C.J. Anderson 2015 Fantasy Football Projection

The Denver Broncos have some intriguing depth at the running back position in Montee Ball, Juwan Thompson, and change-of-pace guy Ronnie Hillman, but it’s clear that C.J. Anderson is the best back on the roster. In 179 carries and 34 receptions last season, Anderson looked dominant, and he has the potential to be one of the best three-down backs in the NFL today. I mean, I ranked him as a top ten RB earlier this offseason, and I’m not the only one who is bullish on his 2015 prospects with a full season of work under his belt (he had just seven credited starts last year).

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But if you are equally bullish on Anderson’s skills, then you will have to pay a premium price for him in fantasy football. With an average-draft position that ranks eighth among RBs, people are taking him higher than DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Hill.

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That’s not without good reason, of course, because Anderson’s analytics from last season are worth drooling over. As per Pro-Football Reference, the man averaged 4.7 yards per carry with a 77.3% catch rate, meaning that he put up 7.4 yards per target, which is some highly impressive work in the passing game.

According to Pro Football Focus, he got more than the real estate given to him by his line or by Peyton Manning, as just six running backs forced more tackles in either the running game or the passing game than Anderson, who is both physical and elusive. His 2.54 yards after contact per carry tied him with Murray for the 12th-best mark in the league, so that was another feather for Anderson to put in his cap as a 2014 breakout star.

And even though there are other backs champing at the bit on the Broncos roster, new head coach Gary Kubiak has made it clear that he isn’t going to deviate from his philosophy.

He said, as per the Denver Post’s Troy E. Renck, “I can tell you this, I believe in the (bell cow). And I believe it’s up to the player to prove he can do that. Do you need two guys in a season? You are darn right, in this league. But I think if a guy goes out there and he shows he can play three downs, can protect the quarterback, and can handle it, then he should stay out there.”

Ball, Hillman, and Thompson have talent, but Anderson looked like one of the best backs in the league last season in all three facets of the game. He can handle everything, and, as we saw down the stretch of the regular season when Manning was struggling badly with an injury, Anderson has the ability to carry an offense with his legs.

With Manning aging, Anderson’s ability to carry the load and make plays in the passing game will be even more important to this team, and it’s going to be hard for the Broncos to take him off of the field in their march to the Super Bowl victory that has still eluded them despite all of their success with Manning at the helm.

But what kind of numbers can we expect from Anderson as a key fantasy contributor in 2015? It’s hard to project volume by looking at what the Broncos did last season or what Anderson did, so it’s far more fruitful to look at how Kubiak has handled his backs in the past (Foster’s injury caused me to throw out 2013 stats).

2014 Justin Forsett: 235 carries, 59 targets (did not start two games)

2012 Arian Foster: 351 carries, 58 targets

2011 Foster: 278 carries, 72 targets (missed three games)

2010 Foster: 327 carries, 84 targets

The Broncos threw the ball 607 times in 2014, but we can fully expect the split between pass and run to narrow, with more work going to the running game. That much is obvious, as the Texans once ran the ball more times than they threw it back in the 2011 season. And while it can be argued that Foster was a more established option and thus Anderson won’t approach his carry totals (which is why Forsett was under 250 despite his gaudy yards per carry average that hit 5.4), the Broncos rising star could still be a threat to hit 300 carries.

June 9, 2015; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) prepares to pass during the start of mini camp activities at the Broncos training facility. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

He’s definitely a lock for 300 touches with good health, though, assuming he picks up where he left off from last season’s monstrous second-half. Based on Foster’s target numbers and the higher volume of passing attempts in the Denver offense, Anderson could hit 80 targets this upcoming season. Hillman could steal some looks in the passing game after catching 21 passes last year, but he isn’t even a lock to make the roster.

On the other hand, C.J. Anderson is a lock to start after what he did last year, and his prowess in the passing game (as evidenced by his 7.4 yards per target and 15 missed tackles forced on 34 receptions) indicates that he deserves more targets than Foster ever did. That will all depend on the Broncos offensive philosophy with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders hoarding targets with the promising Cody Latimer behind them, but it’s safe to say that Anderson will command opportunities in the passing game.

At a modest projection in 16 full games, 250 carries at 4.5 YPC, 75 targets with 7.0 yards per target, and 12 total touchdowns (after all, he had an impressive ten TDs last year in 213 touches, which is 21.3 touches per score) seems like a healthy projection. If we assume a 75% catch rate (again, playing it safe), that means Anderson will have 306 touches and 1,650 yards from scrimmage with about 12 touchdowns (he would have 14 based on last year’s place, but let’s assume we are being more mild here).

That’s 237 fantasy points, and only three backs last year (Murray, Le’Veon Bell, and Marshawn Lynch) put up more than 249 last season. Even if we account for fumbles lost, he’d have to lose four fumbles to be fifth behind Matt Forte in scoring last season, which is still a great place to be.

May 27, 2015; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak walks the field past quarterback Peyton Manning (18) before the start of organized team activities at the Broncos training facility. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

If you want to be incredibly bullish, then you could have Anderson at 278 carries (same as Foster in 2011) with 4.7 YPC (same as last year) with 85 targets (Moreno had 74 in 2013) and 7.4 yards per target (same as last year with a 77.3% catch rate). That would give Anderson 1,936 yards from scrimmage with 344 touches for 16 touchdowns and a total of 283 fantasy points if he fumbles the ball three times. That would have scored him one point over Murray for the highest-scoring RB in fantasy. He has No. 1 upside, if you look at his scoring record last season and role in the passing game

The latter projection most likely isn’t happening, but it is worth noting that 1,400 rushing yards has been thrown around as a possible total for him. So it’s actually feasible. But it’s clear that Anderson has the upside to be a top-five fantasy back next season, and I’m willing to bet on him despite the relatively high ADP that, again, puts him above more established options like Murray and McCoy. But since running backs are at their best when they are young and can make an impact in the passing game and running game, I’m willing to strike while they iron is hot.

Anderson has insane upside due to the situation that playing running back for the Broncos presents, and he’s clearly the best RB that the team has had in the Manning era. With more of an emphasis on running the ball, Anderson has a chance to shine after blowing it up last year in the “MT”, “YPC”, “TD”, and “YPT” stat columns, and an added bonus is the fact that 24-year-olds heading into their second seasons of significant playing time generally get better. If he’s healthy, he’s a top-ten back at worst, based on last year’s phenomenal and well-rounded analytics; he has all the tools.

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