Green Bay Packers 2015 Predictions: WR Randall Cobb

The Green Bay Packers are on the cusp of opening up training camp, which will bring a merciful end to the quietest point on the annual NFL calendar. Ahead of the 2015 season, we’ll be forecasting the production of the Green Bay Packers most prominent offensive weapons.

Earlier this week, we looked at a potential regression in the receiving statistics of Cobb’s fellow starter, Jordy Nelson, but predicted that quarterback Aaron Rodgers would eclipse the 40 touchdown plateau for the second time in his career. Like Nelson, Cobb is due to take a moderate step backwards for the Green Bay Packers, but doing so could be beneficial if it comes as part of a more diverse and dynamic offensive attack.

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The 2014 season was Cobb’s first season as a true starter in Green Bay after injuries shortened his 2013 season and a stacked depth chart kept him under 1,000 yards in 2012 despite 80 receptions.

The emergence of second-year man Davante Adams will have the most prominent impact on Cobb, because if Adams is able to take some snaps on the outside in three-wide sets, it frees Cobb to attack linebackers in coverage over the middle. Cobb represents the ultimate chess piece for Green Bay, especially with his sneaky value out of the backfield. While his impact plays and yards-per-reception could take a hit if he is used in more of a slot role, expect Cobb to be heavily, heavily involved.

Targets & Receptions – 118 for 87

You’ll continue to see similarities to our Nelson predictions here, because despite the regression these numbers would entail, it still leaves Cobb as an impact receiver and WR1 for fantasy football purposes. If Adams can take on a James Jones type of role, it could set Cobb up for statistics similar to 2012 where he caught a high percentage of his targets, but for a lesser yardage total per reception.

Whereas someone like Nelson could be targeted more prominently on deep routes, I expect the majority of Cobb’s targets to hit him within 10-to-12 yards and allow the jitterbug to create yardage on his own. Don’t underestimate the role of Richard Rodgers in this equation, either, as his ability to draw a linebacker or safety high into coverage could open up the heart of the field for Cobb.

Receiving yardage – 1,170

This projection would bring Cobb’s yards-per-reception down slightly from 14.1 in 2014 to 13.6. This places Cobb between his 2012 and 2014 production with the Green Bay Packers, while allowing room for his growth during that time.

Cobb had an impressive 24 receptions of 20 yards or more in 2014, which doesn’t seem all that sustainable when you consider that Jordy Nelson had just 19. In fact, only Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones tallied more than Cobb in that category.

Touchdowns – 10

This is an obvious category to predict another slight regression in, but I remain more optimistic than most that Cobb can continue to be a touchdown threat. For his fantasy football owners, this is critical. I trust Cobb to score a handful of touchdowns from distance, but his value in the red zone cannot be dismissed just because he stands below 6’3″.

Cobb works the back line of an end zone as well as anyone in the league, and offers a great scatter option when Aaron Rodgers chooses to move outside of the pocket. Especially with a strong offensive line that has the potential to buy Rodgers an extra split-second, Cobb will continue to be a difficult coverage assignment in small areas.

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