Green Bay Packers: Stats show that offense needs balance

By Keegan Matheson | Jun 2, 2015

The Green Bay Packers enter 2015 with one of the league’s stronger offenses, but let’s not allow that to keep us from nitpicking.

While the combination of Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson gave Aaron Rodgers an elite one-two punch in 2014, their play resulted in the Green Bay Packers featuring one of their most top-heavy passing offenses since 2008. For this unit to grow, that must change.

On December 14th of 2014, a loss to the Buffalo Bills exposed that the Packers could be tamed when their passing game was treated as a two-man show by a quality defense. In the 21-13 loss, Green Bay received 96 yards on seven catches from Cobb and 55 yards on five catches from Nelson, but little more. Eddie Lacy‘s two catches for 11 yards ranked third on the team as Buffalo overwhelmed Rodgers with coverage and dictated the game’s flow.

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Depth was the primary issue in 2014, with Jarrett Boykin falling off the face of the earth and, quite frankly, wasting a roster spot. Davante Adams impressed as a rookie with 38 catches for 446 yards and three touchdowns., coming on stronger late in the season. But a pedestrian impact from the tight end position often left dump-offs to Lacy as the most viable third option.

I hesitate to fully buy in to the mantra that playoff football is a “different game.” The team with the most points after 60 minutes still advances, but the primary difference between regular season and January football is the amount of game tape that opponents have on one another. In 2014, Green Bay gave their opponents three skill-position threats to stop in Lacy, Cobb and Nelson. If the club can move that number to four or five, their attack will be substantially more versatile.

The statistic that I’ll use to highlight this is the cumulative production of Green Bays number one and two receivers in terms of yardage. This number will be compared to the cumulative production of Green Bay’s third and fourth receivers within the Aaron Rodgers Era (2008-2014).

2008 1/2: 154 rec 2,304 yards 14 TD
2008 3/4: 72 rec 669 yards 7 TD

2009 1/2: 138 rec 2,174 yards 10 TD
2009 3/4: 87 rec 1,116 yards 10 TD

2010 1/2: 126 rec 1,994 yards 17 TD
2010 3/4: 96 rec 1,168 yards 6 TD

2011 1/2: 135 rec 2,212 yards 24 TD
2011 3/4: 93 rec 1,402 yards 15 TD

2012 1/2: 144 rec 1,738 yards 22 TD
2012 3/4: 110 rec 1,412 yards 9 TD

2013 1/2: 144 rec 2,131 yards 11 TD
2013 3/4: 80 rec 1,114 yards 7 TD

2014 1/2: 189 rec 2,806 yards 25 TD
2014 3/4: 80 rec 872 yards 7 TD

While many of these seasons have a variance of under 1,000 yards between the top-two combination and three-four combination, Rodgers’ rookie season of 2008 and this past season both approach a 2,000 yard gap. The 2014 campaign also featured the greatest variance in receptions between the two groups at 109, and touchdowns at 18.

Jan 11, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) gets away from Dallas Cowboys free safety J.J. Wilcox (27) to score a touchdown in the third quarter in the 2014 NFC Divisional playoff football game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

These numbers are simply too far apart, and a look at the 2010 and 2011 seasons suggest that bringing them closer together will result in a stronger overall team. In 2011, when Rodgers posted one of the greatest single-season performances in NFL history, Green Bay’s top two receivers and three-four duo had a variance of 42 receptions, and the secondary group had their strongest cumulative performance under Rodgers in his career. This is not a coincidence.

The two groups were similarly close in 2010, with 30 receptions and 826 yards separating group one and group two. Green Bay went on to win Super Bowl XLV vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers that season, with three receivers producing 50 yards or more on the big stage.

It’s important to realize that this is a small part of a larger picture that includes the running game, offensive line play, team health and the individual performance of Rodgers himself. As September approaches, though, the Packers will be looking for a cumulative effort to diversify and balance this offense.

Adams is a hot breakout candidate and I believe that tight end Richard Rodgers will develop into a very valuable depth option over the heart of the field. Rookie Ty Montgomery could impact in the screen game or on simple crossing routes that get him the ball in space, while one of Jared Abbrederis or Jeff Janis could chip in a reception per game.

Aaron Rodgers will be a better quarterback when the opposing defensive coordinator is forced to defend more than two receiving weapons. Not only will improved balance help the quarterback, but it will also remove some level of focus from Lacy, who is poised for an impressive season himself. We’re nitpicking here, absolutely, but there’s always room to improve in Titletown.

Next: Jared Abbrederis ready to compete for Packers

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