Peyton Manning 2015 Fantasy Football Projection

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning was sacked three times, pressured often, and finished with a 62.9 QB Rating and an interception in yesterday’s preseason game against the San Francisco 49ers. Afterwards, Manning stated that the Broncos offense is still figuring out its identity, and they don’t have much time before they must find out how they’ll run things in 2015.

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Under new head coach Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are expected to run the ball more often than they ever have with Peyton at the helm, as Ronnie Hillman is having his best preseason ever. C.J. Anderson has to be the feature back after dominating in all facets last season, and one of the Broncos signature plays of the season came in their playoff loss against the Indianapolis Colts in which Anderson just wouldn’t give up.

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Even though it came in a loss, it was one of the most enduring moments of the Broncos 2014-15 season, because it was a microcosm of how they played down the stretch of the regular season. With Manning playing through a serious injury, the Broncos passing attack clearly wasn’t itself, so they entire offense was being carried by someone who turned into a stud, three-down running back after being a relative unknown prior to injuries to Montee Ball and Hillman.

That run and that stretch of the season in which Manning had six interceptions and just three touchdowns in the final four games has fantasy owners concerned. Manning’s ADP is currently third among all quarterbacks, meaning that he’s ahead of Russell Wilson and behind only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, so most people have plenty of faith in his ability to continue to post huge numbers.

The problem is this, what if he collapses again near the end of the 2015 season? For as much as we’d like to believe that Manning’s poor performances in his final five games (including the playoff game against Indy) were solely due to injury, there’s this lingering worry in the back of my mind that his advanced age (he’s now 39) makes him less able to hold up throughout an entire season.

Adding Evan Mathis at left guard was one of the most important moves of the offseason that a contender made, and I’m perfectly fine with being called out for hyperbole here. Not only does Mathis improve Manning’s pass protection up the middle, but he also allows the Broncos to do a better job of bringing in some ground-and-pound action to defenses. Anderson forced an absurd amount of missed tackles last season with 44 (the seventh-most in the NFL) on 179 carries, according to Pro Football Focus.

No quarterback in the entire league makes his offensive tackles look better than Manning, because his feel for the pocket and quick release can be unstoppable. He can’t move around and physically seems to be one huge hit away from the injury report, but it’s just so hard to bring down a guy who took just 2.24 seconds to throw the ball, per PFF. Andy Dalton and Tom Brady had the next-lowest times at 2.39 seconds, so Manning was clearly in front of the competition.

Although Manning’s fantasy upside is capped by the Denver Broncos likely more run-centric approach in 2015, we all know that big numbers are expected with Peyton. He has one of the NFL’s most consistent receivers over the past three years on his side in Demaryius Thomas, who is easily one of the most explosive wideouts around. In fact, no receiver had more 100-yard receiving games than Thomas last season, as he had ten.

Aug 22, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) throws in the pocket against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

And then there’s Emmanuel Sanders, who is one of the most fluid wide receivers in the league and is quickly emerging as a potential top-ten player at the position. If Cody Latimer can shake off the mistakes he’s made in each of his first two offseason and let his athletic tools shine through, then the Broncos will have the NFL’s scariest wide receiver trio, and it might not even be close.

Even if Latimer doesn’t have the desired rookie impact, Manning has some solid safety valves after his dynamic wide receiver duo. Virgil Green, Owen Daniels, Anderson, and Hillman are all valuable targets who can bring something extra to the offense, and we all know how good Manning is at spreading the wealth and taking advantage of different pass-catchers.

Aug 17, 2014; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Cody Latimer (14) catches a pass before the start of the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi

What I don’t understand, however, is why Manning is ahead of Wilson in ADP. Yes, Manning is in the more explosive offense and is the better quarterback, but Wilson has the legs and the youth. More importantly, he outscored Manning last year by five points. Without Golden Tate. Without Jimmy Graham. With Doug Baldwin as his only fantasy-relevant WR or TE.

Peyton Manning’s 597 pass attempts last season were eight in the league, and he was fantasy football’s fourth-highest scoring quarterback. With 39 touchdowns (the second-most in the NFL) and 7.9 yards per attempt, Manning will make the most out of his opportunities for your fantasy team, but he’s no longer 100% reliable after last season’s debacle in the final four games. Those are the most critical games for fantasy owners, too, so I would think twice before taking him over Wilson, especially since his pass attempts are set to decline.

That said, even though Manning’s offensive tackle situation is not ideal, he’s such a great quarterback that it’s hard to bet against him. He’s a sure-fire top-five fantasy QB, and the only two QBs who can threaten him for the fourth overall spot are Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees.

But with Graham gone and a more run-heavy offense in N.O., Brees isn’t as attractive of a play as Peyton. As for Roethlisberger, he could prove to be the better option if the Pittsburgh Steelers pass the ball enough, but that’s driving a hard bargain with Martavis Bryant suspended for four games and Le’Veon Bell out for just two with his suspension.

If you think he’s a better option than Wilson in fantasy leagues this year, then I won’t fight you on that; his track record is up for the whole world to see. But if you think Wilson is the better option because of his legs and improved pass-catching situation (in addition to the fact that he out-scored Manning last year), then go with him. Working in Manning’s favor is the injury explanation, because he’d have easily out-scored Wilson last year without the slip-ups in the final games.

As far as I’m concerned, he’s exactly a fair value at an ADP of third among quarterbacks, but since he can’t feel his fingers, I wouldn’t bet on anything more than a third-place finish right now.

Next: Is Manning The NFL's Most Important Player?

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