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Fantasy Football: Todd Gurley May Have Historic Day Vs. Browns

By Zac Wassink

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Some may see it as clickbait to suggest that Todd Gurley could have a historic fantasy football outing against the Cleveland Browns this coming Sunday. Those critics may be right. Gurley could be even better than historic.

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The defense of the Browns has been a massive letdown throughout the 2015 National Football League regular season. It has thus far been a bigger disappointment than the Cleveland Indians in April, the series finale of Falling Skies and every preseason National Basketball Association contest. As upsetting as it has been for fans of the Browns to watch the team’s defense this fall, it has been downright infuriating that Cleveland has been a sieve versus the run.

The Browns have the worst run defense in the NFL, and not just in name only. Cleveland is allowing a shade under 150 rushing yards per game. The five yards per carry that the Browns are surrendering is good for second-worst in all of the NFL. As Nick Wagoner of ESPN pointed out earlier this week, the sad stats about the run defense of the Browns go on:

"In six games, the Browns have allowed a whopping 23 runs of 10 yards or more (tied for second most in the NFL) and eight carries of 20 or more yards (also tied for second most in the league) for an average of 31.75 yards per carry. All of that for a team that has been run on a league-high 181 times.In other words, the Browns give up a carry of 20 or more yards roughly once every 22 attempts and a rush for 10 or more yards once every eight tries. Take away the 20-plus yard carries and Cleveland is giving up 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground."

The statistical breakdowns, looking back, get only sadder for fans of the Browns. The New York Jets posted 154 rushing yards against the Browns in Week 1. Cleveland was hit for 166 rushing yards by the Tennessee Titans the following Sunday. Latavius Murray of the Oakland Raiders had 139 rushing yards and a score against the Browns. The Denver Broncos weren’t even averaging 72 rushing yards per game entering last weekend’s game at FirstEnergy Stadium. Denver ended that contest with 152 yards on the ground.

What has Gurley, a first-year NFL back, been up to as of late, you ask? In his past two outings, games against the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers, Gurley picked up a total of 305 rushing yards on 49 carries (h/t ESPN). Gurley averaged 6.5 yards per run over that time. The only knock one could have about his game as it pertains to fantasy football is that he has not yet scored a touchdown as a pro.

That trend could end this coming Sunday when the Rams host the Browns.

Gurley, to his credit, did not take the bait when reporters asked him about the current state of the Cleveland defense. He even, per Wagoner, sounded a bit like a veteran:

"“Yeah, those things sound good but the end of the day when Sunday hits and we get on the field, it’s all about executing and not letting that man across from you beat you,” Gurley said. “Those guys could come Sunday and play like the No. 1 defense. I never really look at the rankings.”"

You may be slightly worried about the fact that Gurley has not yet proven to be a weapon in the passing game of the Rams. He has all of three catches in his brief NFL career. Gurley did not post a single reception against the Packers, although that can be forgiven since he ran for 159 yards at Lambeau Field. The rookie has, according to Wagoner, been working on this aspect of his game, in part because: “Cleveland is allowing 11.23 yards per catch to running backs, which ranks second-to-last in the NFL.”

Yikes.

Rookie defensive tackle Danny Shelton was supposed to bolster and improve the Cleveland defense up front. That has not been the case. Shelton has, as explained by Scott Petrak of the Medina-Gazette, been a non-factor more often than not:

"Not only does he have no sacks and no forced fumbles, the team’s terrible run defense has regressed despite his 6-foot-2, 339-pound presence. The Browns were last in the league last year, allowing 141.6 yards per game on the ground. They’ve given up 149.8 this year to again rank last.Shelton was supposed to make a difference. Run defense starts in the middle."

There is little reason, outside of blind hope, to believe that the run defense of the Browns will somehow find life at St. Louis. Gurley and the Rams are coming off of a Bye week, and they will be fresh and ready for action. The game will take place at the Edward Jones Dome, so weather won’t be an issue. Even if Gurley is slow out of the gates as he has been in games, he should still receive plenty of touches in the final three quarters of the contest.

No wonder Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports has Gurley listed as his fantasy football “Start of the Week:”

"He’s a special talent, and his knee issue looks like a distant memory. The Rams offensive line has also played well, and Gurley should stay hot this week against the Cleveland Browns . It’s a dream matchup since Cleveland has allowed a running back to score double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league for nine games in a row going back to last year, and Gurley should make it 10.We expect his first NFL touchdown to come this week at home, and he should give Rams fans plenty of reason to celebrate. Gurley looks like a budding star, and Fantasy owners should be thrilled to have him playing at a high level heading into Week 7."

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