Arizona Cardinals: Assessing Carson Palmer’s MVP case

There’s no doubt that the Arizona Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and it seems like their roster is stacked with players who have been among the best at their positions. Whether it’s Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu dominating in the secondary, Calais Campbell being his beastly and underrated self, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown roasting defensive backfields, or Chris Johnson turning back the clock, the Cardinals have some of the league’s biggest stars.

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Notice that I didn’t mention Carson Palmer, who is the subject of this piece. What hurts Palmer’s MVP candidacy in the eyes of some is potentially the fact that he’s on such a loaded team. The Cardinals have some of the best weapons in the league on offense, and a defense that is third in yards allowed and first in interceptions (13) is also a big reason for the team’s 6-2 record.

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But fellow MVP candidates Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Andy Dalton, who is easily enjoying the best season of his career, also benefit greatly from their supporting casts. Brady has Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, a strong running game, and a solid defense on his side. Meanwhile, Dalton has the elite A.J. Green on his side, emerging weapons Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert, an equally strong rushing attack, a sick offensive line, and an oft-praised defense to boot.

Each of these three quarterbacks get to play on top squads, and the Cardinals are the only team of the three without an undefeated record. This fact also pushes Palmer down the list when assessing his chances of winning the MVP over Dalton and Brady, who remain the front-runners after both of their teams prevailed in easy victories over inferior opponents.

After resting up on the bye, Palmer and the Cardinals must face the rival Seattle Seahawks, who are their only threat to the NFC West crown. The Seahawks are also coming off of a bye, but their 4-4 start mars the fact that they are still a fully legitimate playoff team and are back on the rise. They will provide Palmer with a big test, and you could argue that he hasn’t been tested outside of a game against the St. Louis Rams renowned defense.

If we’re solely looking at the stats, though, Palmer’s case is an incredibly compelling one. Brady and Dalton have the highest quarterback ratings in the NFL, but Palmer is right behind them with a 110.2 mark. More importantly, QB Rating double-counts completion percentage by accounting for both completion percentage and yards per attempt. If we only look at yards per attempt, Palmer is first in the league with an average of 9.2 yards per pass. Dalton and Tyrod Taylor are next on the list at 8.6 apiece.

The fact that Palmer has a 64.4% completion percentage despite leading the league with 14.2 yards per completion is pretty darn impressive, and it’s why he leads the league in yards per attempt, which is the most basic efficiency stat for QBs. Passers who have a high yards per completion average tend to throw plenty of picks, but Palmer, who is first in the NFL with a touchdown on 7.7% of his pass attempts, has thrown just six picks.

Dalton and Brady throw interceptions less frequently than the former Bengals and Oakland Raiders signal-caller, but that’s still a pretty solid clip for a guy who puts up so many yards per attempt.

Solely basing the numbers on the statistics, we see that Palmer, who is first in the NFL in ESPN’s TQBR, is just as good of an MVP candidate as any other quarterback in this league. For what he lacks in avoiding turnovers, he makes up for in putting up a copious amount of points and yards. Palmer leads an offense that is the NFL’s most explosive, and it’s no surprise that the Cardinals are second in the league in scoring and first in net yards per pass attempt.

In order to win the MVP, Palmer will need to keep up with Dalton and Brady in the arm’s race in more heavily-used metrics to evaluate QBs. Like it or not, everyone quickly points to QB Rating, completion percentage, and interceptions, probably because most people like safe QBs and somewhat undervalue stats like yards per attempt.

Oct 26, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (3) against the Baltimore Ravens at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

But if you look at the tape and the raw efficiency, not much distinguishes Palmer from the others. Brady has to be the front-runner at this stage since his offensive weapons aren’t as accomplished, and because his yards per game and interception rate statistics are mind-blowingly good.

Palmer seems to be third in the MVP rankings behind Brady and Dalton, respectively, and that’s a fair judgment based on how well the Bengals and Patriots have played and how highly those two QBs rank in more popular QB stats.

That said, it’s important to understand that so little separates this trio at the top, and while any tie figures to go to Brady, none of those should detract from how incredible Palmer’s comeback story and 2015 dominance are.

He’s getting plenty of help from his receivers, but check out how effective he’s been throwing it to the likes of Troy Niklas and J.J. Nelson; Palmer is more than just a product of his supporting cast, as evidenced by his ability to avoid sacks while still racking up big plays.