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Le’Veon Bell 2015 Fantasy Football Projection

By Kevin Parvizi

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Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell is one of just 11 running backs in NFL history to have a season with ten touchdowns from scrimmage, 70 receptions, and 1,361 rushing yards, as he blossomed in 2014 behind an offensive line that finally gave him some holes. Bell’s two-game suspension to start the 2015 season hurts his fantasy football prospects for the full season, and this has caused his ADP in standard leagues to fall to fourth among RBs behind Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy (in that order).

ALSO ON SPIN ZONE: Where Does Bell Rank Among Best RBs In NFL?

Fantasy players who are high on their ability to make it into the playoffs without having their top player for the first two weeks will be willing to take Bell higher than that. Take my NFL Spin Zone colleague Aryan von Eicken, for example, ranked Bell as his top fantasy back in standard leagues despite the two missed games, since he’s a firm believer in weighing late-season fantasy success over early-season success.

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Whether or not you subscribe to that theory, Bell is clearly the first player taken off the board in a certain type of league, as he’s the consensus No. 1 for both players and experts in PPR leagues. That is, of course, understandable, as he was 19th in the NFL in receptions last season with 83, and this actually tied him with San Francisco 49ers No. 1 target Anquan Boldin on the leader board. Only Chicago Bears three-down back Matt Forte had more receptions, but Bell is clearly the more talented pass-catcher and Forte won’t come near 130 targets with Marc Trestman gone.

Bell’s ability to make defenders miss has been well-documented, and he is, as we saw in his rookie season, tougher between the tackles than most agile backs. Deadly in space after the catch, Bell, who caught 79.0% of everything thrown at him, led the league with 29 missed tackles forced in the passing game, per Pro Football Focus, with a solid 10.3 yards per reception.

Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, who had 86 and 48 targets last season, respectively, look poised for bigger roles in the Steelers offense, so Bell might get less than 6.56 targets per game. We can’t automatically assume that, though, because those guys don’t change Bell’s usage as a screen outlet, and it’s more likely that Heath Miller‘s 91 targets- or even Antonio Brown‘s whopping 181- fall in order to boost Wheaton’s and Bryant’s roles.

But if we do assume that Bell’s opportunities fall to about 6.3 per game (about 100 over a 16-game season) and he has a similar yards per target average ( 8.1 last year), then he would have 88 targets in 14 games for 713 yards.

Bell is, of course, just as talented as a pure runner and had the league’s third-most missed tackles forced on the ground last year, as per PFF, to prove it. Additionally, he averaged 85.1 yards per game on 18.1 attempts per game with 4.7 yards per carry and plenty of lung-busting runs to give the Steelers even more of a playmaking spark.

I’m not a big fan of DeAngelo Williams as a No. 2 back due to his constant injuries last year and the fact that he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 63 rushes. The 32-year-old had 843 rushing yards back in the 2013 season when he played in 15 games, but D-Will has to prove that he isn’t done this season.

Even though I have little faith in Williams, he is a stronger backup running back to Bell than what the Steelers had last season. LeGarrette Blount isn’t short on talent, but it never seemed like he was interested in helping the Steelers out and had just 65 carries for the team. Heck, Ben Roethlisberger was third on the Steelers in rushing attempts last season, so that pretty much tells you what you need to know about how much backs outside of Bell contributed to the offense.

I’d say that Williams will steal some carries from Bell, but there’s no way the Steelers bell-cow back’s usage falls significantly. They know how important he is to this team, and they know just how dominant he is on the ground. If he does get 18 attempts per game again, then that would be 252 rushing attempts. If he averages 4.7 yards per carry again, then that would be about 1,184 rushing yards.

Bell had 36.25 rushes per touchdown and 35 targets per receiving touchdown, but it’s worth noting that he also had eight touchdowns as a rookie albeit on 46 less carries. Using 35 targets and 36.25 rushing attempts per TD for 88 targets and 252 rushes, Bell would have ten touchdowns from scrimmage after putting up 11 last season.

All of this would give him roughly 249 fantasy points, which would have been fourth among running backs last season, which is why his ADP is around fourth. But he could be drafted higher by those who would like to have him in the fantasy playoffs, so he’s slightly undervalued in standard leagues from the perspective of those who would like to bet on their future success in the league by pouncing on Le’Veon Bell.

Bell is too talented and too big of a part of the Steelers offense to pass up on at No. 1 overall in standard leagues for those of you who are willing to take an early-season risk. The above numbers I used are slightly optimistic with regards to his usage upon his return, but he’s a third-year back who will be fresher than ever when he comes back from the two games he missed with a suspension; I’m willing to bet on him producing at a high level when he’s on the field.

Next: Where Do Steelers WRs Rank Among NFL's Best?

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