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New York Jets: What to make of early optimism on Geno Smith?

By Kevin Parvizi

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Former New York Jets GM John Idzik tried his best to put his hopeful franchise quarterback Geno Smith in a position to succeed by signing Eric Decker, trading for Percy Harvin, and drafting Jace Amaro last season. That wasn’t enough to save his job, as Smith struggled and really only had Decker to lean on in 2014.

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That obviously won’t be the case in 2015, as the Jets made two more upgrades to their wide receiver corps by trading for star Brandon Marshall and acquiring Devin Smith in a trade. Even though Smith’s chances of a rookie impact could be in jeopardy following his injury, cutting out valuable preseason time, adding a young deep threat with good change-of-direction skills is rarely a bad idea.

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Based on his solid performances for West Virginia in college, I don’t think anybody expected Smith to play as poorly as he did in his first two NFL seasons. While he showed off excellent arm strength, mental toughness, and above-average mobility, his first two years were marred by some of the worst decision-making at the position. Some of the interceptions he  threw were downright laughable, and it didn’t help that the Jets secondary was largely a burn-prone mess, thus putting Smith under more pressure to try and make something happen on offense.

It’s not like the Jets offensive set-up was favorable under Marty Mornhinweg either, and one of the biggest reasons why Smith has been hyped up as a third-year breakout candidate, aside from a second straight monster Week 17 performance against the Miami Dolphins, is the fact that the Jets offensive coordinator is Chan Gailey. We all saw what Gailey did with Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Nelson, and Donald Jones (the latter two aren’t in the league right now), so you can only imagine what he’ll be able to do with a QB who fits a spread offense perfectly and has plenty of pass-catching talent around him.

We all know that the ingredients are there for the 24-year-old to finally make good on his college potential and physical tools, but his success now hinges on his mental tools. Can he make the right decisions? Will he display much better anticipation and more consistent ball placement?

Everybody knows that drawing conclusions from a few training camp practices is a dangerous game, but at least it seems like Smith is turning a corner. According to ESPN New York’s Ohm Youngmisuk, Smith, who will be given every opportunity to start over the more proven but less talented Fitzpatrick, has yet to throw an interception in training camp thus far.

Although it’s been only four practices, it’s safe to say that this constitutes a positive development for the New York Jets organization, because the one thing that could undermine Todd Bowles‘s first season the most is poor decision-making from Smith.

Armed with a hard-nosed rushing attack, receivers like Decker and Marshall, and one of the NFL’s elite defenses on paper, the Jets are built to threaten for a playoff spot. There’s no question that their quarterback has the tools to make the tough throws, so it’s all up to him to avoid throwing the Jets season- and what could be his final opportunity as a starter in this league- away.

Training camp updates mean precious little without a real game environment, and Geno Smith won’t inspire true confidence until he proves himself in those situations. But the news that he’s avoided throwing any interceptions is indeed a positive, because you only have to go a little bit north in the state of New York to see a third-year quarterback who has made absolutely no progress.

Dec 28, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws a pass against the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

I am, of course, talking about E.J. Manuel, who has been so poor ever since the Bills took him in the first round of the draft that he could even lose out to Matt Cassel this offseason despite Cassel’s horrific reviews from various beat writers throughout the offseason.

The Jets are going to give Smith a short leash after he threw for less than a 60% completion percentage in both of his first two seasons with 6.9 yards per attempt with a whopping 34 interceptions to just 25 touchdowns. Those are dreadful numbers, so for him to not even throw a pick at practice, again, qualifies as encouraging improvement.

If Smith’s mental progression is real, then he could make that expected jump from “awful” to “average” (let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet), and that should be good enough for the Jets due to the talent they’ve assembled after one of the most aggressive offseason of any team. The AFC East is tougher than ever, but, well, so are the Jets, and they could take the next step if Smith does. So far, so good, even if “so far” isn’t “far” at this point, which is something head coach Todd Bowles was quick to point out.

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