Cincinnati Bengals: Why Andy Dalton is a legit MVP candidate

Oct 11, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback

Andy Dalton

(14) celebrates after his team defeated the Seattle Seahawks at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati defeated Seattle 27-24. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

There are currently six teams in the NFL that are unbeaten. The somewhat-expected ones are the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers, but the next three are surprises.

The Atlanta Falcons are 5-0 following a year in which they only won a total of six games. The Carolina Panthers made the playoffs last season, but only finished 7-8-1. Then there is the Cincinnati Bengals, who have been a pretty good regular season team since Andy Dalton took the helm, but cannot find a way to be successful once playoff time comes around.

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Coming off of an improbable comeback win against the Seattle Seahawks in which the Bengals were down by seventeen points in the fourth quarter, the Bengals look to have joined the elite group of NFL teams. Although the defense played pretty well throughout the day, there is one guy that the city of Cincinnati should be thanking: Andy Dalton. Dalton finished the day completing 30-of-44 passes for 331 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

After finishing a phenomenal opening drive that consisted of seven plays for eighty-six yards, capped off with a touchdown to Tyler Eifert, the Bengals offense sputtered until the final quarter. Down 24-7, Dalton led the Bengals on three scoring drives in the 4th quarter, with none better than the final two minute, seven play drive that led to a game-tying field goal with no time remaining. Overtime was a bit of a struggle for both offenses, but Dalton came through clutch again leading the team down the field to kick the game-winning field goal improving the Bengals record to 5-0. As noted in my previous article, the Bengals offensive weapons proved too much for Seattle.

After this week’s win Dalton leads the league in passing, tied for third with Tom Brady for passing touchdowns, and third in rating. He is completing just under 68 percent of his passes this season, which is good for eleventh in the league. What is amazing about that, is that Dalton is second in the league among quarterbacks (first being Ben Roethlisberger) averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. This would be good enough for eighth all-time in a single season. Let’s compare Dalton’s statistics to players who I believe are legit MVP candidates.

Andy Dalton

108-160, 67.5%, 1,518 yards, 9.49 yards/attempt, 11 TD, 2 INT, 115.6 rating, 83.7 total QBR

Tom Brady

116-160, 72.5%, 1,387 yards, 8.67 yards/attempt, 11 TD, 0 INT, 121.5 rating, 71.8 total QBR

Aaron Rodgers

108-153, 70.6%, 1,236 yards, 8.08 yards/attempt, 13 TD, 2 INT, 117.4 rating, 81.6 total QBR

Carson Palmer

96-148, 64.9%, 1,316 yards, 8.89 yards/attempt, 13 TD, 3 INT, 114 rating, 82.7 total QBR

After taking a closer look at these quarterback’s statistics, it’s easy to see that Dalton has been elite to start the 2015 season. The one statistic that stands out to me is Dalton leading in total QBR. Via ESPN, “The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of different throws and what they mean for wins.” In the past, the Bengals have leaned on their running backs to produce and Dalton was only needed to manage the game. What has hindered his success throughout his career is that Dalton continuously made silly mistakes. In a league where turnovers could ultimately define a game, he has been able to take care of the ball this season.

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Another impressive statistic is that the Bengals have played five quality teams to start the season. Coming into 2015, the Bengals were second in the league in terms of strength of schedule with opponents 2014 win percentages of .563. While the Raiders are not a great team, they are young and full of talent. For the Kansas City Chiefs, nobody expected them to be 1-4, but when you play back-to-back-to-back games against three 5-0 teams, it’s tough pile up wins. Then you have three wins over 2014 playoff teams in which Andy Dalton has dominated the opposing defenses in all three games.

Aaron Rodgers won the 2014 NFL MVP award with a stat line of 341-of-520 (65.6 completion percentage) 4,381 yards, 38 TD passes, 5 INT, 112.2 rating and a 77.4 total QBR. Rodgers also led his team to 12-4 record. If Dalton continued at this current pace, he would accrue a stat line of 345-512, 67.4%, 4857 yards, 35 TD, 6 INT, with the same rating and total QBR.

While it would be unfair to expect Dalton to continue playing this well, it’s safe to say that if he comes close to those projected numbers, he’ll be in the discussion for MVP.

Regardless of what happens during the regular season, if Andy Dalton wants to receive that ‘elite’ label, he will have to play this way come playoff time. I believe that not only have the Bengals turned the corner into the leagues best, but Andy Dalton has too.

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