quarterback in the NFL, but he may not be the right fit in Chicago. Right now, the best answer for the Bears is Cutler.

Next: Chicago Bears: Top 5 Draft Needs

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