Oakland Raiders: A Fast Start To The Season Is Key

Trying to take an educated guess at which statistics matter the most when trying to predict the Oakland Raiders chances at a successful season is, at best, hard to do. Realistically, no matter how hard someone tries to “crunch the numbers”, until the games start in September it’s impossible to know who things will shake out. In this vein, once the season begins there is a statistic that seems to stand the test of time when trying to predict how things will shake out.

More from Las Vegas Raiders

Historically, odds are that when an NFL team starts the season 0-2 they struggle to win enough games to make it to the post season, at least over the eight years or so. Conversely, when an NFL team can win their first 2 games of the year, they make it to the post season close to a 2/3 ratio. Sure, there are no guarantees on either side of this trend, and teams can and have beat the odds. But trends are trends for a reason: they tend to happen year in and year out.

ALSO ON SPIN ZONE: 30 Greatest Teams of All-Time

An example of this? Out of the last eight years (2007-2014), 66 teams have started the season 0-2. Out of those 66, only a handful of them made it to the playoffs; specifically, including the Colts last year, only 5 out of those 66 (stats via oddsshark.com). Needless to say, this is an overwhelming trend and one an NFL team does not want to be on the wrong side of.

What does this conclusively reveal? Nothing. We know: winning good, losing bad. Raider fans, however, have seen their fair share of losing, especially since the end of 2002 (their last playoff year). That year was significant for a number of reasons; Super Bowl appearance, dominance, etc. But it was also the last time the Raiders started 2-0. Every year since 2002 Oakland has either started 1-1 or 0-2, and this of course has played into some of the reasons why they haven’t had a winning season since 2002.

In 2015, the Raiders will undoubtedly face a lot of tough situations and have to play some good teams. But the biggest games of their season may be the ones they start with, no matter how many they win. If Oakland can somehow start the year 2-0, they would go from a team looking to try to improve to a team poised for a playoff run.

Of course, it won’t be easy. For one, any game in the NFL can be a blowout for the favorite. Secondly, they face two teams that went to the playoffs in 2014: The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams have had strong defenses for several years. Both teams have had a knack for playing well in the regular season. Both teams have experienced quarterbacks and explosive players.

Out of the last eight years (2007-2014), 66 teams have started the season 0-2. Out of those 66, only a handful of them made it to the playoffs; specifically, including the Colts last year, only 5 out of those 66

The Raiders will play both the Ravens and Bengals at home, something that could work in their favor. Protecting home field is of course key when trying to win long-term in a season, and starting the year with two home wins would arguably be an even bigger momentum builder than any other combination of road and home win starts. It puts the home crowd behind you and can catapult you into that first road game with a lot of confidence.

Whether the Raiders win 2, 1 or 0 games, their first 2 weeks won’t guarantee anything for them when it comes to the post season. That being said, Oakland needs to do everything possible to start 2015 fast.

The Raiders would much rather ride the trend then try to buck it.

Next: Oakland Raiders: 5 Key Stats

More from NFL Spin Zone

Home/Las Vegas Raiders