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Dallas Cowboys: Dez Bryant deserves to be highest-paid receiver?

By Kevin Parvizi

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The contract disagreement between Dallas Cowboys and star wide receiver Dez Bryant, who, along with fellow elite receiver Demaryius Thomas of the Denver Broncos, is set to play out the 2015 season under the franchise tag, which is set at $12.823 million. Only one wide receiver makes more than $12.823 million, and that man is Detroit Lions superstar Calvin Johnson, who makes an average of about $16.207 million per year, according to OverTheCap.com.

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While Bryant has been quick to take his campaign to social media, the Cowboys remain unsurprisingly confident that one of the game’s best offensive weapons won’t miss the team’s big Week 1 tilt against the New York Giants, who could be the favored Cowboys toughest competition in the NFC East if they are finally able to stay healthy. Their health won’t be a problem in Week 1, so the Cowboys will need Bryant to be out there against a secondary that has Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara at corner.

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Jerry Jones‘s confidence that his No. 1 receiver won’t skip out on any games came after Bryant’s agent, the renowned Tom Condon, said otherwise. It’s an ugly battle, and you can’t help but wonder if the Cowboys leaks about Bryant’s character concerns have something to do with the tough negotiations between both sides.

But Bryant’s asking price is high, and I’m sure he wants to become the highest-paid wide receiver in the game. That’s the kind of money he can get out of the Cowboys, because they are a contending team who already lost their other important skill position player in DeMarco Murray, leaving them with an uncertain situation at the running back position. Jason Witten, Cole Beasley, and Terrance Williams are all credible weapons, but would the Cowboys really feel confident with those three guys as their main options and Bryant out?

It’s hard to find receivers like Bryant, and there’s a reason why elite receivers don’t hit the open market (Randall Cobb didn’t this offseason, as the Green Bay Packers re-signed him after extending Jordy Nelson before the season started). Every team, whether it’s the Lions or Pittsburgh Steelers, have made it a priority to lock up their top weapons, and the Cowboys have a franchise quarterback in Tony Romo who relies on Bryant and is 35 who’s had his fair share of injury scares.

In almost every case (quarterbacks are the obvious exception), teams hold leverage over star players in the NFL. However, Bryant’s situation has drawn comparisons to the Emmitt Smith holdout in 1993, and while that’s mostly because both are star Cowboys who would like to be paid more, it’s fair to say that Bryant is also vital to the current Cowboys success.

What Do The Stats Say?

Let’s just let the numbers speak for themselves. In each of the past three seasons, Dez Bryant has appeared in all 16 games, and he’s missed just five games in his five-year career; that’s an incredible track record of durability. He’s also caught at least 88 passes, over 1,200 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns in each of the past three years, and that speaks volumes to his consistency. Some people still portray him as some whiny, immature player, when in fact he’s been a true gamer who dominates year-in and year-out as a massive matchup problem on the outside.

Bryant is one of those big receivers who can burn defenses downfield and make monstrous plays in the red zone, as he piles up the touchdowns (41 in the past three seasons) and burns defenses downfield, having averaged 15.0 yards per reception last season.

I decided to look up Bryant’s gaudy 2014 numbers and see how they compare to other seasons from wide receivers, and only seven wideouts in NFL history (Jerry Rice has done this many times) have caught at least 80 passes in a season, averaged at least 15 yards per reception, and caught 15 touchdown passes.

There’s no doubt that Bryant is a consistently elite receiver at the top of his game, and only three receivers (Cobb, Nelson, and Odell Beckham Jr.) had higher WR Ratings last season, which is a Pro Football Focus stat that basically looks at a quarterback’s QB Rating when targeting a specific receiver. Bryant was third in this stat in 2012 and 12th in 2013, so his dominance in WR Rating last year wasn’t an aberration.

He has some of the best hands in the league, and it certainly takes a player with elite hands and body control to catch 16 TD passes in a season despite clearly being a team’s best red zone threat (with all due respect to Witten). The former Oklahoma State star does a great job of working back to Romo whenever he’s trouble, so he’s always available for that TD pass and has been known to make impossible grabs in tight spaces when it seems like he’s covered.

As evidenced by the fact that he’s averaged 15.0 yards per reception twice in his career, Bryant is pretty darn good at going downfield. In fact, PFF keeps track of catch rates for receivers on passes that travel at least 20 yards downfield, and Bryant’s catch rate on such passes was the highest in the league last year. Yes, higher than DeSean Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Nelson, and whoever else you want to throw out there.

What He Means

With Murray gone, Bryant is clearly the Cowboys second-most important player behind Romo, and that gives him an even bigger opportunity to become the league’s highest-paid receiver. Although there’s a feeling of risk surrounding him, whether fabricated or not, Bryant’s only incident was an arrest for domestic violence after striking his mother. That’s an incident that must be kept in mind, but Bryant, despite an alleged Wal-Mart video that Adam Schefter has yet to obtain, has kept his nose clean since 2012.

Given the fact that Megatron’s contract was signed in 2012, the next elite receiver to sign a long-term deal should be the highest-paid in the game. Since the Broncos have more big names on the roster and a great No. 2 receiver in Emmanuel Sanders, it stands to reason that Bryant has a good shot at earning more money than Demaryius Thomas on a long-term deal.

Bryant deserves to be paid Johnson-type money after producing the way he has over the past three seasons, but the real worry for both the Cowboys and Bryant is the guaranteed money. How much do the Cowboys trust Bryant? And how much guaranteed money vs. possible money does Bryant want?

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Jan 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Johnson’s $48.75 million in total guarantees dwarfes the next-best total guaranteed sums, which belong to Mike Wallace ($27 million) and Vincent Jackson ($26 million) with rookie Amari Cooper surprisingly coming in fourth at $22.663 million.

Wallace, Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin are the second, third, and fourth highest-paid receivers per year and in total guarantees, so it stands to reason that Thomas and Bryant are about to bust open the market.

If Maclin, who looked like a No. 1-quality receiver but is not elite, can make $11 million a year, then imagine what Bryant and Thomas can garner.

The Cowboys know that they only have a few more years of top-quality ball from Romo, and they can’t deny Bryant’s importance.

They need their elite wideout in order to ensure that they get the most out of a quarterback who put up numbers comparable to Aaron Rodgers last season, and while it’s always hard to give someone a huge contract, it might be even more risky for Dallas to avoid paying Bryant the money he deserves after three straight elite seasons.

Based on his numbers and his importance to the team, Bryant should indeed be the NFL’s highest-paid receiver.

So I’d say that if the Cowboys can get him under Johnson’s contract, then they’d have done well for themselves.

I think we’ll see Bryant’s eventual long-term deal being worth more than Johnson’s in overall money, but I have a feeling he’ll end up with less in total guarantees due to the ‘Boys apparent lack of trust in Bryant’s behavior, even if the alleged Wal-Mart video turned out to be nothing more than a hoax.

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