Green Bay Packers: Will Richard Rodgers impress as starter?

By virtue of the fact that he led the Green Bay Packers tight ends in snaps on offense, Andrew Quarless was the starter over rookie Richard Rodgers last season, but despite the fact that Rodgers was taken in the third round of the 2014 NFL Draft after an impressive career at Cal, that was to be expected. Rookie tight ends generally don’t have a great deal of success in this league, as even Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski needed a season before exploding to superstardom.

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Rodgers isn’t going to be the next star tight end, but the Packers have hopes for him as a key part of this offense. The learning curve for any pass-catcher in this league is steep, but it’s especially steep for tight end who also need to learn to block at an NFL-caliber level. Rodgers failed to show up in that sense last year, but it’s especially hard to transition to a complex Packers offense where it can be tough to earn Aaron Rodgers‘s trust.

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Despite being out-snapped 645-491 by Quarless last season, as per Pro Football Focus, Richard Rodgers did seem to gain the trust of both his quarterback and coaching staff. As the season wore on, the former Cal star became a bigger part of the offense and finished the year with a season-high five receptions for 40 yards against the Detroit Lions before hauling in a TD against the Dallas Cowboys and making four catches against the always on-point Seattle Seahawks defense.

Rodgers is rising, and his rise amounted to him being named the Packers starting tight end today, which constitutes as “News Of The Day” material out of Packers training camp. The starting spots are tentative and are technically formalities (after all, Clay Matthews is listed as an outside linebacker on the depth chart, even though his situation is more complicated than that), but we have every reason to believe that Rodgers would be the starting tight end if this season started today.

The first piece of evidence pointing in that direction is this nugget from ESPN NFL Nation’s Rob Demovsky in a mailbag feature back in late March:

"“To expect him to make the jump to a 50-catch guy would be unrealistic. But the sense is they think Rodgers can become that. How certain they are about that will dictate how high they need to address the position in the draft.”"

Kennard Backman qualifies as a guy with long-term upside, and he looked pretty darn impressive at his pro day for UAB. But he’s more of a flier guy than anything else as a seventh-round pick, which brings me back to Demovsky’s statement well before the draft. If the Packers view of the tight end position with Rodgers and Quarless leading the way would be tipped by the way they addressed the position in the draft, then it’s safe to say that waiting until the seventh was a vote of confidence in Rodgers, who, of course, was drafted the year before, but a show of concern for a lack of long-term depth at the position.

Is Rodgers a 50-catch guy? Perhaps in the future, but he’ll have to continue to make progress as a blocker and show that he deserves to see the field enough to merit those further opportunities in the passing game. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will hoard targets with Davante Adams and Eddie Lacy chiming in, and Jeff Janis is always lurking around the corner as the likely No. 4 receiver. Rodgers will have his chances, but, as it goes in the Packers offense, they will have to be earned.

Quarless’s off-field incident this offseason hasn’t hurt his standing with the organization, and he remains the Packers best blocker and safest option. But he isn’t their starter, and despite the fact that he has more raw athleticism and moves better than Rodgers, the latter is younger and more worthy of a second look in a pass-happy offense.

The Green Bay Packers may be high on Rodgers, but he’ll have to make a significant leap in his second season in order to receive the same kind of hope from others who may have been less than impressed by his rookie numbers. His 66.7% catch rate and 7.5 yards per target, as per Advanced Football Analytics, but those are pretty mediocre when you look at his quarterback’s 8.4 yards per attempt.

Oct 26, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) against the New Orleans Saints during the second quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

That said, he did look like a capable chain-mover with that nifty catch rate, and, according to PFF, he had just one drop to his name in 21 targets. More efficient than Quarless on a “per route run” basis, Rodgers is the better option in the slot, and that could make all the difference for his chances at having an impressive second season in Green Bay.

Ultimately, he should be about an average piece for the Packers offense, and his ability to make the safe catch will be of value as a TE slot option who can add versatility to the offense. Quarless has to be regarded as the Packers best pure in-line TE due to his superior blocking (unless Rodgers makes a jump in that regard), but Rodgers outplayed him in the passing game last year.

He’ll have to be even better in the passing game next year and show better movement skills, but we have every reason to believe that he’ll improve at least modestly due to the Packers praise for him and the fact that tight ends generally get noticeably better after one season. As long as he continues to show good hands, he could prove to be a key red zone threat for this team, and that’s enough to make him a successful part of the offense when you factor in the natural bonus of having a credible “move” tight end.

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