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New England Patriots: Tom Brady Week 1 Outlook

By Kevin Parvizi

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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is on track to play a full 16-game season after U.S. District Judge Richard Berman decided to nullify the NFL’s four-game suspension levied against the star QB. Even though the NFL will appeal this decision against the better judgement of other league owners, per a report from Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole, Roger Goodell is not seeking a stay of Berman’s ruling, per the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin and the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. As Rapoport notes, Brady is pretty much going to play this season, since the appeal process won’t exactly be quick.

ALSO ON SPIN ZONE: Where Does Brady Rank Among NFL’s Best QBs?

Regardless of how long the appeal process takes, Berman’s ruling ensures that Brady will play in the regular season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fantasy owners who were able to pluck Brady at a discount are undoubtedly rejoicing right now, because he is set to go off against the Steelers.

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Trading for Brandon Boykin will prove to be by far the most vital move for the Steelers this offseason, and there’s no doubt that the Steelers got a discount price out of the Philadelphia Eagles for a player who was one of the best CBs in the NFL in 2013. Boykin is a massive upgrade for the Steelers, but, sadly, he and William Gay are the only pieces in the secondary that this team can rely on.

In 2014, the Steelers surrendered 30 touchdown passes with just 11 interceptions to their credit, and with 7.0 net yards per attempt allowed, they fielded what was easily one of the NFL’s worst pass defending units. Even with Brandon LaFell poised to hit the reserve/PUP with a foot injury of unknown severity, that lack of success just won’t fly against Brady and the Patriots offense.

Even though I’m not a believer in Reggie Wayne either, there’s a chance the 36-year-old veteran can find his pre-injury form. Although that seems slim at this point, Wayne was productive in 2013 before completely bottoming out last season with drops aplenty and seemingly no juice in his legs.

But the thing is, even if Wayne doesn’t make any sort of a Week 1 impact, the Patriots have other options worth throwing it to. Top receiver Julian Edelman will be healthy, Rob Gronkowski will do Gronk things, Danny Amendola has proven that he has the talent to make an impact when healthy (some of the routes he runs are ridiculous), Scott Chandler is a red zone threat, pass-catching backs Travaris Cadet and Dion Lewis have flashed explosiveness this offseason, and young receivers Jalen Saunders and Chris Harper are worth bearing in mind.

According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers were the worst team in the NFL against wide receivers who were third or lower on the depth chart, 28th against tight ends, and 22nd against running backs. This is troubling for the Steelers, because that palette of pass-catchers accurately paints a picture of the types of players Brady will be throwing it to in Week 1. He’ll be using tight ends frequently, he’ll spread the ball around to other receivers, and the running backs also figure to get involved in the passing game.

While Brady’s situation is slightly less than ideal with LaFell likely out, an offensive explosion could be on if the team’s starting “X” receiver plays. Brady is pissed after what happened this offseason, but he’s also pumped at defeating the NFL in the legal battle and is ready to show off his prowess to the rest of the league right off the bat.

Of course, I don’t really like to use that logic when projecting a player’s chances of success, especially when you consider the fact that Brady is the type of guy who is 100% motivated under every circumstance.

Last season, Tom Brady averaged 256.8 passing yards per game, which was the lowest average he put up since the 2010 season (also the year he had 36 touchdowns and just four picks). Even if LaFell doesn’t play, he should be able to surpass that average against the Steelers. He was at his best last season when facing contenders, and a shootout with Ben Roethlisberger, who will be playing short-handed without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, could spur him on to some big numbers in Week 1.

Here were Brady’s stats against playoff contenders last season after the Week 4 game against the Kansas City Chiefs:

Week 5 Cincinnati Bengals: 292 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Week 9 Denver Broncos: 333 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT

Week 11 Indianapolis Colts: 257, 2 TD, 2 INT (8.3 Y/A)

Week 12 Detroit Lions: 349 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Week 13 Green Bay Packers: 245 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT

Week 14 San Diego Chargers: 317 yards, 2 TDs. 1 INT

Week 15 Miami Dolphins: 287 yards, 2 TDs, INT

He went under 250 passing yards just once, never had less than two touchdowns, and threw more than one interception just once. Since the New England Patriots will miss starting running back LeGarrette Blount, expect a heavy diet of Brady against the Steelers weak pass defense. Jonas Gray has the skill-set and, possibly, the ability to make a splash in Week 1, but Brady is locked in as a top-five fantasy QB for the opening week and could be as high as the third-best (behind Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, who gets the Philadelphia Eagles right off the bat with Roddy White not injured…yet).

Next: What Have Been The Best Games Of Tom Brady's Career?

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