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St. Louis Rams: Why extend Nick Foles?

By Kevin Parvizi

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After dealing with generally weak quarterback play from ideal backups Shaun Hill and Austin Davis last season, the St. Louis Rams have reason for optimism on the offensive side of the ball after sending injury-prone QB Sam Bradford and a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft to the Philadelphia Eagles for Nick Foles, a second-round pick in next year’s draft, and a 2015 fourth-round selection thrown in.

Foles’s pedestrian rookie season in 2012 gave way to a sensational 2013 season that saw him throw 27 touchdowns to two interceptions, but he came crashing back down to earth in a rather poor 2014 season that eventually saw him injured and later Wally Pipp’d by turnover-prone former first-round pick Mark Sanchez.

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Now with the Rams, Foles has a fair shot at bouncing back, even though “bouncing back” almost certainly doesn’t mean he’ll approach those gaudy 2013 statistics again. The Rams have an excellent running game buoyed by young backs Todd Gurley and Tre Mason, a scary defense to support their new quarterback, and Brian Quick, if healthy, could form a nice WR duo with rejuvenated veteran Kenny Britt.

But while there is reason to believe that Foles can have a quality 2015 season in his first year in St. Louis, it’s weird to think that the Rams are already kicking around the idea of giving him an extension. Two days ago, the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that a “priority” for the Rams is to “lock up” Foles to a long-term deal. In fact, Rapoport reported that not only have both sides engaged in talks already, but those discussions are expected to heat up as we draw closer to Week 1.

Forgive me for saying this, but it seems a little strange that the Rams would like to lock up a quarterback who has never played a snap for them and is coming off of a season in which he completed less than 60% of his passes. He also threw an interception on 3.2% of his total pass attempts, tying him with Davis and Jay Cutler, and only five quarterbacks threw picks on a higher percentage of their throws last year.

Even if the Rams are encouraged by his incredible 27:2 TD:INT ratio in 2013 and the fact that Nick Foles averaged just over 270 passing yards per game in eight appearances last season, I can’t fathom why they would be interested in extending their new QB. Worse yet, Rapoport used the word “priority” in his tweet, and a long-term extension for Foles seems like something that needs to take place after the season if he plays well.

It isn’t unreasonable for the Rams to feel confident that Foles can play well, because, again, he looked fantastic in 2013. But many are rightfully skeptical that it was a fluke year from the former Arizona standout, because the fourth-year pros other two seasons were wholly underwhelming.

Foles will make $1.522 million in 2015 on the final year of his deal, so the only reason why the Rams would consider the idea of extending him is if they are so high on him that they believe he will play himself into a massive contract a la Ryan Tannehill. Franchise QBs are commanding king’s ransoms, simply because it’s too expensive and risky (especially for coaches and front office members) for teams to reset at the position.

Chances are that Foles will be about an average quarterback for the Rams next season, and that could definitely be enough for the Rams to at least challenge for a playoff spot given how good their defense and running game are expected to be. But it just doesn’t make sense for them to target an extension for Foles before the start of the season, since, again, he hasn’t played a freaking game for them. How do they know he’s the right guy? Can they be 100% sure about how he suits the offense?

Mar 13, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams quarterback Nick Foles is introduced to the media at Rams Park. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

I like that the St. Louis Rams are confident in the quarterback they traded for (even if, based on the picks sent, you could argue that it was actually the Eagles who wanted to acquire the QB here), but Foles is coming off of a poor season and a shoulder injury.

Basically, the Rams are trying the buy-low approach here with Foles, because they want to avoid paying him the kind of money Andy Dalton and Cutler are making for their respective teams.

It will be interesting to see if they create a new mid-tier QB market with Foles, and we’ll also see just what kind of guarantees a relatively unproven commodity at QB makes.

Even though Foles should gladly accept a deal that comes his way, there might also be the possibility of him rejecting a deal in an effort to “bet on himself” and not lock himself into a long-term deal that could be team-friendly if he does prove to be a franchise quarterback (because then he’d have to try and scare the Rams into paying him more while under that contract).

But I’ll leave this tweet as a parting thought to chew on, because Foles’s stats in 2013 might not have as much predictive value as some would like to think. They do give us a legit reason to be optimistic, and it looks like the Rams are buying in despite the risk.

Next: Foles emerging into a strong leader

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