Indianapolis Colts: Donte Moncrief the X-Factor tonight

The Indianapolis Colts haven’t been able to form an appropriate response to the New England Patriots, so every game against New England has become a “revenge” game for the AFC South’s top team. On Sunday Night Football, the Colts will have an uphill battle when it comes to dethroning the Pats, as they look like the NFL’s best team.

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Part of that battle is having Andrew Luck out there, because the star QB has missed back-to-back weeks with a shoulder injury. Despite being listed as questionable on the injury report, most people fully expect him to be out there for tonight’s all-important contest, and the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport confirmed this morning that Luck will play, adding that the former Stanford star could have even played last week against the Houston Texans.

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But the Colts wanted to give him sufficient rest for this huge Week 6 encounter, and all eyes are on Luck, who must bounce-back. Before he missed the last two weeks, the man struggled to a 5:7 TD:INT ratio, making uncharacteristic mistakes with an even more uncharacteristic 6.5 yards per attempt. Luck was woefully ineffective, inaccurate, and boasts an awful 65.1 QB Rating, which has caused the Colts supposedly elite offense to come in just 24th in scoring.

On the bright side, Luck should be refreshed after receiving some time off, because I wonder if that shoulder injury affected him earlier in the year. Whatever the case, the more important positive is the fact that he’ll face a pass defense that could be taken advantage of.

The Patriots have the NFL’s seventh-best scoring defense and have picked off six passes, compared to just six touchdowns allowed. Teams are averaging just 5.9 net yards per pass attempt against them, but there’s reason to believe that the Patriots secondary could regress. Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon form one of the best safety partnerships in the business, but the cornerback position looks week, especially now that veteran Tarell Brown is out for the year. Malcolm Butler has played well so far this year, but the Patriots pass defense looked vulnerable the last time they faced a top QB in Ben Roethlisberger.

Luck isn’t playing nearly as well as Roethlisberger was, and Antonio Brown won’t be lining up across from Butler this week. However, Colts wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief form one of the more talented starting duos in the business, and it’s become abundantly clear that Moncrief has left veteran Andre Johnson and first-round rookie Phillip Dorsett in the dust on the target totem pole.

In fact, Moncrief leads the Colts with three touchdowns and is second on the team with 24 targets and 38 receptions. The former Ole Miss star averages 55.6 receiving yards per game with a 63.2% catch rate that is well above Luck’s 56.0% completion percentage. In all honesty, he and Hilton have been carrying this passing attack, and they will continue to be critical components of this offense’s success.

Last year in the AFC Championship Game, we saw McCourty and the Patriots shut down Hilton in what was a perfectly executed gameplan by Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia. It seems like the Pats always find a way to take Hilton out of the game, and they are the best coaching staff in the business at negated an opposition’s best player, specifically when they are No. 1 wide receivers.

The Patriots have been, per metrics on Football Outsiders, been comparatively better at defending No. 1 receivers than No. 2 receivers this season, and Brown’s season-ending injury further curtails their ability to defend opposing No. 2 wideouts, particularly those lined up on the outside.

Oct 8, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Indianapolis Colts receiver Donte Moncrief (10) signals for a first down after a reception during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

That’s where Moncrief, who is a 6’2″, 222-pound explosive beast, makes his game, and he has the size and physical tools to be the Colts big X-Factor tonight.

Moncrief didn’t make any sort of an impact against Houston, but he did have six catches for 75 yards in the previous week against the Jacksonville Jaguars with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm.

Based on what we’ve seen this season, Moncrief has been at his best with Luck under center, as he channeled his inner Eric Decker by catching a TD pass in every single game he played with Luck at QB.

This shows that the Colts need to get Moncrief involved often against New England, because he has the most favorable matchup on paper and has arguably been the Colts second-best player on offense behind Hilton.

Moncrief, Hilton, and Frank Gore are keys to victory this week, and the Colts need to use all the firepower they can on offense in order to try and out-score a Pats O that just might be the best in the NFL even without Brandon LaFell back yet.

So watch out for Moncrief tonight, because he’s put together strong numbers so far this season and has a great rapport with Luck, who clearly trusts his second-year wideout.

We all know just how huge Moncrief’s upside is as a mere 22-year-old with impressive numbers already on the stat sheet, and hopefully a national audience will get to see his tools at work in a game that will give him the opportunity to be a deciding factor. An upset is unlikely, but perhaps Moncrief can be the guy who spearheads a fourth victory on the season for Indy.

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