Oakland Raiders: Projecting Derek Carr’s 2015 Statistics

As the NFL season begins to kick into high gear with rookie camps happening and full team training camps on the horizon, it’s time to start looking at some of the important role players for the Oakland Raiders in 2015. Last season, then rookie quarterback Derek Carr was thrust into the starting role right from the start in week one against the Jets, where he played well in a close loss. Carr showed promise all year in 2014, and this season much is expected from Carr in terms of growth and leadership.

There is no doubt that starting week one in your rookie season at the quarterback position is no easy task, and as mentioned previously, Carr played well. He recorded a 94.7 QB rating per ESPN stats, much better than future H.O.F. QB’s Peyton Manning or Tom Brady in their first starts. While Carr’s season had several high’s and low’s in terms of performance, there were many factors that affected Carr’s play.

Defensive struggles, along with a poor rushing attack and offensive line play made it tough for Carr to play consistently.

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All of this plus the usual rookie learning curve reduced Carr’s overall statistics, but as any fan knows numbers alone tell only part of the story. Carr’s command of the offense and his read progression noticeably improved throughout the year; towards the second half of the season he was quickly diagnosing pressure and one-on-one matches to put the ball in the best place to succeed. Sure, he still made mistakes here and there, but the boneheaded rookie miscues were fewer in the last few months.

This fact is evidenced by one of the best performances of not only Carr’s season, but of any rookie in 2015: Week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers. Not only were Carr’s numbers excellent for any QB, let alone a rookie (22 of 28 for 254 yards, 3 TD’s, 0 Int’s and a 140.2 QB rating), but his status as the offenses’ clear leader became unquestioned. He showed that if given time he could pick a defense apart, and did so connecting on over 78% of his passes.

Carr finished the season with a very respectable 76.6 rating while throwing for over 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns. And while his season completion percentage was lower than what most teams would expect from a quality starter at 58.1%, there is no doubt his rookie season should have been considered a success.

This is especially true when you consider Carr had some of his best games against the league’s top passing defenses in 2014: 140.2 rating against the 5th ranked 49ers, 107.7 against the 4th ranked Chargers in Oct, and 89.6 against the 3rd ranked Bills, per ESPN Stats.

In those three games combined, Carr’s stat line was as follows: 57 for 96, 750 yards, 9 TD’s and 1 Int, which would qualify for a 111 QB rating. And it is no surprise that all of Oakland’s wins came in the second half of the season. All of the evidence shows that Carr got progressively more comfortable as time went on, not an automatic assumption for a rookie NFL QB (See 2013 version of Geno Smith).

Perhaps the greatest news is that the Raiders have seemingly gotten a lot better on offense, at least on paper. With the drafting of Amari Cooper and Clive Walford, the signing of Michael Crabtree, and the potential guys like Roy Helu Jr. and Latavius Murray bring at the running back position, Derek Carr is much more equipped with weapons this year than last year.

Add on any bonus playmaking they get from Trent Richardson, or Rod Streater as he comes back from injury in 2014, and you could see how good this offense could be in 2015.

Carr had some of his best games against the league’s top passing defenses in 2014: 140.2 rating against the 5th ranked 49ers, 107.7 against the 4th ranked Chargers in Oct, and 89.6 against the 3rd ranked Bills, per ESPN Stats.

Lastly, The Raiders made a smart move bringing in Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator. His ability to adapt to the players he has and the coaching experience he brings with him from the Eagles and Vikings offenses will bode well for Carr and the Raiders. Musgrave also has a ton of experience as a quarterbacks coach, mentoring guys like Matt Ryan in Atlanta several years back and recently coaching up Mark Sanchez in Philly last year.

It is expected Musgrave will be able to provide Carr with the same support and leadership while putting him and the offense in the best position to succeed. Musgrave should also excel at putting the running back, tight end and wide receiver groups into the right spots on the field to maximize speed and size mismatches. Don’t be surprised to see Walford start early and make a big difference in the passing attack: Musgrave could use him similarly to the way Zach Ertz was used in Philly, to stretch the defense and in the red zone.

The Raiders aren’t exactly facing a bunch of powder puffs in 2015, however. And while that goes for just about every team in the NFL nowadays due to parity, Oakland is tied for the 7th toughest strength of schedule this coming year, per John Breech of CBSSports.com. With opening games against teams like Baltimore and Cincinnati, it wont be easy for the Raiders and Derek Carr to get off to a fast start.

Considering all of the above information, I’d project Derek Carr to have fairly good numbers in his Sophomore season, a year many NFL players struggle in. The following statistics would fit into the category of a successful campaign in 2015:

63% completion percentage, 3,910 yards, 29 TD’s and 13 Int.

If he is able to produce these numbers or better, Carr would put himself in the position to potentially play in a Pro Bowl, and the Raiders might be looking at a playoff berth depending on what their defense can do.

Next: Oakland adds quality depth at RB

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