What is up with Jeremy Hill?

By Kevin Parvizi | Sep 28, 2015

As a rookie Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill was simply sensational, and he looked like a fixture as the team’s second-most important offensive player behind A.J. Green (or maybe third, depending on where you put Andrew Whitworth). Whatever the case, Hill’s rookie rampage over defenses was remarkable to watch, as he looked like one of the NFL’s most powerful backs with more than enough explosiveness in his legs to boot. Hill averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his first season with nine touchdowns, and few backs were as impressive as he was in the 2014 season.

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Suddenly, Hill has become unreliable for the Bengals after looking like an immediate superstar in 2014, and he’s had a nightmarish start to the 2015 season. He managed to score two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Oakland Raiders, but Hill has fallen badly in the past two weeks. First, he was benched for fumbling twice against the San Diego Chargers after only managing a weak 3.9 yards per carry against one of the league’s most vulnerable defenses. Giovani Bernard had no issues trampling the Chargers with 123 yards on the ground, and he took full advantage of Hill’s benching.

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Coming into yesterday’s game against the rival Baltimore Ravens, Hill was, as offensive coordinator Hue Jackson told the NFL Network’s Aditi Kinkhabwala, expected to be the workhorse. Instead, Hill was out-touched 16-12 by Bernard, and he averaged less yards per carry (3.8 vs. 1.8) than the former UNC standout.

It’s been a tough two weeks for Hill, and it’s left the rest of us wondering if he’s primed for a sophomore slump. Bernard has been on the field substantially more often than Hill has in each of the past two games, and he’s averaging more yards per carry on the season (5.7 vs. 3.0) than the former LSU star.

Hill hasn’t looked nearly as powerful out there this season, and aside from a quality performance against the Raiders, he’s been wholly ineffective. The most logical explanation for his struggles are that he’s dealing with a fluky stretch of poor play, and his 1.8 yards per carry against the Ravens can be explained by facing an elite run defense that includes the elite Brandon Williams controlling the line of scrimmage.

What’s harder to ignore is the fact that Hill struggled with efficiency against the Chargers even before the fumbling, as well as the fact that Bernard is simply outplaying him at this stage. The Bengals threw the ball often against Baltimore and thus unsurprisingly played their pass-catching specialist more often, but that doesn’t shed light on the fact that both players have equal rushing attempts (41) with Bernard producing 112 more rushing yards (235 vs. 123).

Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones have propelled Andy Dalton– the owner of a 121.0 QB Rating- to an unsurprising bounce-back season through three weeks, but we all know how important the Bengals running game is to this offense. Hill was their staple down the stretch of the 2014 regular season, and the Bengals are still running the ball heavily with the second-most rushing attempts in the NFL right now.

But they are only averaging 4.0 yards per carry and using Jeremy Hill and Bernard in an even time-share, which further cuts into Hill’s fantasy value. Most people concerned with the Bengals rushing situation are fantasy owners, largely because Bernard has been effective and because the Bengals are winning despite Hill’s struggles.

Yet it’s not optimal for the Bengals to see their rookie star struggle like this, even if it’s for only two games. Bernard is definitely a talented back who can make defenders miss with ease, but this is the same guy who averaged just 4.0 yards per carry last season. He’s not a lead back, and while he is succeeding in a 50-50 split with Hill at 5.7 YPC, the other 50% of the tandem is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry.

It’s hard to see Jackson and the Bengals suddenly giving up on Hill as their lead back, and it’s hard to see this slump lasting. I’ll take almost a full season of beastly play over two bad weeks, but it is fair for people other than Hill’s fantasy owners to be a little bit worried about their second-year workhorse.

The Bengals will face the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, and Buffalo Bills over the next three weeks, which means that Dalton will finally have to face top pass defenses. He’ll need Hill and the running game in those games more than he did against the Oakland Raiders, Chargers, and Ravens, so we’ll see what Week 4 holds for the Bengals uncertain rushing attack.

Next: Was Hill's Rookie Season One Of The Best Ever?

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