Adrian Peterson: Can he reach 2500 yards in 2015?

Adrian Peterson has just 372 yards through four games so far in 2015.

I say “just” but in reality that mark is good for the most yards on the ground in the NFL. He’s averaging five yards per carry and continues to gash defenses after really getting going in Week 2.

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So why am I semi-disappointed with 372 yards in four games so far?

Well, it isn’t just me. Adrian Peterson should be disappointed in himself as well.

Peterson made big news by talking about his goal for 2500 yards in the 2015 season. He said he always keeps his mark at 2500 and getting close isn’t bad.

At his current pace, getting close is downright unrealistic.

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Peterson’s five yards per rush could theoretically get him to the magical 2500 yards, but if he continues on his meager 19 attempts per game average, it would take him just over 26 games to get to 2500 yards. Right now, it’s looking like 1500 is a much more realistic goal for Peterson in 2015 than 2500.

He isn’t exactly getting the heavy workload head coach Mike Zimmer said he would during the offseason.

That isn’t to say it is impossible for the gifted runner to get up there.

When he ran for 2097 yards in 2012, Peterson was averaging just one more yard per carry (six) and was putting up an impressive 131 yards per game. The big difference was that he was also getting nearly 22 carries per game during that season. Three carries per game may not seem like a lot, but when any one of those could be broken for a big gain they all really start to add up.

But fret not, Minnesota Vikings fans. We can continue to turn to that 2012 season for hope.

Through four games in 2012, Adrian Peterson was just 10th in the NFL with 332 yards on the ground. He was averaging 4.2 yards per attempt and he was getting just under 20 carries per game on average.

Oct 4, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (94) leg tackles Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) in the fourth quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Vikings 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Peterson’s final 12 games saw a massive jump up to 6.6 yards per carry and over 22 carries per game. He was able to put up big rushes consistently to raise his average and those couple of extra rushes really helped push him closer and closer to the record.

There is still plenty of football left in the season for Peterson to turn it around and start on his way to 2000+ yards. If anyone can do it, it is him.

If Peterson can kick his average back up near 6.6 yards per carry and he gets a couple more opportunities per game, he could put another 1700 yards on in the season. That would be enough to get him above 2000 yards for the second time in his career.

That’s still a ways away from 2500, but Peterson considers it good to get close to 2500 yards and in the history of the NFL not many people get closer than a 2000 yard season.

As Neil Greenburg of the Washington Post put it back in July, “No, Adrian Peterson will not rush for 2500 yards this season….To take it a step further, the highest per game rushing average of any running back 30 or older to start all 16 games in a season is 116.3 by Barber in 2005.”

Maybe 2500 is too much to ask, but going after Eric Dickerson’s 1105 yard record certainly should still be in the conversation after a quarter of the season has come and gone. True, Adrian Peterson needs to up his game to get there, but it’s definitely not impossible.

A 30-year old back shouldn’t be capable of doing everything that Peterson can do, but here we have a 30-year old back leading the NFL and continuing to look like a much younger version of himself as he carries the load for the Vikings. There’s still that flash of brilliance when he takes the ball and the potential for something miraculous, however slim, continues to hang in the air.

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