Minnesota Vikings: Stefon Diggs is a star, not a fluke

I had no idea Minnesota Vikings rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs would ever be this good, and I had even less of a chance of predicting immediate success for him as a rookie. Looking back, Diggs likely slid into the fifth round of the draft and became underrated as a result of his supporting cast in his final year at Maryland, but for as electric as he was throughout his college career, he never looked this polished.

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Diggs put up 87 yards on six receptions in Week 4 against the Denver Broncos, who own the NFL’s best defense and best cornerback duo in Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib. He then decided to absolutely torch a burn-prone Kansas City Chiefs secondary to the tune of seven receptions for 129 yards, putting himself on the map as a fantasy star.

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Now, it’s time to start talking about him as a star both in fantasy and real life, because it’s hard to call him a fluke. I know it’s only been three games, but after watching Diggs dismantle the Detroit Lions in a 6-108-1 performance, it’s hard not to fall head-over-heels for the player most of us slept on in this year’s draft class.

Instead of looking like a late-round rookie, Diggs has looked like a four-year star, and he’s been the type of dynamic, smooth deep threat that the Vikings thought they had in Mike Wallace. It’s not that Wallace, who has quietly posted a 68.4% catch rate, has been bad, but Diggs has clearly asserted himself as the Vikings top weapon.

With Kyle Rudolph struggling to just 4.1 yards per target and Charles Johnson battling injury, Diggs’s emergence has been all the more important for Teddy Bridgewater. Diggs, in fact, boasts a ridiculous 12.0 yards per target on the season. To put that in perspective, Rishard Matthews and James Jones are the only other receivers in the NFL right now with at least 20 targets, a 70% catch rate, and 12.0 yards per target.

Could Diggs be a fluke? It’s highly unlikely. Think about it this way: he’s played in exactly half of the number of games that Wallace has, and yet he already has 32 more receiving yards in 11 less targets. You don’t see that type of efficiency every day.

Now, is Diggs a true No. 1 receiver? We’ll have to wait for the answer to this question, because there’s a difference between being a “lead dog” (like T.Y. Hilton) and being a dynamic No. 2 option. Diggs is well on his way to receiving that designation (a la fellow, more touted rookie wideout Amari Cooper), but it would be premature to peg him as the type of receiver who can carry a passing attack after watching him play in just three games.

It’s important to note that the Vikings don’t need to have someone who is tasked with carrying their passing game, because they have plenty of depth at WR. Wallace, Johnson, and Jarius Wright are all capable targets, but they must all take a back seat to a rookie sensation who is putting up 17.1 yards per reception while also catching 70.4% of everything thrown at him. It will be interesting to see how defenses adjust, but Diggs looks so explosive and sudden that it doesn’t seem like teams can take a player with his tools and better-than-expected polish out of games, particularly when he’s working vertically.

Oct 18, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) catches a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings won 16-10. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Diggs is the type of game-breaking weapon who can stretch defenses and make things happen with the ball in his hands, and he’s, in a way, the type of player the Vikings wanted Cordarrelle Patterson to be. Per Pro Football Focus, no receiver with at least 25 targets has more yards per route run than Diggs, and only six have a higher WR Rating.

His average of 108.0 receiving yards would make him second in the league behind DeAndre Hopkins if he were a qualifier, so Diggs would have to be one elite three-game fluke if he ends up fizzling out.

There’s no doubt that the Vikings rookie will regress to the mean, but his mean should still be quite high.

He’s set himself up for huge expectations, but his stats jump off the screen even more so than his 36-yard touchdown reception in yesterday’s win over the Lions. I like to bet on young players with excellent tools and stats, so I’m willing to buy into Diggs as the Vikings best receiver and as a star in this offense.

Although it isn’t overly difficult to burn the Lions and Chiefs, it’s sure as heck impressive to roast the Broncos in your first game with significant playing time. And back-to-back 100-yard performances? That’s fantastic, no matter the opponent. If he doesn’t make it three straight against the Chicago Bears this week, then I will be surprised.

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