Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy worthy of top fantasy ranking?

With all major dates early in the NFL offseason now checked off, the focus of the football world begins to shift towards fantasy football where Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy has become the hottest commodity. Not only does ESPN rank him as their top fantasy back in their top-300 rankings, they list Lacy as the number one player overall. Known more for his reliability than his eye-popping fantasy numbers, will the Green Bay Packers star meet these expectations?

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The running back position entering 2015 is absolutely loaded with top-end talent, while valuable starters are sure to arise from situations such as Cleveland and Dallas, where teams await one back to emerge as their horse. To determine if Lacy is worthy of the top spot, however, we must first look at the players who trail closest behind.

Le’Veon Bell of the Steelers is obviously the nearest competition for the top spot. Bell is young and an elite runner, but most importantly, an elite receiver out of the backfield. Receiving statistics, especially in PPR leagues, give running backs great value as it keeps them involved regardless of the score or offensive game plan. As an example of the other side of this coin, a back like Alfred Morris loses value when his team falls behind as a pass-heavy strategy removes his impact from the game.

Unfortunately for his owners, Bell is facing a three-game suspension to begin the season which will hurt his value slightly. Past Bell, ESPN ranks Jamaal Charles third as another dual-threat option. Charles will enter the season at 28 years old and dealt with an ankle injury throughout 2014, limiting him to 1,033 yards. Will Charles regain his electric form with Kansas City, or is a minor regression in store?

Adrian Peterson comes in at number four as a relative wildcard following his missed season, followed by Marshawn Lynch at number five. With a similar running style to Lacy, Lynch is a great bet for consistent production but will enter the season at 29 years old with 300+ touches in each of his past four seasons. How much tread remains on Beast Mode’s tires? Arian Foster rounds out ESPN’s top six, but is also 29 and missed multiple games in 2013 and 2014.

Out of these five names and the talented runners that fill the top-15, someone will click. My issue with Lacy’s number one ranking has nothing to do with Lacy himself, but everything to do with the potential ceilings at play around him. If you’re looking for a safe bet on a great RB1, Lacy should be your top target, but for those owners seeking elite running back production, especially early in the season, you may be forced to roll the dice on another option.

If healthy, I project that Lacy’s rushing numbers will come in right around his career averages. A season of 1200 yards with 10 touchdowns would be considered a great success, but it’s Lacy’s receiving numbers that will determine his real fantasy value. He managed 42 receptions for 427 yards and four scores this past season, but some of that may be a product of the Packers’ top-heavy offensive attack.

As Aaron Rodgers gave a great deal of focus to Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy was often the third option on a screen or check-down route. 2015 should see Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers enter more prominent roles, however, while Ty Montgomery could enter the mix on screens and crossing routes. A more even spreading of the offensive duties could mean that Lacy is very close to his ceiling as a receiver.

Head coach Mike McCarthy has also shown little desire to give Lacy the touches that you might potentially see from other highly-ranked running backs. Lacy has gone over 25 rushing attempts just twice in his two-year career, and had 20+ carries only three times in 2014. While this keeps him fresh for the colder months at Lambeau, it also produces a fantasy football player that has given his owners little value in September.

September (6 career games): 212 yards – 3.12 YPC
October (8 career games): 662 yards – 4.44 YPC
November (9 career games): 718 yards – 4.35 YPC
December (8 career games): 725 yards – 4.90 YPC

Dec 21, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) hands the ball to running back Eddie Lacy (27) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Eddie Lacy should be the likeliest back to end the regular season in the top five fantasy rankings, but until his early-season performance and workload both increase, his ceiling may keep him just shy of the top spot. With the booming one-year ceilings of Bell, Charles, Peterson and Lynch, there are many moving parts around the quiet spot that is Eddie Lacy. One of those will likely top him by December, and I’d lean towards it being Bell.

The hesitation remains Bell’s three-game suspension, but when compared with Lacy’s past performances over the first three games, is there much difference? Owners who are able to grab Bell atop their draft could circle back for a third or fourth tier veteran starter at the position to keep them afloat until week four. That player won’t tilt the field too great, but someone like a Frank Gore or Jonathan Stewart should fare well enough early on.

This is, of course, the ultimate nit-pick conversation. It’s difficult to go wrong with any of these names, and thankfully for the Green Bay Packers, a strange annual tradition still takes place each September. Players gather to take the field for real football games, and in the real world, the Packers are perfectly content with Lacy as their RB1.

Next: Packers may have CB sleeper in Ladarius Gunter

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