New York Jets will live or die with a basic NFL formula

There is an old saying in baseball that pitching and defense wins championships. “Good pitching beats good hitting” is something that has been repeated through the annals of baseball history, and more often than not, it is the truth.

There is another basic formula that has stood the test of time. No matter how much the NFL has changed through the years, this has been the case, and the New York Jets will win, or lose, by its principles.

Win the turnover battle and the battle at the line of scrimmage and you will win a lot of games. Simple, right? It will be the storyline for the New York Jets for all of 2015.

Let’s look at the results so far in 2015:

Sep 21, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) can not come up with an interception against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. New York Jets defeat the Indianapolis Colts 20-7. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

So far on the young season, the Jets own a +5 turnover differential. They have also kept their quarterback cleaner, leading the sack total 4-2 over their first three opponents. The Jets have also averaged 3.8 yards per carry on the ground, compared to their opponents’ 3.5 yards per carry average. The result is a 2-1 record.

When you take a look at the individual game stats, the principle mentioned earlier becomes crystal clear.

In Week 1, the Jets won the turnover battle over the Cleveland Browns, 5-1. They out-rushed the Browns 154-104, averaged 4.3 yards per carry on the ground, and didn’t allow one sack. The result was a 31-10 home victory.

In Week 2, the Jets again won the turnover battle 5-1, this time over the Indianapolis Colts. They out-rushed the Colts, albeit by a slim margin, 101-93 yards. They only allowed one sack, and although the Colts averaged a bit more on the ground than the Jets (3.9 vs. 3.7), Todd Bowles’ team prevailed, 20-7.

Sep 27, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) is tackled by Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Brandon Bair (93) during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

In Week 3, we saw the other side of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw three interceptions. The Jets lost the turnover battle to the Philadelphia Eagles 4-1. They were outrushed by Ryan Mathews and company by over 75 yards, 123-47. The Jets averaged a whopping 2.9 yards against the Eagles.

The result for the New York Jets was a 24-17 loss in a game that was not as close as the score indicates.

To summarize, in two out of three games, the Jets won the turnover battle, and won the battle at the line of scrimmage. The result is a 2-1 record as the team heads out to London to face the Miami Dolphins.

Ryan Fitzpatrick made it clear against the Eagles that he is not a guy that can lead this team from behind. The Jets need to follow the formula.

It’s a simple one, and has been one that has stayed true through the years. If the Jets don’t follow it, 2015 will turn into a long season.

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