New England Patriots: Attempt More Two Point Conversions

By Dan Schmelzer | May 23, 2015

Last week, the NFL owners voted in approval for the Competition Committee’s proposal to change the rules when it comes to extra point conversions. This change includes moving one-point kick conversion attempts back to the 15-yard line, while two-point conversations remain at the two-yard line. Also, if the defense causes a turnover on either a blocked kick or an interception/fumble on a two-point attempt, they are now allowed to return the ball the other way for two points, instead of the play being blown dead.

This rule change is unlikely to have a huge effect to the game, as NFL kickers can hit 33-yard field goals with ease a majority of time. However, it does become a bit more of a difficult kick, and that could easily bring more issues. The idea behind this rule is to bring more excitement to the extra point attempts, and it will undoubtedly do that.

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Last season, NFL kickers missed only five extra points in 1,267 attempts, a 99.6 percent conversation rate. It is very difficult to find the exact stats for conversation rate for 33-yard field goals. However, John Urschel of The Players’ Tribute used a formula developed by Torin K. Clark, Aaron W. Johnson and Alexander J. Stimpson for the Sloan Sports Conference to determine that extra points taken from the 15-yard line will have a success rate of 92.8 percent.

It is hard to use a formula to determine how successful field goal attempts can be, as weather and field conditions will certainly play a role. Urschel figured for a grass surface which is less than ideal for kicking conditions, but with ideal weather conditions. “Let’s assume it is a typical day,” Urschel wrote. “Temperature above 50 F, no rain or snow, winds lower than 10 MPH and altitude less than 4,000 ft.”

This is not a perfect success rate, but it something to give us an idea. If NFL kickers will now succeed on somewhere around 92.8 percent of extra point attempts, teams should be strongly considering two-point conversions. Simply put, it is no longer an automatic play.

Brian Burke figured that from 2000-2009, NFL teams were successful on the two-point conversion 46.3 percent of the time. Those numbers were a little bit skewed because of botched kick attempts, so Burke took those out, coming up with a 47.9 percent success rate on all “normal two-point conversions.” Those numbers are a little bit dated, but it is a nice sample size to use.

So it does not take a mathematical genius to see that by using these success rates, the two-point conversion is the better play with the new rules changes. Using Urschel’s extra point method we can round-up and expect to score 93 points on 100 extra point kick attempts. With Burke’s data, going for two 100 times would result in 96 points. Yes, a small difference, but NFL teams should look to take any advantage they can find.

Will teams look to use this system in their favor? That is the big question. NFL coaches are conservative by nature, rarely looking to change the traditional ways that the game is played. I would not be surprised to see each team regularly trot their kicker out for extra point attempts, but that does not mean that it is the right move to make.

The New England Patriots for example, appear to be the perfect team to capitalize on this new rule change. Head coach Bill Belichick is a more aggressive coach than a far majority of his counterparts, and I would not be surprised to see him look to find an edge here.

Aug 22, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick talks with quarterback Tom Brady (12) during a break in the action as they take on the Carolina Panthers in the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Say what you want about the Patriots, but they have had one of the best offenses in the NFL each season in recent memory. Their 29.3 point scored per game last season was the fourth highest total in the NFL, and as it has been for a while, the Patriots’ offense was centered around the short passing game.

Quarterback Tom Brady does an incredible job of sitting back and making plays with underneath routes. The Patriots have had the best short passing game in the NFL for a long time, and that could be an extremely valuable weapon for them in the two-point conversion range.

Wide receiver Julian Edelman has incredible speed and quickness that allows him to seemingly be able to get free on a short slant or out route any time that he wants. Edelman is a very dangerous weapon in the Patriots’ aerial assault, and could be almost unstoppable in the two-point play.

On top of Edelman, tight end Rob Gronkowski is a physical freak with an incredible combination of size, strength, speed and athleticism. He is one of the best red zone receivers in the NFL, and simply throwing the ball up to him in the back of the end zone is a good play. It takes a special player to go one-on-one against Gronkowski in short space, which could make him another incredible player in the two-point conversions.

Dec 14, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman (11) catches the ball to score a touchdown in front of Miami Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes (21) during the third quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

Between Gronkowski and Edelman, the Patriots have two receivers who are absolute match-up nightmares in the short passing game, which could easily translate to success on two-point conversions. Running back LeGarrette Blount is also a strong inside runner, and handing the ball to him to simply pick up two yards seems like a good bet as well.

With their weapons on offense, I feel pretty optimistic about the Patriots’ ability to succeed on two-point attempts at a higher conversion rate than 47.9 percent that was found in Burke’s data. That percentage is a league-wide number, and the Patriots’ offense would at least be above average and potentially elite at the two-point play.

Backing up the extra point attempt may not seem like a huge deal, but it is going to make for a more difficult kick. The data backs up going for two in this new scenario, and the Patriots have the offensive ability to make it an even more obvious play.

Belichick has never been afraid to be different before, and I do not see why he would be here. The Patriots would very likely score more points if they go for two a majority of the time. It seems like an obvious move to make.

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