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Jacksonville Jaguars: Can Allen Robinson have a big Week 1?

By Kevin Parvizi

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Despite receiving a breakout 2014 season from cornerback Josh Norman, the Carolina Panthers were one of the worst teams in the league at covering opposing No. 1 receivers, as per Football Outsider’s DVOA. With Julius Thomas out for a few weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars are hoping that “X” receiver Allen Robinson can quickly make good on his breakout expectations to start the season, and that includes their Week 1 battle against the Panthers.

ALSO ON SPIN ZONE: Where Does A-Rob Rank Among NFL’s Best WRs?

Whereas the Panthers are looking to overcome Kelvin Benjamin‘s season-ending injury and win the NFC South for a third straight season, the Jaguars are simply trying to reach five or six wins. Defeating the Panthers at EverBank Field next Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET would be a huge statement to start the season, and the Jags will need their skill position players around Blake Bortles to be a part of that statement.

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Few receivers are entering the 2015 season with as much hype as Robinson, who would have caught 77 passes last season if he didn’t miss six games with a season-ending injury. It’s been about ten years since the Jaguars last had a 1,000-yard receiver, and Robinson gives them their first real shot at breaking this streak.

In Norman and veteran Charles Tillman, the Panthers appear to have a capable starting duo of cornerbacks, and safeties Tre Boston, Kurt Coleman, and Roman Harper form a competent trio at worst. Coleman has suddenly become an interesting player after impressing down the stretch for the Kansas City Chiefs last year, and there’s a chance he could start over Tre Boston at free safety, though Boston did play well as a rookie in 2014.

That said, the Panthers secondary’s only two standouts are young corners Norman and Bene Benwikere, and the former CB is the one who could give Robinson the most trouble next Sunday. After being a whipping boy early in his career, Norman showed up well in coverage last season and qualifies as a fourth-year player on the rise after defending 11 passes last season.

Norman is currently dealing with a concussion, but he’s fully expected to play against the Jaguars, barring anything unexpected. But outside of Norman, Robinson has a favorable matchup on tap, and he’s become an especially good option for fantasy owners with Thomas out of the picture.

Marqise Lee‘s injury issues and slow offseason make it seem like only Robinson and Allen Hurns will play big roles in the passing game with Thomas injured, and it’s clear to me that Robinson is the better of those two receivers. His body control, excellent work after the catch, hands, incredible athleticism, and strength at the catch point make him a candidate for a 7-90-1 line (or thereabouts) in Week 1 against the Panthers.

Most fantasy experts have Robinson finishing as the 27th-highest scoring wide receiver in Week 1, and it’s worth noting that wide receivers had a 65.6% catch rate when facing the Panthers defense last season, according to Pro-Football Reference. Just three teams surrendered more receptions to wide receivers last season, so that’s something to keep in mind when projecting Robinson’s numbers.

Although he has impressive physical tools, Robinson’s main impact on the Jacksonville Jaguars offense in 2015 will be as a possession receiver for Bortles who can make big plays in the red zone and add extra yards with the ball in his hands. Thomas’s injury only increases Robinson’s importance as a chain-mover, and it will be interesting to see how early and often Bortles targets A-Rob in key situations next week, particularly on third downs.

Based on what we saw in both of their rookie seasons and what we’ve heard throughout the offseason, both players have trust in each other. Robinson’s turned in a sensational offseason as a whole, capped off by a 64-yard performance against the New York Giants CBs, and we have every reason to believe that he can carry that momentum into Week 1.

The Panthers secondary looks noticeably improved on paper, and young players like Boston, Benwikere, and Norman will only be better this upcoming season. Still, the Panthers don’t have a corner capable of stopping Allen Robinson one-on-one, so if Hurns and/or the running game can do enough to relieve pressure off of him, he could have an eventful afternoon.

I will be surprised if Bortles doesn’t throw the ball in Robinson’s direction at least ten times on Sunday, simply because the former Penn State star is his best option by a significant margin. With all due respect to Hurns, who is locked in as the No. 2 option, Robinson is the player on the Jaguars offense who is the most trustworthy. I don’t think he’ll blow up for a huge game in the yardage department, but he should pile on the receptions and seems like a solid bet to find the end zone.

Next: Who Is The Jaguars Biggest X-Factor for 2015?

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