Green Bay Packers: How would Reggie Wayne fit?

The Green Bay Packers have superstar wide receiver Randall Cobb and a wealth of young pass-catchers who could be big factors due to Aaron Rodgers‘s ability to accentuate a receiver’s specific strengths, but even these positives still don’t prevent the Packers from reeling following the season-ending injury to Jordy Nelson on a non-contact play in a meaningless football game. Nelson is undoubtedly a top-ten receiver, and few players move as smoothly as he does, and he’s a natural tracker of the ball who is as good as any receiver at getting open downfield.

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It’s why Rodgers loves playing with him, and it’s why Nelson is an ideal “X” receiver who puts up jaw-dropping numbers with relative ease. The “He’s a product of Rodgers” is an argument that doesn’t really exist, mostly because the vast majority of NFL fans understand just how good of a receiver he is.

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You can’t find No. 1 receivers on the free agent market right now, because the only available receivers are bottom-of-the-depth-chart guys and old veterans who are looking to bounce back. The latter types of receivers gather headlines, and former Indianapolis Colts legend Reggie Wayne is obviously one of those players.

Not only are the New England Patriots, who have seen many of their WRs go down with minor injuries this August, taking a look at the 36-year-old, but the Packers have now thrown their hats into the ring. Both teams were linked to Wayne earlier in the offseason, and ESPN’s Dianna Marie Russini somewhat coyly reported that the Packers are “calling” up Wayne.

There’s still hope that Nelson doesn’t have a torn ACL and might not miss the entire season, so the Packers are anxiously waiting for his MRI results to come in as confirmation or refutation of the worst-case news that was reported yesterday.

In the meantime, the Packers are looking into other options, and it’s fair to wonder how exactly Wayne would fit. Given that Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery, and Jared Abbrederis are all in their first or second seasons in the league, it’s safe to say that the Packers have an opening for an old guy.

This old guy, Wayne, certainly looked his age last season, as he didn’t recover well from his torn ACL and also had to deal with a triceps injury. The Colts didn’t exactly show faith in Wayne bouncing back from these injuries, but perhaps the interest from two fully legitimate Super Bowl contenders (yes, the Packers are still a great team even without Nelson) is a sign that he has more bounce-back potential than skeptics like me think.

Why am I skeptical of Wayne? Well, for starters, he stunk last season. It wasn’t just the fact that he lacked speed and explosiveness and failed to consistently get separation, he also dropped the ball far more than usual. Pro Football Focus docked him with a whopping nine drops last year, but that wasn’t the worst of it.

Dec 8, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass to wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) during the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Only seven receivers gave their quarterback a worse QB Rating when they were targeted than Wayne, who had Andrew Luck throwing him passes. His injuries are a good excuse for his drop in production, but you have to wonder if he’ll ever recover from them. I mean, injuries or not, a player isn’t going to stick around if they catch just 55.2% of everything thrown at them in an elite passing attack. And yes, that was indeed Wayne’s catch rate last year, as per Advanced Football Analytics, despite the fact that he was a clear possession receiver who averaged just 12.2 yards per reception.

It’s important to remember that we’ve seen Rodgers do more with less at the wide receiver position, and Jarrett Boykin‘s 2013 season as an injury replacement is a perfect example of that. Boykin was drop-prone and lacked any sort of speed, but he could get open in intermediate ranges and had plenty of strength; Rodgers turned him into a useful target.

Wayne is still a savvy route-runner and should show better hands next season, so if he is steadily recovering from his injuries and can show a bit more juice in his legs, then perhaps he could be a valid “Z” receiver for the Green Bay Packers with more explosive players like Janis, Montgomery, and No. 2 WR Adams surrounding him.

If signed, Wayne would be at best the No. 3 receiver and play the “Z” in the Packers base three-wide packages with Cobb in the slot and Adams as the “X”. Janis seems like a better “X” and Adams a better “Z”, so Wayne isn’t necessarily a great fit. But Adams has more downfield speed and has more ability at the catch point, so I’d rather see him as the “X”.

Aside from his experience, bounce-back potential, and status as the best available free agent wide receiver, Reggie Wayne isn’t a great fit for the Packers. He could help them if he proves to be healthy and is worth a shot if the Packers can avoid paying him anything in guarantees, but going beyond that could be hard to justify for a player who didn’t seem to have much left in the tank last year.

One important thing to keep in mind about Wayne is that he has a lot of pride and wants to play. So while he may be an upgrade over some random practice squad guy on the roster, the issue is whether or not he’s enough of an upgrade over someone like Montgomery or Janis to justify spending money on (and taking developing snaps away from those aforementioned youngsters).

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