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Seattle Seahawks: Doug Baldwin 2015 Fantasy Football Projection

By Kevin Parvizi

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The Seattle Seahawks greatly boosted their passing attack this offseason by trading for superstar tight end Jimmy Graham, who is clearly the favorite to lead the team in targets after hauling in 85 receptions in 2014 for the fourth straight season. Playing second fiddle to Graham will be possession receiver Doug Baldwin, who finished the 2014 season with a team-leading 66 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns, which tied with tight end Luke Willson for second on the team.

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For much of the 2014 season, Baldwin was Russell Wilson‘s only competent target, and he was miscast as a No. 1 receiver with Jermaine Kearse finishing the season with 38 receptions while operating as the No. 2 target in the Seahawks offense. Baldwin has quietly been one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL, as he followed up his breakout 2013 season’s 10.7 yards per target with 8.4 yards per target last year, as per Advanced Football Analytics, in a much more difficult role (he averaged less yards per reception).

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Despite being the team’s best target, Baldwin earned just 98 targets and was not much of a factor in the red zone, so he was only fantasy football’s 44th-leading receiver in scoring. Like Golden Tate before him, Baldwin’s rate stats weren’t converted to sizeable counting stats in a run-heavy offense, and, just like Tate, his real-life impact on the Seahawks offense was much more profound than his fantasy impact.

Going into the 2015 season, it’s easy to see why Baldwin’s ADP is hovering at around 55th at the wide receiver position, and that’s because despite catch rates of 68.5% and 67.3% in each of the past two seasons, his targets of 73 and 98 undermine his fantasy impact.

And with Graham joining the team, Baldwin has now been roundly relegated to the second target in the passing game, and there’s a small chance he could slip even further if the Seahawks decide they want to use Tyler Lockett more often (and if the talented rookie immediately shines at WR just as much as he’s shined on returns here in the preseason).

It’s hard to be high on the 26-year-old slot and “Z” receiver simply because of the set-up of the offense, and since he’s just 5’10” on a team loaded with big receivers, Baldwin might actually have a higher chance of putting up less than three touchdown receptions than he does of surpassing last season’s total. He had five TD receptions in the 2013 season, but he could see his TD-scoring opportunities decline for a second straight season.

Outside of Graham, the Seattle Seahawks pass-catchers are seen as worth avoiding in fantasy football, especially since they have arguably the NFL’s best red zone weapon (Dez Bryant is the only other guy in that discussion in my book) on their side. Sure, Graham might be asked to block a lot more in Seattle than while with the New Orleans Saints, but he’s still going to be “The Guy” in key situations (and overall). I mean, you don’t trade a first-round pick and a top-notch center for someone who is going to be the No. 2 guy behind Baldwin, right?

But if you think about it, Baldwin is still a tad undervalued as the 55th receiver off the board in most leagues, and it goes beyond the fact that he was 44th in scoring last season. I’d take him over Percy Harvin, DeVante Parker, Davante Adams, and a couple of other names at the position. Lockett’s ADP is only five spots below Baldwin’s, and while Lockett has more natural talent and upside, it’s Baldwin who has the set role in the offense. He has a good connection with Wilson, excellent hands, solid route-running chops, inside-outside ability, and is a strong wideout who can win in tough spots.

Baldwin’s lack of standout physical tools hurts him in the ADP game, so he’s a low-risk, buy-low candidate you can plug in on the bench. There might not be a more boring wide receiver out there who is worth rostering in 12-team leagues, but Doug Baldwin, until proven otherwise, is the No. 2 target on his team and has put up 778 and 825 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons.

Even though Graham and Lockett are on board, Baldwin should still have around the 98 targets he received last season, because I think most of the targets are going to come from Kearse (69), Paul Richardson (44), Percy Harvin (26), Willson (40), and Cooper Helfet (24). Richardson is worth watching as an explosive second-year player who could put it together after returning from his ACL tear, but he could just as easily end up making no impact this season.

Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) reacts after catching a touchdown pass against the New England Patriots in the third quarter in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Seahawks wide receiver corps is the most promising it’s been over the last few years, but Baldwin’s role should remain unchanged. That means we can reasonably expect another 90 targets from him with about 67% of them being caught at around 13 yards per reception. This would give him about 60 receptions for 780 yards and three touchdowns or a total of 96 fantasy points.

That’s not much, but it would have ranked him in the top 50 last year along with Cleveland Browns slot guy Andrew Hawkins in 50th, so that’s a handful of spots above his ADP. This is also a conservative projection, since it assumes less targets and another low touchdown output from Baldwin, with the only gains coming in the form of yards per reception (less pressure on him with better receivers around him).

An improved supporting cast hurts Baldwin’s fantasy outlook, but it is worth noting that it could improve his efficiency. Since nobody else figures to fill his role in 2015 and since he produced at a high clip following the Harvin deal, he might even hit 100 targets next season, thus making his best-case numbers similar to last season’s haul (except with more touchdowns).

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