2015 NFL Draft sleeper: Running back David Cobb

The 2015 NFL Draft has been a distant dot on the horizon for two months now, but mercifully, the wait is nearly over. With the headline-grabbing names atop this class now analyzed to the smallest points of their games, this is a great time to look deep into the draft for everyone’s favorite prospect: the sleeper. For teams that swing and miss on top running backs like Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon, Minnesota’s David Cobb could be the mid-round sleeper that makes their entire draft.

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David Cobb does not enter the 2015 NFL Draft with the game breaking talents and “wow” factor you’ll find in round one, but he’s got a game that I absolutely love. When Cobb is given two yards, he takes four, and does it consistently. In 2014, Cobb set a Minnesota school record with 1,626 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.

Following his big year for the Golden Gophers, Cobb sparked some chatter in scouting circles with a fantastic showing at the Senior Bowl, rushing 11 times for 69 yards and showing improvement in the passing game. His flame quickly flickered, however, when an injury at the Combine led to a 4.81-second time in the 40-yard dash. He’s recently improved this to 4.65-seconds at Minnesota’s Pro Day, and was clocked as low as 4.58.

Standing at 5’11, 227 pounds, Cobb is not a jitterbug out of the backfield, but instead relies on fantastic balance while running between the hash marks and a more subtle form of agility. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com notes that 54% of Cobb’s yardage from 2013 and 2014 came after contact. This suggests to me that Cobb was not running through a parted sea behind elite offensive linemen, and this should remove any talk of his college numbers being inflated.

The subtle agility that I mention above makes Cobb extremely difficult to tackle unless he is met squarely and head-on. He maintains a low centre of gravity throughout his run, and as tacklers approach him from the side, he ever-so-slightly forces his weight towards the defender and blows through the arm tackle with momentum. Cobb does seek out contact, but pivotally, he does not do it in a destructive way. His fantastic understanding of body positioning will serve him very well as NFL defenders close with great speed from his flanks.

There are two points from the video above that I’d like to highlight. First, at the 28-second mark where Cobb takes the handoff eight yards from the goal line. As the edge rusher meets him uncontested in the backfield, take note of the way he dips his shoulder towards the tackle while maintaining is forward momentum, which ends in him carrying two defenders into the end zone.

You can see this again on a similar play at the 1:05 mark, where two defenders get their hands on David Cobb, but fail to impact his momentum or re-direct his run. This vision, along with the fact that he relies on consistent gains as opposed to infrequent home runs, leaves me confident that he can still succeed behind a substandard NFL offensive line. Coming out of college, Cobb’s game often reminds me of the Washington Redskins’ Alfred Morris.

Nov 29, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers running back David Cobb (27) carries the football during the first quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Now, before we let the trumpets sound too loudly, let’s tap the brakes and give some attention to why Cobb is not considered among the upper echelon of runners in this draft. Labelling a prospect as a “sleeper” is too often confused with a transcending knowledge that 32 NFL general managers haven’t picked up on yet, but that’s not the case. Cobb, like many sleepers, has an extremely strong game, but a handful of critical stumbling blocks that he must clear to succeed in the NFL.

Cobb’s first hurdle will be game speed, which I’m confident he can manage well. His 4.65-second 40-yard dash time isn’t damning, but he does play with smoother, curved “cuts” on the field, as opposed to a sharp jump that he accelerates out of. With linebackers and safeties closing on his edges much quicker in the NFL, will Cobb’s great balance hold up, or will they be able to get into the core of his frame and swallow him early?

He will also need to put in some serious work in the two trust categories: pass protection and fumbling. A running back will find themselves stapled to the bench if they allow clean shots on an Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, and Cobb’s six fumbles in 2014 would send him to the same fate.

Finding sleepers in an NFL Draft class is a fascinating game of if. If David Cobb can overcome these issues, he has the game to succeed as a featured runner in an NFL offense. One season in a split-duty role may best allow him to refine his game as another running back handles receiving and blocking duties, but the team that selects Cobb in the 3rd or 4th round will get a player with perennial 1,000 yard potential.

Next: 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Mariota to the Chargers

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