Jacksonville Jaguars: Allen Robinson hype is real

Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Jarvis Landry looked like the biggest stars out of last year’s historic wide receiver draft class, with OBJ looking like a future Hall of Famer with his ridiculous athleticism, understanding of the position, and unreal catches. Those five receivers all deserve praise for their tools and what they showed us last year, but it’s clear to me that Jacksonville Jaguars second-year pro Allen Robinson deserves to be on that shortlist despite not catching 50 passes in his first season.

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To be fair, Robinson has received more than his fair share of hype this offseason, and the Associated Press’s plugged-in Mark Long recently wrote that the former Penn State star has been “the star” of the offseason so far for the Jaguars. Quarterback Blake Bortles chimed in, calling Robinson “unbelievable” and “fun to throw to”. Both Long and Bortles emphasized Robinson as a red zone weapon, making the fact that a player with a 42-inch vertical (pro day) and 6’3″ frame had just two touchdown receptions last season.

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There was one quote that I took issue with, and that is Long’s assertion that Robinson had a “mostly forgettable” rookie year. Without looking at the context of the numbers, Robinson’s 48 receptions for 548 yards and two TDs certainly look forgettable on paper, especially in comparison to what the likes of Evans and ODB were able to achieve.

Even though it might not be saying much considering how poorly Cecil Shorts played and how raw Marqise Lee looked, Robinson was the Jaguars best receiver last season. He led the team with 4.8 receptions per game and 54.8 yards per game, with no other receiver coming within ten yards per game of him. Extrapolated to a full 16 games (he played in ten due to a stress fracture), Robinson would have put up 77 receptions for 877 yards, and those would have been strong numbers for a rookie receiver.

Perhaps the most positive thing about Robinson’s rookie season is the fact that he looked like the most polished receiver on the team, as the biggest knock on him coming out of college was the fact that he looked raw. Many believed that we wouldn’t see a productive version of the second-round pick until his third season, and yet he dropped just one pass last season, giving him Pro Football Focus’s seventh-lowest drop rate among 90 qualifiers.

Robinson, who ran a forty time under 4.5 seconds at his pro day, has enough playmaking ability to stretch the field, and he has the agility to make things happen after the catch (when he’s aware of what’s going on around him). His average of just 11.4 yards per reception last year was the product of Bortles’s play, as the rookie QB averaged just 10.4 yards per reception.

It would have been unrealistic to expect big numbers from Allen Robinson as a rookie, simply because the opportunity wasn’t there for any of the Jaguars receivers to go off on the stat sheet with a rookie QB taking his lumps. Moreover, Robinson was just third on the team with 81 targets, so you can’t look at the overall stats. You can see, however, that he averaged the second-most targets per game (8.1), showing that Bortles looked to his big, reliable (note the drop rate) receiver often.

As a whole, the Jaguars quarterbacks (remember, Chad Henne attempted 78 passes last season) completed just 58.3% of their passes, and, per Pro-Football Reference, Robinson was the only wide receiver on the team with a catch rate higher than 58.3%. Although a catch rate of 59.3% doesn’t exactly look appealing, it is worth noting that he averaged 0.8 more yards per completion than his QBs and had a catch rate that was a full percentage point higher than the combined completion percentage of his quarterbacks.

Oct 12, 2014; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) carries the ball after a reception against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at LP Field. Mandatory Credit: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Robinson in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft because of his upside and his pro day workout, but he has the other traits that can make him a star in this league as an “X” receiver.

Robinson moves fluidly, can generate separation with his hips, has the size and strength to beat press coverage, and he showed off good hands and better-than-expected route-running ability in the intermediate game last season.

For Robinson, the hype is real, and it’s not just because the offseason gives him a chance to shine with Bortles facing less pressure outside of a real game environment. The hype is real, because Robinson quietly played well as a rookie despite the fact that he would have been forgiven for struggling.

Many have tabbed Robinson for a breakout, and it’s a wise choice given his traits, the fact that his opportunities will skyrocket (Bortles sure seems to love him and wisely recognizes that the 21-year-old with big upside and better-than-advertised polished is his best WR), and the fact that he showed promise last year prior to an injury.

Did I mention that he is 21? Young receivers who are succeeding are a valuable bunch.

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