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Will the Chicago Bears really trade Matt Forte?

By James Cobern

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It would be so hard to say goodbye to Matt Forte, but he might be on the trading block for the Chicago Bears. This is a team with new management, a new head coach and a general sense that they are not where they want to be as a NFL roster.

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The recent trades according to Larry Mayer of the chicagobears.com saw Ryan Pace ship Jonathan Bostic to the New England Patriots and Jared Allen to the Carolina Panthers and proves an interest to get younger and improve the roster long-term. But to trade Matt Forte is a different animal entirely.

This isn’t some broken down has been pass rusher, or inconsistent linebacker. Forte has been the rock of Chicago’s offense for almost eight seasons.

He was also the teams highest jersey seller in 2014 according to Evan Massey of fansided.com. So he’s kind of a big deal in Chicago land, but his production speaks louder than his jersey sells.

Based on ten years’ worth of NFL market share data, Forte has produced in the 90 or top 10 percentile of total market share yardage every single season he’s been a Chicago Bear. And his effectiveness as a rusher and pass catcher made him Le’Veon Bell before Bell was even a thing.

All of this information points to Forte still, even at 29 years old being an elite running back without much of a sign that he’s slowing down. And while many will point to Forte’s age as a concern since running backs have a perceived self-life of only a few years after age 30.

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Forte hasn’t had a season yet where he was rode into the ground. He hasn’t pushed for a 2,000 yard season, or had a major knee injury.

And Forte’s style of play isn’t exactly prone to violent collisions or burning chariots in his wake. So trading Forte may be a premature move.

But if you still insist on being more safe than sorry on the potential that Forte breaks down very soon in the future. You will want fair compensation.

The only problem is what is an elite running back worth in today’s market place? A first-round pick for an older back seems a little slanted to one side.

A second-rounder is where running back value is at its highest in finding a new one. That’s why I doubt a trade for Forte will happen without the compensation being right.

And who wants to pay a second-rounder for a player who isn’t signed through 2015? A team willing to meet the compensation for Forte would have to be desperate.

A GM and coaching staff on its last rope that view an elite running back as the saving grace. And it would take an organization with the cap space to eat Forte’s cap hit, which was back loaded to this year according to information from Sportrac.com.

All trade scenarios involving Matt Forte would be extremely unlikely before the October 28th deadline this year that is only about two weeks away. So the real question the Chicago Bears should be thinking about is whether to re-sign Forte after the 2015 season, or are we ready for life after Forte?

The Bears have tried to make moves bringing in other running back talents to one day usurp Forte like Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford and Arizona’s Ka’Deem Carey, but to think Langford, Carey or even dark horse candidate Senorise Perry are going to step in and continue the level of play Forte shows is delusional.

And just specifically with Perry and Langford who fall into the similar height range of Forte as 5-11 or taller. Neither Perry nor Langford have the same athletic ability Forte demonstrated coming out of Tulane that helped make him into one of the best running backs in the NFL due to his elite dynamic speed (fluidity of his speed) and his elite market share at Tulane as well.

Perry and Langford went through my college filters as potential backups or change of pace backs with a rare chance of developing into a back of Forte’s caliber. While Carey had good workhorse numbers coming out of Arizona, but his athletic ability is more akin to a reserve than long-term starter.

The point is a trade that actually compensates you for the type of talent Forte has proven to be will take a desperate team. And in the process you will end up needing to roll the dice in the draft once again due to Langford, Perry and Carey being very likely to underperform in a lead back role based on their athletic ability, and what they displayed in college.

You will become a less talented team. And as much as the Chicago Bears aren’t exactly dominating the NFC North this year, you don’t want to continue the trend by letting go of one of your best assets on your team.

I personally would give Forte a 2-3 year extension to hopefully finish out his career in Chicago due to his signs of not slowing down, but I want to hear what you think in the comments below.

Should the Bears trade one of their best offensive players before the October 28th deadline? And what compensation would you view as fair for one of the best running backs in the NFL today?

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