Green Bay Packers need one final flash from Julius Peppers

Julius Peppers is an outlier on the Green Bay Packers. As the oldest member of a young roster and a splashy free agent signing on the league’s most home-grown team, Peppers stands out not only due to his 6’7″, 287 pound frame. Entering a 2015 season in which the Green Bay Packers are discussed as Super Bowl candidates, they’ll be hoping for one final burst from the linebacker.

Despite returning with the third highest cap hit on the Packers roster, bested only by Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, Peppers’ salary is easier to stomach due to the widespread impact that he has across Green Bay’s 3-4 scheme. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers tells Rob Demovsky of ESPN “You hear me say all the time that you’re looking for guys that are difference-makers [and will] make one, two, three plays a game.” Peppers represents those plays.

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In his first season with the Packers, Peppers recorded 44 total tackles with 7.0 sacks. His sack total was equal to his final season with the Chicago Bears in 2013, which was not viewed as a rousing success, but Peppers’ splash-play potential elsewhere gave him undeniable value. His 11 passes defended was far outside of his career norms and a personal best, while his six forced fumbles represented another career high at age 34. Peppers also intercepted two passes, both of which he returned for touchdowns.

His play picked up in the playoffs for Green Bay, recording 2.5 sacks over two games while forcing two fumbles. Most notably, Peppers reached back to strip DeMarco Murray in the third quarter of the NFC divisional game, preventing from the Cowboys back from breaking free into the open field.

The worry with Peppers is that, should he decline, he will miss that play by inches instead of making it by inches. Impact plays such as sacks, fumbles and interceptions are often measured with single-digit numbers. If age finally catches up to Peppers in his mid-30’s, 7.0 sacks can quickly become 4.5 and two interceptions can become zero. As a player who disappeared on film from time to time when not making these impact plays, any regression would certainly be felt.

Jan 11, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) fumbles the ball as he is hit by Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Julius Peppers (56) in the third quarter in the second half in the 2014 NFC Divisional playoff football game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Thankfully for Green Bay, the domino-effect of Peppers in this scheme gives the value of his impact a very high floor. Regardless of his in-game success, the name “Julius Peppers” demands to be blocked and will continue to leave Clay Matthews in one-on-one matchups. Think of Peppers like the steady-eddie possession receiver that opens up deep passes to the playmaking receiver in Matthews.

Without Peppers, Green Bay also lacks the impact players at outside linebacker to allow for the move of Clay Matthews inside. Should Dom Capers choose to shift Matthews alongside Sam Barrington on early downs to control the running game, Peppers allows the Packers to maintain a legitimate pass-rush threat. Otherwise, some combination of Mike Neal, Nick Perry or Datone Jones would intimidate no opponent.

The Packers will be hoping that Peppers’ second season as a standup linebacker in this 3-4 scheme will help to counteract any decline brought on by physical regression. Even when considering his inflated contract value, it should be seen as a success if Peppers can give the Packers 90-95% of what he did in 2014. His impact may show up in the stat line of others just as often as it does is his own, but for Green Bay, that’s all part of the plan.

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