Latavius Murray 2015 Fantasy Football Projection

The Oakland Raiders offense is clearly a unit on the rise in 2015, though the disclaimer is that they have nowhere to go but up after averaging the second-least points per game in the NFL last season (15.8). Derek Carr finally has legit targets to toss it to in Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Rod Streater, and fluid rookie tight end Clive Walford, but perhaps the biggest reason for optimism in Oakland is the improved running game thanks to the Latavius Murray hype.

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Murray finally got his shot last year after the Raiders grew tired of watching Maurice Jones-Drew (now retired) and Darren McFadden (now with the Dallas Cowboys and, of course, injured) suck. Seriously, they formed one of the worst running back duos I’ve ever seen, which is why the Raiders had the least amount of rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns (4) last year. McFadden averaged 3.4 yards per carry on 155 rushes, whereas MJD was mercifully held to just 43 rushing attempts due to his comical 2.2 yards per carry average.

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Neither could blame the offensive line either, because Murray came right in and averaged 5.2 yards per carry despite averaging just 1.96 yards after contact per carry, as per Pro Football Focus. He averaged so little yards after contact per carry last season that his mark was lower than Alfred Blue‘s, which is a concerning stat for those who are hoping that Murray can be a good RB2 for them in fantasy football.

Of course, Murray was a whole lot more impressive than Blue last season, as evidenced by his highlight-reel run against the Kansas City Chiefs and his 5.2 YPC. And unlike Blue, Murray is an athletic freak who ran a sub-4.4 forty in college and has plenty of strength with his 6’3″, 230-pound frame. He’s confirmed the hype in training camp by impressing the Raiders, and they’ve pretty much handed the featured back role to him.

Roy Helu will be there to steal third-down looks after a quietly excellent 2014 season with the Washington Redskins, and there’s a case to be made that Helu is one of the NFL’s most underrated backs. But he’s not as talented of a rusher as Murray, whose combination of strength and speed make him worthy of the Raiders feature back gig. As we saw last season, he’s as explosive as they come, and he only has a few questions to answer about his ability. That said, these questions are important, and the answers to them will dictate his fantasy value and his real-life value to the Raiders in 2015.

1. Can he generate yardage on his own without the help of his offensive line after low missed tackles and after contact numbers last year?

2. Can he do it when he gets a bigger workload and sample size than 82 rushes and 17 receptions?

3. Will he be consistent or is he just a home-run threat?

The third question is interesting, because only Atlanta Falcons change-of-pace guy Antone Smith had a higher percentage of runs of at least 15 yards, with Murray having eight such plays (as many as Matt Forte). You could take out those runs and make the case that Murray was stuffed more than he should have been, but the home-run rushes add value to Murray and can’t be taken away. He’s a back with big-play potential, and while he could be a volatile week-to-week option if he doesn’t get a big play in a given game, he’ll be fine as long as he’s used as a 20-carry feature back.

With an ADP of 19th, Latavius Murray is being taken ahead of Jonathan Stewart, Jospeh Randle, Todd Gurley, Andre Ellington, and T.J. Yeldon by most fantasy owners. That’s an appropriate place for him, because he’s also behind more steady options like Carlos Hyde and Lamar Miller.

Murray and Joseph Randle are in relatively similar situations, but while Randle’s offensive line is even better and he’s in a more favorable offense, Murray is the more talented backs. Both players had high YPC numbers and plenty of long runs to boost their YPCs in limited touches last year, but Murray’s superior athletic gifts make him the slightly more attractive fantasy player.

Meanwhile, Ellington and Stewart are more proven options, but they are more recognized as injury-prone backs who carry that risk. That said, I’d rather have those two, because Murray also has an extensive injury history that dates back to a torn ACL in college, in addition to a fractured ankle that costed him his rookie year. Gurley and Yeldon are rookies with Gurley also having injury red flags, so that’s why Murray comes in before them.

It’s difficult to project Murray’s stats, because not only did he receive just 82 carries last year, but the Raiders offense will also look a whole lot more different next season. If he stays healthy, 200-250 carries and 20-30 receptions is a safe range to put his numbers. I could see him finishing the year with 4.4 yards per carry on 230 rushes for 1,012 yards and six total touchdowns (based on last season’s two TDs in 82 carries) with 200 receiving yards on 25 receptions (8.4 yards per reception like last year).

May 26, 2015; Alameda, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray (28) carries the ball at organized team activities at the Raiders practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

That would give him 131 fantasy points if we assume he fumbles three times, which would put him at exactly 19th in scoring among running backs last year, just one point behind Cincinnati Bengals pass-catching specialist Giovani Bernard. Murray is a more talented rusher than Bernard, but we have to stay conservative with the projections due to his lack of past production and his injury risk.

Bill Musgrave has worked with the cream of the crop at the running back position in the past with Fred Taylor and Adrian Peterson as his two most notable clients, and he should have fun taking advantage of Murray’s skills behind a really good offensive line that includes Donald Penn, Gabe Jackson, and big-money center Rodney Hudson. The opportunity is there for Murray to be a top-15 fantasy back, but it’s safer to expect him to hover somewhere near 20th.

The bottom line is that Murray’s ADP at 19th is exactly a fair value based on what we can realistically expect from him in his first season as a starter, and the hype on him is indeed appropriate. Again, he has the tools and the means, so it’s just about staying healthy and being consistent.

Next: Who Is The Raiders Best MVP Candidate?

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