Baltimore Ravens: Justin Forsett most critical component

Despite the fact that Joe Flacco has an 80.1 QB Rating with a meager 6.5 yards per attempt and just one more touchdown pass than interceptions thrown (8-7), the Baltimore Ravens are in the top-half of the table in scoring offense with the 11th-most points per game. Flacco’s lone top target, Steve Smith Sr., has been an absolute monster in the final season of his career with 36 receptions for 510 yards, and Marc Trestman has unsurprisingly turned to running back Justin Forsett to be the team’s second pass-catching option.

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Forsett has caught 23 of the 32 passes thrown at him for a team-high 71.9% catch rate, as he’s been a primary safety valve on an offense that hasn’t presented Flacco with much in the form of reliability. Even though he came into yesterday’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers with a sprained ankle that could have threatened to bounce him out of the action, Forsett still tied Smith with a game-high seven receptions. Those seven catches on eight targets went for just 39 yards, but with a season average of 5.6 yards per reception, his 5.6 YPR against San Francisco was right in line with his normal role in the Ravens passing game.

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With Smith locked in as the top target and tight end Crockett Gillmore being the only other truly notable non-RB in the offense, Forsett looks like the most critical component of the offense at this stage of the season.

He’s been a beast out there, and you can’t fault him for only averaging 3.6 yards per carry yesterday, since he was highly questionable to suit up in the first place. The injury didn’t stop Forsett from going over 100 yards from scrimmage for the third straight game, as the former Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars RB was coming off of back-to-back 150-yard and 121-yard games against AFC North rivals prior to Week 6.

Forsett’s big performances against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns vaulted him on the leaderboards, and he is currently the NFL’s third-leading rusher in terms of yardage behind only Matt Forte and Devonta Freeman. He’s racking up an impressive 76.2 rushing yards per game, and only target-hog Smith Sr. averages more yards from scrimmage on offense.

He’s doing this without the benefit of a stable passing attack, and yet he’s still managed to remain efficient with 4.4 yards per carry to his name. Without Forsett and Smith Sr., the 1-5 Ravens would be in even more dire straits, and they’d probably be winless without Forsett, who blew up for a 27/150 line against Pittsburgh in the team’s lone win of the season.

Next week, the Ravens will have to face the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football, and even though the Cards are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Landry Jones-led Steelers, they are still one of the best teams in the NFL. It’s hard to see them putting in another let-down performance, especially on in primetime in front of their own fans. Although the Cards run defense did a great job holding Le’Veon Bell to under 4.0 yards per carry yesterday, they have allowed 4.1 YPC on the season and could be vulnerable against Forsett.

For the Ravens to win their second game of the season, they will need Forsett to lead the way in both the running and passing game. We know we can count on Smith Sr. to be huge (after all, he’s putting up over 100 receiving yards per game), so the most important thing is hoping that Forsett can churn out yardage.

The only way the Ravens win is if they win ugly (like they did against Mike Vick and the Steelers), and the best way to win these types of close, tooth-and-nail battles is with Forsett. Against a high-flying Cardinals offense that is second in the NFL in net yards per attempt with an elite pass D backing it up, the Ravens will have to take this approach.

Oct 11, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett (29) runs during the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Even after the tough Week 7 battle against Arizona, Forsett will continue to be the tipping factor for the Ravens. Maybe it’s already time to completely stick a fork in the Ravens, but guys like Forsett, Smith, Marshal Yanda, and Flacco will try to keep the hope going for Baltimore.

Whether it’s piling up yardage on the ground with his vision, toughness, and quickness or quietly moving the chains in the passing game, strong performances from Forsett might be the deciding factor for Baltimore wins.

Let’s hope Forsett’s ankle injury isn’t an issue going forward, because the Ravens can ill-afford to lose him for any period of time.

I’ll leave you with two stats from Sporting Charts to illustrate Forsett’s play this season.

1. Chris Ivory is the only running back in the NFL with more runs greater than ten yards this season than Forsett, who has 14 such carries (tied with four others, only Doug Martin has less carries than those he’s tied with).

2. Only Freeman has more total rushing first downs than Forsett, and only three running backs (Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, and Freeman) have a higher percentage of first downs on their carries.

Next: Where does Steve Smith rank among best WRs?

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