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Fantasy Football: Tom Brady a Week 1 Must Start

By Dan Schmelzer

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The majority of drafts are over, and it is almost time for fantasy football to begin. With the first week of match-ups happening this week, it is undoubtedly time to start looking at who is going to start for your squad, and who you are going to sit. Despite all of the controversy surrounding him this off season, Tom Brady is a Week 1 must start.

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The New England Patriots will begin to defend their Super Bowl crown on Thursday night, when they open the 2015 NFL regular season in a match-up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although it did not look like he would for a while, Brady will lace up his spikes and be under center for the Patriots in their Week 1 game.

I strongly believe that the Patriots are planning a high-volume passing attack for the Steelers. The biggest reason I believe that is looking who they kept on the 53-man roster at the running back position. The current Patriots’ backs listed on the roster for Week 1 are Dion Lewis, James White, Travaris Cadet and Brandon Bolden.

Aug 28, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis (33) tries to elude Carolina Panthers cornerback Melvin White (23) during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. New England wins 17-16 over the Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Missing from the list are LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray, who were supposed to be the two power backs for the Patriots this season. Blount will return in Week 2 after he serves his one week suspension, and Gray was among the Patriots’ final cuts of the preseason.

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The other backs on the roster are all strong receivers out of the backfield. Lewis was impressive throughout the preseason, and seems to be the guy who will take over Shane Vereen‘s third down back role. White has an extremely similar skill-set to Vereen, and I also expect to see him on some passing downs. Cadet may not play because of injury, but he is more of a receiving back as well. Bolden is more balanced than the others, but the Patriots have always seemed to use him in the passing game more than the running game.

They are all NFL running backs who can run the ball, but the Patriots’ Week 1 backs are all clearly better suited for the passing game. When Blount returns in Week 2, I expect the Patriots to get back to featuring the run at times. However, against the Steelers I think they are ready to put the game squarely on Brady’s shoulders, and their decisions at running back reflect that.

Based on the numbers from last season, this would be a wise decision. With an anemic pass rush, and a less than impressive secondary, the Steelers struggled mightily against the pass last season. Their 253.1 passing yards allowed per game was the sixth highest total in the NFL.

The Steelers also allowed the sixth highest points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season with 18.5, according to Fantasy Pros. Obviously the point total will differ from site to site, but Fantasy Pros takes an overall average from the major site’s standard scoring.

No matter how you look at it, the Steelers were a fantasy friendly defense to quarterbacks last season, and with a lot of the same faces coming back, I expect more of the same this year.

The Patriots are dealing with some injuries in the receiving core. Brandon LaFell will miss the first half of the season, and Julian Edelman will be a question mark leading up to the game. That being said, I expect Edelman to play, Danny Amendola seems ready to take on an expanded role and of course Brady and the Patriots have the biggest match-up nightmare in the game with Rob Gronkowski.

Sep 7, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) and quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrate after a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in the first half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

This is not Brady’s most impressive array of weapons, but we have seen him dominate with much less. I expect them to be just fine.

If you drafted Brady before his suspension was eliminated, it is certainly possible for you to have another viable Week 1 option. That being said, Brady is your guy. The Patriots are going to pass a lot in this game, and the Steelers defense is not going to put up much of a fight. Not to mention the Patriots undoubtedly looking to put on a show after a forgettable off season.

Start Tom Brady with absolute confidence this week.

Next: Patriots are New America's Team

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