St. Louis Rams: Todd Gurley will go off again despite tougher matchup

There aren’t many players in the NFL who are performing at a higher level than St. Louis Rams rookie Todd Gurley, who has a legitimate case for being the best running back in the league right now. While I would still give that designation to Le’Veon Bell on the strength of both his elite rushing and receiving skills, Gurley just might have overtaken Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson as the NFL’s best pure rusher.

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Just last week, Gurley poured out 133 on the rival San Francisco 49ers, and it’s insane to think that his 128 rushing yards on just 19 carries in Week 7 was his lowest rushing output in any game he received more than six carries. So far in his career, Gurley has been the Rams starting running back in four games, and he’s exceeded 120 rushing yards in each of those games.

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I wouldn’t bet against Gurley making it five straight 120+ yard performances, but he’ll face his toughest test yet this week when the Rams travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Vikings were memorably trampled on by San Francisco 49ers second-year feature back Carlos Hyde, who was the top RB prospect (still can’t believe Bishop Sankey was taken before him) in the previous class, in Week 1, but they’ve been phenomenal against the run since then.

In fact, the Vikings haven’t allowed 100 rushing yards since their bye in Week 5, and the only other time they allowed 100 rushing yards in a game this year was in Week 4 against the Denver Broncos. Now, you could look at the 144 rushing yards they allowed to a Broncos running game that looked completely lost at the time and mark that as a clear failure on their part, but that would be inaccurate. See, the 144 rushing yards they allowed are misleading, since 72 of them came from a single touchdown run from home-run hitter Ronnie Hillman.

That said, Gurley has shown that he can both grind out tough yardage in between the tackles and hit home runs. In Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers, the Rams rode Gurley to 30 carries, and he managed to have a whopping 159 yards (a career-high so far) mostly on the strength of one big run.

But that’s exactly why facing Gurley is so daunting. Not only will he consistently pick up about five yards on most of his runs, he’s a bruiser at 6’1″, 227 pound who will wear down your defense with those rushes. After you’ve been worn out, he’ll torch you with a big run, as he is as explosive as they come and is blessed with unreal agility. The 49ers were on the receiving end of a 71-yard score in Week 8, and it’s possible that he could have another long TD run up his sleeve this week.

With how poorly Nick Foles (dead last among starting QBs in fantasy points per game, by the way) and the weapon-challenged passing attack has played, Gurley will continue to be fed around 20 times per game on rushing attempts. He’s essentially matchup proof at this stage, because, like Peterson and Lynch, he’s a transcendental talent who will pick up yardage and touchdowns in a variety of ways.

Nov 1, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) celebrates after scoring a seventy one yard touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings run defense has undoubtedly stepped up lately, and fellow rookie Eric Kendricks deserves major praise for his role in this. However, the Rams figure to go run-heavy against Minnesota, and Gurley’s high floor guarantees that his fantasy owners will come away satisfied with his work in Week 9.

More likely, they’ll be ecstatic for a fifth straight week, because it’s hard to bet against a running back who is capable of getting much more than the blocking in front of him.

Even though the Vikings have improved against the run since that Week 1 debacle against Hyde, the fact of the matter is that they are still allowing 4.5 yards per carry and are 26th in DVOA against the run, according to Football Outsiders.

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Those are not numbers worth bragging about when facing an RB who is averaging 115 yards per game with 15 runs of at least ten yards.