Dallas Cowboys: Dez Bryant an even bigger winner than you think?

When it was first reported that the Dallas Cowboys signed star wide receiver Dez Bryant to a five-year deal worth $70 million with $32 million in guarantees and the potential for $45 million in guaranteed money, most people’s reaction was, “Cool, he’s worth that much.”

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But when it was reported that the Denver Broncos signed a slightly less talented (but still elite) Demaryius Thomas to an equal five-year, $70 million with less in total guarantees ($35 million, of course, is pretty hefty for a team that also has Emmanuel Sanders and potential second-year riser Cody Latimer), it looked like Thomas was the bigger winner of the two franchised receivers.

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After all, not only is Bryant the more dominant receiver in one-on-one matchups who commands more attention from opponents and is an even more decorated red zone weapon than Calvin Johnson was to this point in their careers (56-49 in touchdowns through their first five seasons in Bryant’s favor), but he also had a lot more leverage than Thomas did.

Thomas only got his deal done after Bryant did, and, unlike the Broncos, the Cowboys don’t have another sure-fire top-15 receiver on their roster. They also aren’t as good on defense and no longer have a better running back than C.J. Anderson with DeMarco Murray on the Philadelphia Eagles, so it’s clear that Bryant had the importance factor on his side.

Yet despite all of these advantages that clearly swing in Bryant’s favor, it was a bit weird to see both receivers scoring the same amount of money on their contracts with only a $10 million difference in guarantees. However, once you really break down both deals, you start to see that the Cowboys did indeed give Bryant the better deal.

In all likelihood, both elite receivers will “break even” and make the money on their deals as they “ball out” through the primes of their careers (perhaps with new QBs by the final year of their contracts), but when it comes to hedging their bets against injury and other risks, Bryant is the clear winner.

The first area of Bryant’s contract that must be examined is the total amount of guaranteed money, because the $32 million to $45 million jump in guarantees is an especially important part of the deal that showcases some real genius on Roc Nation’s part. See, the reason for the jump is the fact that if Bryant is on the Cowboys roster on the fifth day of the league year in 2016, his $13 million base salary (the highest total of any of the five years in his contract) in 2017 becomes fully guaranteed.

This basically means that there’s no way Bryant is cut in the first three years of his deal, because Bryant’s first two seasons are fully guaranteed, as per Spotrac. Barring anything insane, the Cowboys have to keep him for the 2016 season, which means they would also have to keep him in 2017.

Thomas’s deal is also fully guaranteed for the first two years, but the dead money drops all the way down from $21.8 million in 2016 to $6.6 million in 2017, whereas Bryant still has $8 million in dead cap when 2018 rolls around. That’s a notable difference, especially since the Cowboys are essentially guaranteed to pay him for his first three seasons of the contract.

Jan 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) tries to escape Detroit Lions outside linebacker DeAndre Levy (54) during the third quarter in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

In the final two seasons of his five-year deal, Thomas will have $6.6 million of dead money left on his contract, but Bryant will have nearly double that amount ($12 million). Even though both players will have larger cap hits than dead money on their deals in their final two seasons, it’s hard to see the Cowboys paying Bryant $8 million in 2018 for doing nothing after cutting him.

Thomas has the bigger cap hits at the beginning of his deal, but with more guaranteed money up front for the Broncos wideout, Bryant is actually, as you see above, more difficult to release later on in his career (when that risk manifests itself, since there’s no way either is cut in the first two years of their deals).

As I said earlier, the most likely final outcome for both players is that both former first-round picks from the 2010 draft class will end up playing out their deals and making $70 million. But in a league that is stacked against players making the full amount of their long-term deals, Dez Bryant is a massive winner. The fact that 50% of Thomas’s $70 million deal is guaranteed is huge for him, but the fact that Bryant’s 2017 season is all but certain to be guaranteed really puts his deal over the top.

Dec 14, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) is tackled by Philadelphia Eagles free safety Malcolm Jenkins (27) at Lincoln Financial Field. The Cowboys defeated the Eagles, 38-27. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Neither player was realistically expected to make $16 million per season (aka Megatron money), and the reasons are two-fold. Firstly, there’s a huge influx of wide receiver talent in this league, as evidenced by how well guys like Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, and Sammy Watkins played last year, as well as the fact that both Amari Cooper and Kevin White were top seven picks in this year’s class.

Secondly, Megatron’s deal came under the previous rookie wage-scale when rookies, such as Cam Newton and Ndamukong Suh, were given exorbitant deals, and that includes elite rookie wideouts like A.J. Green, who is also due for a new deal.

So while Johnson’s deal is still the richest for a wide receiver in NFL history in terms of total value, Bryant’s ability to net the most guaranteed money for a WR in history cannot be undersold. Roc Nation did a brilliant job of negotiating his deal, and, as I said after his famed “I am serious about holding out” tweet, he played his cards perfectly.

With a deal that is structured so that the Dallas Cowboys are putting a huge amount of trust in a player they previously leaked negative reports about on gamedays (and who was the subject of an unfair parking lot video hoax), Bryant and his agency looks like downright geniuses.

Jan 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) carries the ball after a catch chased by Detroit Lions defensive end Jason Jones (91) during the first quarter in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, Bryant’s status as perhaps the biggest winner of the offseason doesn’t mean that the Cowboys are “losers”, because that’s the kind of money the 26-year-old is worth. He’s a top-five receiver who has been one of the most consistent and dynamic playmakers in the NFL, recording at least 88 receptions, 77 yards per game, 12 touchdowns, and 16 games played in each of the past three seasons.

His body of work speaks for itself, so credit the Cowboys for not being afraid to trust a durable receiver who makes his teammates infinitely better and, contrary to those inane #hottaeks, is a key part of the locker room who has kept his nose clean off the field.

Bryant set the market for future wide receiver contracts, such as Thomas’s, and if none of the above analysis of the guarantees in his contract convinces you that he played his cards brilliantly, then hopefully Indianapolis Colts star wideout T.Y. Hilton’s reaction on Twitter following the reported figures of the Bryant and Thomas deals causes you to reconsider.

There’s no doubt that Thomas did well for himself with his contract, especially consider his relative lack of leverage with Sanders and Latimer on the roster (as well as Anderson at RB, if that counts for anything), but the usually guaranteed-money-stingy Cowboys willingness to spend big-time guaranteed dollars in a player-friendly structure is a huge vote of confidence in Bryant’s consistency and overall ability. Despite the old narratives, it’s a safe bet, even if it’s an expensive one that deservingly rewards their star wideout handsomely with more guarantees than anyone else at the position ever.

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