New York Jets 2015 Profiles: Eric Decker

Last season, the New York Jets had just one pass-catcher with at least 40 receptions or 450 receiving yards, as Eric Decker tried to keep one of the NFL’s worst passing attacks (third-lowest net yards per attempt at 5.4 with just 16 touchdowns through the air) afloat. Coming into the season, the Jets marquee free agent signing was criticized for not being a true No. 1 receiver, and while that’s up for debate, it will be an irrelevant issue in 2015 with Brandon Marshall on board.

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Of course, you could make the case that Decker should have a better 2015 season than Marshall, because he was better in several notable statistical categories. For example, despite dealing with quarterbacks who combined for a 75.1 QB Rating (the Chicago Bears QBs had an 87.3 QB Rating), Decker still managed to have a higher WR Rating (a Pro Football Focus stat that is basically QB Rating for wide receivers).

And unlike Marshall, Decker didn’t have Alshon Jeffery (the team’s best receiver and leader in receiving yards), Martellus Bennett (second in receiving yards per game), and Matt Forte (leader in receptions) taking pressure off of him. Instead, he had eight “meh” games from Percy Harvin, a decent 38 catches from Jace Amaro, and 25.6 receiving yards per game from second-leading WR Jeremy Kerley thrown in.

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Opponents knew that the Jets couldn’t throw the football and had just one legitimate pass-catcher on the squad, and yet that didn’t stop Decker from putting up a 74/962/5 line with 13.0 yards per reception and 64.1 receiving yards per game. Marshall was the one who missed games with an injury, but Decker’s stats (including per game averages) are also hurt by a hamstring injury that clearly hampered him and even caused him to miss one game.

Although another Smith outburst and some shoddy coverage from Cortland Finnegan helped this game come to life, the NFL got to see Decker at his potent best in Week 17 when his quarterback play was finally competent. In that game, he put up an insane ten receptions on 11 targets for 221 yards, and the high usage rate confirms the idea that Decker was the Jets only trustworthy receiver last year.

With a matured Amaro, Marshall, an (hopefully) improved Smith (if not, then Ryan Fitzpatrick proved last year that he can give the ball to playmakers as a game manager instead of throwing the ball away), deep threat Devin Smith, and an upgraded offensive coordinator in Chan Gailey, Decker has a higher 2015 ceiling.

Peyton Manning won’t be dropping back and Demaryius Thomas won’t be running routes across from Decker, but it’s still worth noting that the former Denver Broncos No. 2 receiver had back-to-back seasons with over double-digit TDs before joining the Jets on a big contract. He was an explosive weapon and technician who knew how to get space, turning that space into at least 85 receptions and 1,000 yards in his seasons with Manning with two top-five seasons in WR Rating.

It will be interesting to see how many targets are split in between Eric Decker and Marshall, but the 114 targets that the 28-year-old received last season should be replicated. Marshall should bounce back and was easily the better receiver prior to his down year in 2014, so he remains the favorite to lead the team in targets. But given that Decker was more efficient last year (16th out of 50 in PFF’s yard per route run last year), I wouldn’t be surprised if that expectation goes unfulfilled.

After Decker’s 8.4 yards per target, half-season appearer Harvin’s 6.7 yards per target, as per Advanced Football Analytics, was the highest mark on the Jets last season. That’s going to have to improve, and it will for the reasons stated a couple of paragraphs above (Smith, expected improvements at QB, improved Amaro, Marshall, better coaching on the offensive side of the ball).

Dec 28, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Eric Decker (87) makes a catch in front of Miami Dolphins strong safety

Jimmy Wilson

(27) during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Not only will that help the New York Jets offense as a whole, but it should also greatly aid Decker, as it is crazy to think that he put up 8.4 yards per target despite catching passes from QBs who averaged a full two yards less per attempt.

Considering that he’s hit the 13.0 yards per reception mark three times in his career with at least 5 TDs in his past four seasons, Decker is a pretty good playmaking threat, so he brings some sizzle along with his ability to consistently get open and catch 70+ passes per season.

The drops won’t go away, and he isn’t a dynamic, sure-fire No. 1 receiver. But instead of complaining about Decker because of who he isn’t, the Jets will simply appreciate him for who he is; a machine who consistently produces in various ways.

He, Marshall, Smith, Amaro, and Kerley should form an excellent, balanced quintet of weapons for either Smith or Fitzpatrick, and it’s up to those QBs to avoid screwing it up.

I mean, the Jets offense basically had everything going wrong for them except for some decent work from the running game, and Decker still managed to play well.

Another 70-80 receptions is a reasonable projection, and he should be able to hit 1,000 receiving yards.

Based on his past production, five TDs is also a safe bet, but it’s hard to lock in anything more than that with a red zone maven Marshall entering the picture (there are also less scores to go around in New York than there were in Denver).

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