Should the Oakland Raiders trade down?

In most cases, fans usually clamor for their team to trade down and scoop up some more picks, and usually that’s a wise thing to hope for, as more picks equates to more chances to draft a quality contributor. It’s harder to find someone willing to trade up than trade down, but, according to CSN California’s Scott Bair, Oakland Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie stated that he’s received calls from teams interested in trading up for the fourth overall pick.

Of course, this interest in the Raiders first-round selection could be merely cursory, but maybe some teams are interested in shooting up the boards for an impact player. It’s unlikely that Marcus Mariota will still be available for teams to move up for at No. 4, but a team picking a few spots lower could try to spring a deal to secure Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr., Vic Beasley, or even a wide receiver (if they are that sold on one).

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The Raiders are one of those special cases in which a trade down might not be as desirable as it would for most other teams, and it has everything to do with their roster make-up. Let me ask you something. Who are the sure-fire difference-makers on this roster? I’m not asking for people who you think can be stars next season, but I am asking for players who are clear difference-makers at important positions.

Sio Moore, Derek Carr, and Latavius Murray are three players who have a shot at being star-quality players for the Raiders, but the only clear-cut playmaker on either side of the ball is Khalil Mack. He didn’t make many plays as a pass rusher last year, but anybody who watched him relatively closely last year understands his upside and his already-elite work in run defense.

But outside of Mack, the Raiders roster is filled with solid veterans (Justin Tuck and Malcolm Smith are two examples) or young, unproven players with potential (cornerbacks D.J. Hayden and T.J. Carrie come to mind in this category). Although the Raiders could use more solid contributors, it’s more important for them to try and grab franchise-defining talents.

Rebuilding teams with cap space can find solid players in free agency to plug up minor holes on the roster, but you have to find difference-makers in the draft; those guys are just too expensive to hunt for on the free agent market or are too difficult to coax (as the Raiders found with Randall Cobb and Ndamukong Suh). As with Cobb, most of these top free agents don’t even hit the open market anyway, making it unfeasible to expect to build a core of star talent through free agency.

An important question to mull over is this: Which teams would feasibly trade up for the Raiders first-round pick?

It’s hard to see a team picking in the 20s packaging a boatload of picks and almost mortgaging their draft for one player, since teams that made it into the playoffs generally have playmakers and are merely cash-strapped teams looking for a way to add solid contributors or boom-or-bust players. I think it’s more likely that a team picking in the top ten or 15 is interested in moving up for a top-five pick, since they could be looking to secure a quarterback or believe they are a Fowler or Beasley-type pass rusher away from contending and would like to secure that player.

As the saying goes, “it only takes one team”, and what favors the Oakland Raiders chances of trading down is the fact that a team with an already-high pick is the most likely candidate to trade for their selection. Trading with that sort of a team makes it easier for the Raiders to get a fair haul, because there’s less of a disparity between the value of the No. 4 overall pick and, say, the No. 7 pick, meaning that the team trading up doesn’t have to give as many additional picks up (oftentimes, trades involving picks are limited by the number of additional selections that the team trading up is willing- or able- to give).

Sep 21, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Oakland Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie before the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

That said, I still think the Raiders should think twice about trading down and should only do it if they still have a top-ten pick by the end of the trade and know they are getting the better end of the deal.

These are tough constraints, but you have to go back to the logic of the team trading up. See, the team trading up is moving up because they need a playmaker like Kevin White, Beasley, Cooper, or Williams. So do the Raiders.

While the Raiders could snag themselves a talented player later on in the top ten, there’s a difference between drafting Brandon Scherff or Shane Ray and Williams or Amari Cooper.

The latter players are better draft prospects and more likely to be impact players for the Raiders, though Scherff would be a nice selection if the Raiders traded down and wanted to build their line.

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