Oakland Raiders and Derek Carr On A Big Upswing

When it comes to the Pro football, there is a belief that seems to be a real truth in today’s NFL: A team will only go as far as their quarterback will take them. Sure, defense has to be there, along with all the other complimentary pieces. But it isn’t a coincidence that during the Oakland Raiders recent 2 game winning streak, their quarterback Derek Carr has been as hot molten lava in just about all aspects of his play.

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The numbers are there, to be sure. 65.5% completion rate. 1,793 yards. 15 TD’s versus only 5 interceptions. All of this adds up to a pretty elite quarterback rating of 105.7, which has all of Raider nation saying “finally!”, as it seems they have been missing that type of player at the QB position since Rich Gannon hung up his cleats.

While on the surface these numbers look good; if you look at some of the next level statistics you realize just how special Derek Carr and the Raiders can be this season if the current trend continues.

One of the best litmus tests for elite quarterbacks in the NFL is how well they perform on 3rd down, and especially on 3rd and long. When it comes to 3rd down and between 7-9 yards, Carr has been nothing short of magical. He and the Raiders have faced that down and distance range 17 times, and he has converted 12 of them. This while stacking 233 yards and 2 touchdowns for a total QB rating of 157.1 (statistics courtesy of profootballreference.com).

Another “Mendoza line” when it comes to top-level QB play is how well an NFL quarterback handles the pressure in the red zone, the area historically understood as the opponents 20 yard line to the goal line. You can’t have turnovers, and throwing into tight coverage is commonplace, as defenders have the back of the end zone to use as the 12th man in coverage. This can limit a QB’s options, and forced throws into small windows can turn into interceptions quickly.

Carr has 6 TD passes and no picks while throwing inside the redzone, and is averaging a TD every 3.5 attempts there for an overall rating 93.8. For a second year quarterback playing on a team known in recent years for squandering scoring opportunities, this is a huge sign of a big turnaround offensively for 2015.

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Lastly, another spot on the field that can scare many an NFL fan when it comes to passing is inside a team’s own 10 yard line. A turnover there and it can all but spell an easy touchdown, if not a chip shot field goal.

Carr has been great there too, albeit there is a fairly small sample size to judge. He is 4 out of 5 for 60 yards while recording 3 1st downs from those 4 completions. More importantly, he has not turned the ball over. And if you expand it out to the Raiders 20 yard line, Carr has maintained his ability to stay turnover free while throwing more than 30 times for over 300 yards. All of this is a sign Carr understands his position on the field and is managing when and where to take on risk.

Derek Carr has been as hot molten lava in just about all aspects of his play.

It’s not a fluke the Oakland Raiders are sitting pretty in the AFC playoff picture after the last two victories. Carr has improved his decision and play making while keeping defenses off-balance with a good mix of intermediate and long passes. I still would like to see more 4th quarter production from the Raiders skill players, including Carr. But as long as they’re building huge leads early they don’t need late game heroics to win.

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Another test awaits in the steel city next week; Carr and his receivers will need to continue their top-level play to beat the Steelers and further cement their playoff chances.