Green Bay Packers 2015 Predictions: WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson had a career year for the Green Bay Packers in 2014, setting new personal bests in targets, receptions and yardage. He and Randall Cobb were a two man show on the receiving end of another elite campaign from Aaron Rodgers, but a more balanced offensive attack could eat into his production this coming season. Frankly, that’s not a bad thing.

As we await the opening of training camp for the Green Bay Packers, we’ll be profiling each prominent member of the offense and projecting their output for the coming year. Last week I predicted that Aaron Rodgers would eclipse the 40 touchdown plateau once again, and Nelson will play a large role in that.

Targets & Receptions – 130 for 88

These totals would slot Nelson in just slightly above his numbers from 2013, and I feel that’s a comfortable projection for him. He remains Aaron Rodgers’ go-to target when the team needs a first down or an impact play down the sideline, and Rodgers will not be afraid to toss one up into tight coverage.

I believe that Nelson’s own play will impact these numbers slightly, but they’ll most heavily be influenced by the performances of Richard Rodgers, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery or Jeff Janis. If one or two secondary options emerge, will they eat into Nelson’s targets or simply open him up for more?

Receiving Yards – 1,290

While the red digits again signify a drop from 2015, will anyone complain about an 88-catch season for 1,290 yards? Assuming that Nelson can stay healthy throughout the entire season, which he has done over the past two, I expect Nelson to remain in the league’s upper echelon of wide receivers and reward his fantasy football owners with strong WR1 production.

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Nelson’s speed is extremely underrated around football, and that’s what I’ll be watching from him throughout training camp. He’s not quite old enough to slow down just yet, maybe next year, but a return at anything less than 100% from his hip surgery could limit his downfield potential.

Another factor to keep in mind when we’re discussing any Packers receiver is “garbage yards”, something that Nelson and Cobb received very little of last season. The Packers often opened up wide leads by the third quarter which effectively halted their passing game, so while some tighter matchups aren’t what we’re necessarily hoping for here, it could help to cushion some of these numbers.

Touchdowns – 13

One area where I don’t expect a regression from Nelson is in the touchdown category. His totals of 13 from 2014 and 15 from 2011 show that he’s capable of throwing up big numbers, and while I trust the likes of Adams, Rodgers and Janis to eat into his yardage totals, I don’t think they’ll impact his touchdowns quite as much.

Also factoring into this is Randall Cobb, whose 12 touchdowns from last season seem quite unsustainable to me. The emergence of Adams could see Cobb moved around more frequently with more looks from the slot, but with Nelson, he’s a threat to score on every play. An improved offensive core and the continued growth of Eddie Lacy on the ground will soften opposing defenses, and when it does, watch out for Rodgers-to-Nelson over the top. It’s a familiar sight.

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