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Houston Texans: Can J.J. Watt Maintain His Production?

By Joel Childers

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Dec 28, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) reacts during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Will Watt Be Able To Maintain His Jaw-Dropping Production?

The short answer is, it seems unlikely, at least from a historical perspective. No player has managed to maintain the level of production Watt is seeing right now throughout an entire career, and that makes a lot of sense. Almost every player sees injuries and age decline affect their careers in some way, and surely J.J. cannot be exempt.

The chart comparing the stats of several great pass-rushers shows massive amounts of fluctuation for each player, with some outstanding seasons immediately offset by aggressively average ones. If Watt was able to maintain the level of production he’s seen recently, his numbers would be almost comically high, as if he had found a glitch on a Madden game that allows him to go untouched to the quarterback on ever snap. It just doesn’t seem real.

However, Watt is what Brett Smiley of FOX Sports has described as a “freak of nature”. He hasn’t missed a game in his career, despite suffering some pretty nasty looking injuries. He’s also the only player in league history to manage 20+ sacks in two separate years. He is simply one of the greatest athletes in the world. At 6’6″ and 290lbs, the fact that he can do a 5’1″ box jump is simply breathtaking. If there’s any player that seems able to physically hold up under the strain of playing at such a high level, surely it is this behemoth.

Another factor that often plays into the production numbers of a player, is a shift in team dynamics and coaching strategy. For Watt, there is practically no chance of any self-respecting NFL coach employing any strategy that doesn’t center around his ability to make plays. Houston head coach Bill O’Brien became very aware of Watt’s knack for being at the center of action after re-watching 2014 game tape:

"“I think I had over 120 plays that were either [tackle for loss], quarterback hit, quarterback sack, batted ball, interception, fumble recovery, caused fumble, 120 plays he did one of those seven things,” O’Brien told HoustonTexans.com’s Drew Dougherty at the annual NFL meetings."

O’Brien certainly isn’t going to be limiting his usage of his star defender anytime soon. A shift in team dynamic, however, could affect Watt’s production. It will be hard for him to get to the quarterback if someone else is getting there first. With NFL.com’s Michael Silver expecting 2014 first overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney to be ready to play for Week 1 of the 2015 season after only playing in four games as a rookie, Watt may have some new competition.

Clowney is expected to be a force on the outside to rival Watt, and was described in his NFL.com draft profile as having the ability to “immediately upgrade a defensive line and improve the production of those around him.” If Clowney truly has the impact many believe he can, it will almost be a race on every passing play to see which defender can be the first to hit the quarterback.

This offseason the Texans also added defensive lineman Vince Wilfork to plug up the middle and linebacker Benardrick McKinney to help stop the run, and with any luck second year lineman Louis Nix III will be ready to make an impact. Adding safety Rahim Moore and drafting cornerback Kevin Johnson will also improve what should be one of the league’s best defenses in 2015.

Dec 21, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

That could mean one of two things for J.J. Watt. Either those around him step up, and allow him to take some of the pressure off of himself, while also seeing a decline in his numbers, or opposing offenses are forced to focus more on other threats, freeing up Watt to do even more damage.

I’m inclined to think that it is the first option, with those around Watt balancing him out, and allowing for a better team defense and less individual production. Of the five best single season sack performances in NFL history, only one of those was by a player on a winning team. All of the others occurred on teams that did not make the playoffs, and finished in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed.

There have certainly been some excellent sack performances on some great teams, but what this statistic says to me is that teams are more likely to be successful if their defense is based around strong performances from the unit as a whole rather than one person. It also implies that teams that have an elite defense are less likely to need historic individual performances to be successful.

Of the 94 players in the last 25 seasons who have managed at least 14 sacks, only three times has one of those players been on a Super Bowl winning team. Clearly teams with championship-caliber defenses do not often rely on huge sack numbers from a single player. And some, including John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, feel that Houston could have a championship-caliber defense:

"“Considering how they finished last season and barring too many injuries, it seems safe to predict the Texans will be one of the league’s elite defenses this season.”"

If Houston does indeed have an elite defense in 2015, it seems likely that J.J. Watt’s numbers will decline somewhat. The team as a whole will be better, and as a result more players will be getting in on the action.

A stronger pass-rush from the rest of the team would also allow Watt more freedom in the other facets of his game. He’s already a prolific pass defender at the line, earning him the nickname ‘J.J. Swatt’ and if Clowney and others are pressuring the quarterback, he will be more able to sit back and bat down passes that come his way, or even intercept them as he as already shown an ability to do.

Watt has also shown a knack for scoring points. Putting aside his two defensive touchdowns and one forced safety, Watt caught three touchdown passes in 2014. He began his college football career at tight-end, and even though he has long since moved to defense, he still remembers some of his old skills. Watt was the team’s fourth leading scorer in 2014, and head coach Bill O’Brien made it clear during the season that Watt playing offense was not a one-time thing.

Maybe Texans fans should be hoping for a decrease in Watt’s usage on defense, so they can see what all he can do with the ball in his hands.

Overall, I think it’s unlikely that Watt can consistently maintain the numbers he produced in 2012 and 2014 on a year-to-year basis. However, I do not think we are likely to see a decline in his overall production as a football player anytime soon. Everyone, including his coach, see Watt as a player who is constantly working to make himself an even better football player (via ESPN’s Tania Ganguli).

After being signed to a huge new contract last season, Watt himself says that he still has work to do:

"“That’s what is all about. You get that big contract and you want to show people you’ve earned it. As a fan of sports, I see people get big contracts all the time, and as a fan what you want is someone to go out there and earn that contract.” (via Terry McCormick of 247Sports)."

I absolutely believe that Watt will earn his contract, by maintaining his role as a leader on the team, making the players around him better, and making an impact in more and more places on the field. Maybe the Texans use him more on offense or as a run-stopper, or maybe teams are forced to double and triple team him, freeing up other Texans to make some big plays.

I would love to see Watt set record after record, all while punishing quarterbacks, and maybe that’s exactly what we’re in store for. But if the Texans hope to take the next step as a team, they must continue the process of building an elite team defense, which will likely mean a decline in some of Watt’s numbers.

If anyone is to defy the odds however, it will be J.J. Watt. I can’t wait to see what he does next, and I’ll confess I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he started covering wide receivers on the edge or dropping back as a quarterback to pass. Whatever it is, the Texans have a special player in J.J. Watt, and his talent and leadership should be able to take the team to new heights.

Next: Houston Texans: Making The Case For Ryan Mallett

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