Green Bay Packers 2015 projections: Aaron Rodgers

The Green Bay Packers near their upcoming training camp with few question marks on the offensive side of the ball. Offensive line depth and the sixth receiver job are still up for grabs, but beyond that, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will lead the same starting eleven that had the Green Bay Packers on the cusp of last year’s Super Bowl.

Leading up to kickoff, we’ll take a tour of this offense and forecast the production of every player. With more established players like Rodgers, we can do so comparatively with his 2014 statistics, examining whether he is due to improve or regress. Whether you’re looking for some certainty in your fantasy football draft or just want to talk shop about your Packers, let’s dive in.

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Games Played – 16

Let’s begin with a dose of blind optimism, but the support system around Rodgers has me comfortable in predicting a healthy season. Rodgers can be guilty of holding the football for (way) too long, but his offensive weapons should present him with plenty of quick throws. The line should continue to grow together, while running back Eddie Lacy has quietly turned into one of the league’s best backfield protectors.

Completion Percentage –

67.8%

Passing Yards – 4,290

Albeit very minor, I see the slight regression in Rodgers’ passing yardage being more likely than a noticeable jump. Thankfully, this doesn’t always represent a failure on the quarterback’s part. The presence of both John Kuhn and Aaron Ripkowski could further Green Bay’s power running game, meaning that once Green Bay takes a sizeable lead, it’s ground and pound. Sometimes with yards, it’s quality over quantity.

Touchdowns – 40

Rodgers has topped 40 touchdowns just once in his NFL career (45 in 2011), but why not again? His total of 38 in 2014 could be buoyed by Adams and Rodgers in the red zone, while some closer games will help the cause as well. The Packers took large leads often in 2014, eliminating the aerial attack from play. A number higher than 40 still wouldn’t surprise me, but we’ll try to keep both feet on the ground here.

Interceptions – 7

An interception percentage of just 1.0% is simply unsustainable, even for a quarterback with a career mark of 1.6%. Yes, at least two of his five receptions in 2014 bounced off the palms of his receivers, but a regression to the 7-8 range remains likely. Rodgers has become famous for passes that eek through a paper-thin window, so the margin for error isn’t always that large.

Rushing Yards – 225

After the calf injury that Rodgers suffered in 2014 (where he rushed for 269 yards), I expect that part of his game to be reeled in slightly. Not enough to “tame” Rodgers by any means, but don’t be surprised if he chooses a quick flip to Lacy over a five yard scamper of his own. He’ll still impact the game with his legs as he always has, and often times, his most important movement happens behind the line of scrimmage to set up a higher-quality pass.

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